n windows

Gold joined the rest of the precious metals and the Miners by forming a swing low today. This will likely mark its daily cycle low. The Miners delivered some bullish follow through to the swing low printed last Friday.

GDX Sharp Charts Workbench Stock Charts com 20

The clear and convincing follow through makes today day 4 of the new daily Miner cycle. The left translated low printed on Thursday was a failed daily cycle, which signals an intermediate cycle decline.

gdx weekly

The weekly cycle peaked on week 12, making last week week 14. The weekly TSI broke below the zero line, which we normally see during an intermediate cycle decline. The question is could this new daily cycle also mark a new intermediate cycle?

As it turns out, we will need to be open to this possibility. There have been 22 weekly cycles dating back to 2006. Eight out of those 22 weekly cycles ran between 12 – 16 weeks in duration. So if this new daily cycle breaks above the week 14 high of 25.22, it will form a weekly swing low signaling a new intermediate cycle.

On to bonds …

TLT Sharp Charts Workbench Stock Charts com 20

Wednesday was day 18 and bonds found support at the rising 50 MA. Bonds have entered their timing band for a daily cycle low. There is a possibility that a swing low can form here, maintaining a patter of printing higher daily cycle highs and higher daily cycle lows.

weekly bonds

The weekly candle does look bearish. However the weekly trend line is still holding. If bonds do reverse off the daily 50 MA, then that should send bonds higher off the trend line support. Conversely, if the weekly trend line is breached, then that will confirm an intermediate cycle decline.


Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s