Wednesday the dollar broke below the day 18 low and then reversed. The bullish reversal on Wednesday has, so far, produced no follow through.
So the potential curve ball thrown on Wednesday by the dollar has not materialized. This declining triangle should resolve soon. A break lower confirms day 18 as a right translated daily cycle low. A break higher will shift the daily cycle low to the Wednesday.
I find it helpful to look at the larger timeframes with presented with different interpretations.
An intermediate cycle low printed in October. The dollar then rallied for 2 weeks. A break below 80.38 forms a weekly swing high, signaling a decline into the intermediate cycle low.
Meanwhile, things are looking pretty interesting with gold.
Gold printed a bullish reversal on Monday, day 29. On Tuesday gold then printed a loss of .74%. But on Tuesday when gold was down, there was 123 a million buying on weakness print. http://wsj.com/mdc/public/page/2_3022-mfgppl-moneyflow-20131126.html?mod=mdc_pastcalendar
So gold has a potential daily cycle low that printed on Monday, day 29. A swing low has formed and the large B.O.W. number. It certainly looks as if Monday
was the daily cycle low. A break of the declining trend line confirms this.
And there is something happening with the Miners.
Above is a weekly chart of the Miners. Over the past 7 years the Miners have gotten this oversold on the True Strength Indicator only 2 other times. Emerging out of the 2008 low the Miners rallied for 167% over the course of the year. In 2012 the Miners tacked on a 37% in three short months.
Currently there is a very strong bullish divergence developing. If the dollar forms a weekly swing high, then I believe it will continue into it three year low. That should ignite both gold and the Miners to break out.