This week saw the dollar rally, bringing the dollar back up to the upper stem of the weekly triangle. Further continuation of this triangle patten should see the dollar turn lower next week.
Friday was day 11 for the daily dollar cycle. This week saw the dollar dance along the 50 MA before testing the 200 MA on Friday. Left translated dollar cycles normally peak by day 8. Since the dollar printed a new daily cycle high on day 11, the odds have now shifted to this daily cycle forming in a right translated manner.
The three year cycle peaked in July. The dollar lost the 200 day MA in September as it declined into the October yearly low. Since the 3 year cycle has peaked and the 200 MA was lost, the dollar should not recover the 200 MA until it emerges from its 3 year cycle low. Therefore a close above the the 200 MA signals that the 3 year low printed in October. A close below the 50 MA signals that the 3 year low is still in front of us.
The daily equity cycle peaked on day 21 and then declined until it found support along the 50 day MA. Stocks on Wednesday began to rally and established a new all-time closing high on Friday, coming just over a point away from a new all time high.
Friday was day 29 for the daily equity cycle. Stocks are now on the verge of printing a new all time high. A day 21 peak shifted the likelihood of this cycle forming in a right translated manner. Should a new high print next week then that locks in a right translated nature. Which has implications on the intermediate cycle, which I discuss in the member’s Weekend Report.
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