The dollar’s initial surge into a new intermediate cycle ran into the 50 day MA and has since stalled. After forming a swing high on Monday, the dollar spent the week printing higher lows and lower highs, forming a mini triangle.
The first daily cycle of a new intermediate cycle usually favors the formation of a right translated daily cycle. However if day 5 remains as the cycle peak then this daily cycle will be left translated. If the dollar can regain the 50 day MA then that will shift the odds towards this daily cycle forming in a right translated manner. And a right translated daily cycle will keep open the possibility of a stealth three year cycle low being left behind in October.
The daily equity cycle peaked on day 31, formed a swing high the next day and declined into the lowest point Thursday since the day 31 peak. Friday say stocks form a swing low.
Thursday was day 35 for the daily equity cycle, which sits squarely in the timing band for a daily cycle low. The peak on day 31 locks in a right translated nature to this daily cycle. Which sets up our cyclical expectation to see a higher daily low print and then see the impending daily cycle go on to print a higher daily cycle high. The True Strength Indicator is about to deliver a bullish crossover which signals a new daily cycle. A break of the declining trend line will confirm a new daily cycle.
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