Gold has been caught in a triangle consolidation for the past couple of months. Gold is getting closer to the apex of the triangle which means it is getting closer to decision time.
Thursday was day 19 for the daily gold cycle. Gold is in its timing band for a daily cycle low. Normal cycle behavior would see gold print a cycle low that is lowest point since the day 7 peak. That would require a bearish break of this triangle.
However a bullish break of this triangle consolidation would make day 12 the lowest point since the day 7 peak. But for the purpose of marking the daily cycle low on a bullish break, the point that touches the lower stem prior to the bullish break would be the daily cycle low, which currently would be day 19.
I believe that the dollar needs to make a decision on its direction, which will influence which way gold breaks.
A close above the the 200 MA signals that the 3 year low printed in October. A close below the 50 MA signals that the 3 year low is still in front of us. And if the dollar’s three year low is still in front of us, the dollar’s decline into the three year low should propel gold higher.
And platinum and palladium could be leading the way.
Both silver and gold have been consolidating in triangle patterns. But both platinum and palladium printed new highs today. And often times both platinum and palladium lead gold out of a cycle low …