As the dollar bounced from the oversold status from last Friday’s plunge we needed to keep an open mind to last Friday actually being a daily cycle low. Today the dollar provided clarity to the daily cycle count.
The dollar printed a 17 day left translated daily cycle low on February 19th. After peaking on day 6 the dollar plunged last Friday. After an oversold bounce this week the dollar revealed its true intentions by breaking below Friday’s low. Thursday was day 11 for the daily dollar cycle. The dollar is in its second consecutive failed daily cycle as it heads into its intermediate cycle low. The dollar’s timing band for a low allows for another 7 to 15 days to find a cycle bottom.
The dollar is declining into its intermediate cycle low with the three year cycle low also due later this year. That has not been lost on the CRB.
The CRB has been on an incredible run up for almost 37 straight days. Now I want to show you this chart again with our cycle counts on it.
Following a 35 day left translated daily cycle and a 34 day right translated daily cycle the CRB began another daily cycle in early January. That is when the CRB really took off, going up for 30 days peaking on February 24th. I believe that the CRB then printed an extremely right translated daily cycle low on day 31. The CRB was so bullish that we did not see a trend line break, but instead a sideways consolidation. I base the day 31 daily cycle low labeling on the timing band combined with the TSI Crossover. That makes Thursday day 7 of a new daily cycle.
And I don’t think that it is a coincident that both the CRB and the Miners peaked on February 24th.
February 24th was day 18 for the Miner’s daily cycle. After peaking on day 18 the Miners printed a 22 day daily cycle low on Friday. The Miners appear to have formed a mini triangle consolidation similar to the one formed during the previous daily cycle decline. And today the Miners broke above the declining trend line signaling a new daily cycle.