The dollar’s daily cycle peaked on day 7 and then was rejected by the 50 day MA. Since then it has trended lower. Today the dollar broke below the previous daily cycle low forming a failed daily cycle.
Tuesday was day 17 for the dollar’s daily cycle. Tomorrow it will enter its timing band for a daily cycle low, which can stretch for 10 more days. A failed daily cycle signals that the intermediate cycle is in decline.
The dollar printed a 20 week intermediate cycle low in March. Today the dollar broke below that weekly low forming a failed intermediate cycle. That is significant. A failed intermediate cycle signals that the yearly cycle is in decline. With the average intermediate cycle running 20 weeks, that leaves another 12 weeks for the dollar to tank.
Gold’s response to the dollar so far has been muted.
It appears that the 50 day MA still is providing resistance to gold. But now that the dollar has begun its yearly cycle decline, I believe that gold will not be contained much longer.
Our framework of expectations for stocks is to roll over by day 20. Stocks appear to be on the way today.
The daily equity cycle peaked on day 14. Despite the bullish reversal on Monday, stocks formed a swing high. Tuesday saw stocks rejected by the 1885 level in a clear and convincing fashion. Daily cycles that peak before day 20 have an expectation of forming in a left translated manner. Which would lead to a failed daily cycle.