The 1/15/14 Morning Report

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The daily equity cycle peaked on day 8 and has been in decline since. Our expectation is to see this cycle form as a left translated cycle that will break below the previous cycle low, signaling an intermediate cycle decline.

The big day that stocks had on Tuesday may change our expectation.

$ SPX Sharp Charts Workbench Stock Charts com 2

Should stocks follow through on Tuesday and break above 1845 they will break above the declining trend line. Then the likelihood of a failed left translated cycle diminishes. And instead that would signal that Monday was a half day cycle low.

The dollar may have pitched another curve ball at us.

DXY00 | Commodity Futures Price Chart for U S D

The dollar’s daily cycle had peaked on day 8. A swing high and trend break occurred to signal a daily cycle decline. Now this morning the dollar is up and is threatening to break above the declining trend line. A break above the declining trend line indicates that the dollar has left behind another 11 day daily cycle low.

GCY00 | Commodity Futures Price Chart for Gold C

We see that gold has formed a swing high and trend break in the overnight. That signals that daily gold cycle has peaked and will decline into a daily cycle low. We cannot say with certainty that a peak on day 9 will result in a left or right translated cycle.

But the Miners may give us a clue.

GDX Sharp Charts Workbench Stock Charts com 20

The Miners daily cycle formed another higher daily cycle high on Tuesday, which was day 16. A peak on day 16 does shift the odds of this cycle forming in a right translated manner.

The bearish reversal the Miners printed indicates a decline into a daily cycle low is at hand. A break below 22.05 forms a swing high. Then a break of the daily cycle trend line confirms the decline into a daily cycle low.

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One thought on “The 1/15/14 Morning Report

  1. Likesmoney,
    Read an article about money flow into the USA purchasing American assets was a primary reason for the value of the Dollar rise. Any thoughts.
    Thanks, Jack Dog

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