The 2/14/14 Morning Update

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The dollar broke below the previous daily cycle low in the overnight delivering a failed daily cycle.

$$$ Daily

A failed daily cycle signals that the intermediate cycle is in decline. At days 15 the dollar is still three days shy of entering its timing band for a daily cycle low. So we should see more bearish follow through before we begin looking for a daily cycle low.

The precious metals took notice of the dollar’s decline.

GCY00 Commodity Futures Price Chart for Gold C

Friday is day 11 for the daily gold cycle. Gold has continued higher and is now challenging the declining 200 day moving average. I suspect that gold will regain the 200 MA and go on to print a daily cycle peak. And during the next daily cycle decline come back and back test the 200 MA.

Looking back to Wednesday we discussed how the precious metal complex was breaking out of resistance and we were waiting on silver.

SIY00 Commodity Futures Price Chart for Silver

We no longer have to wait. Silver also took notice of the declining dollar.

SIY00 Commodity Futures Price Chart for Silver

Friday is day 11 for silver’s daily cycle. And like gold, I suspect that silver will regain the 200 MA and go on to print a daily cycle peak. And during the next daily cycle decline come back and back test the 200 MA.

Bonds appear ready to leave behind a successful backtest of its 200 MA.

TLT Sharp Charts Workbench Stock Charts com 20

Wednesday was day 29 for the daily bond cycle. Bonds broke below the 200 MA before printing a reversal. Thursday bonds formed a swing low and broke above the declining trend line. Since bonds just left behind a right translated daily cycle our expectation is to see them go on and print a high exceeding the previous daily cycle high.

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