Dollar Framework


In last night’s report I laid out the Big Picture on the dollar.

We see tonight that the dollar continues developing within our framework.

DXY00 Commodity Futures Price Chart for U S D

Our expectation is that the dollar is in week 18 of an extremely left translated intermediate cycle. The previous daily cycle failed. Our expectation is to see this daily cycle fail on the way to an intermediate cycle decline.

Left translated daily cycles typically peak on or before day 8. The bearish reversal off the 50 MA may have been the cycle peak. A break below 80.234 forms a swing high. Then a break below the (red) trend line confirms the daily cycle decline.

Futures Metals Chart Daily

Silver printed a bullish reversal today. Both platinum and palladium also printed big days as well. Perhaps the precious metals are sniffing out a top on the dollar.

Copper, on the other hand looks weak. Copper is an industrial metal and this could be signaling trouble for stocks.


Thursday was day 15 for the daily equity cycle. Stocks managed an all time closing high. But day 12 intraday high is the current all time high. While our expectation calls for this first daily cycle to form in a right translated manner, I think we will see a decline into a half cycle low before breaking higher.


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