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While gold and the Miners are still searching for a daily cycle low, the CRB Index is the light at the end of the tunnel showing the way.
The CRB had been in decline since August. A new daily low formed in October only to see it peak on day 5. The CRB then dropped. The CRB needed two weeks in the beginning of November to consolidate the move lower by forming a congestion reversal. While the CRB was consolidating the True Strength Indicator was forming a strong bullish divergence. Once clear of the congestion zone, the CRB rallied. Friday saw the CRB print another daily high on day 12.
The weekly cycle is also beginning to show some bullish signals. A weekly swing low has formed which signals that week 21 was the intermediate cycle low. While we do need a break of the declining trend line to confirm a new intermediate cycle, there is a bullish crossover on the weekly True Strength Indicator.
And oil and NATGAS have been leading the charge for the CRB.
Oil’s yearly cycle peaked in September and declined into November. Already we see that December has formed a monthly swing low signaling a new yearly oil cycle.
On to NATGAS
NATGAS has had a nice run out of the early November intermediate low. The bearish reversal at 21 days just may be a daily cycle top. A break below 4.10 forms a swing high. I expect a brief decline before resuming launching into another rally.
At 4 weeks the intermediate cycle is still young. We could see two more daily cycles before the next intermediate low is due.
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