The 11/29/13 Morning Report

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Wednesday the dollar broke below the day 18 low and then reversed. The bullish reversal on Wednesday has, so far, produced no follow through.

$$$ daily

So the potential curve ball thrown on Wednesday by the dollar has not materialized. This declining triangle should resolve soon. A break lower confirms day 18 as a right translated daily cycle low. A break higher will shift the daily cycle low to the Wednesday.

I find it helpful to look at the larger timeframes with presented with different interpretations.

$$$ Weekly

An intermediate cycle low printed in October. The dollar then rallied for 2 weeks. A break below 80.38 forms a weekly swing high, signaling a decline into the intermediate cycle low.

Meanwhile, things are looking pretty interesting with gold.

GCY00 Commodity Futures Price Chart for Gold C

Gold printed a bullish reversal on Monday, day 29. On Tuesday gold then printed a loss of .74%. But on Tuesday when gold was down, there was 123 a million buying on weakness print. http://wsj.com/mdc/public/page/2_3022-mfgppl-moneyflow-20131126.html?mod=mdc_pastcalendar

So gold has a potential daily cycle low that printed on Monday, day 29. A swing low has formed and the large B.O.W. number. It certainly looks as if Monday
was the daily cycle low. A break of the declining trend line confirms this.

And there is something happening with the Miners.

hui

Above is a weekly chart of the Miners. Over the past 7 years the Miners have gotten this oversold on the True Strength Indicator only 2 other times. Emerging out of the 2008 low the Miners rallied for 167% over the course of the year. In 2012 the Miners tacked on a 37% in three short months.

Currently there is a very strong bullish divergence developing. If the dollar forms a weekly swing high, then I believe it will continue into it three year low. That should ignite both gold and the Miners to break out.

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3 thoughts on “The 11/29/13 Morning Report

  1. Thanks for the update LM. I’m enjoying your work. I find that although everybody hedges their calls, you are more accurate than some other cycle guys I am following at the moment. I exited my short miners positions yesterday, holding long Natgas, and waiting for the markets to reveal more secrets.

    I have a few minutes to review what I am getting and the following comes up:

    ADMINISTRATION: I would like to organize my subscriptions this weekend and make links, to every web page for which I am paying you, in a distinct folder on my desktop. Currently I have to google “LIKESMOMEY” to get all of your work on one page. Would you kindly send me the links to all of the URL’s of all the webpages included in my subscription separately so that I don’t have to go hunting for them each time? I am following and trading the miners, natgas, crude, main indeces, including your FAS/FAZ, especially $US and EURO. I think you send daily email updates on some things but others are not daily.

    CYCLE TRACKER: Will you be adding NatGas to your cycle matrix tracker? You use the term “CYCLE COUNT” …….what is being counted? Is it # of Days since last low vs # of Days in Timing Band?

    TOOLBOX: I have read your two “TOOLBOX” articles in my search for your vocabulary definitions, but questions still remain..

    Please define your use of the term Cycle Count. You use the term “TIMING BAND” which I believe you mean “CYCLE LOW TO CYCLE LOW”. This makes sense in an uptrend. However, do cycles present in a LOW to LOW in a DOWNTREND? or do they present in a HIGH to HIGH? If they are High to High then a normal downtrend cycle is still right-translated, just like the uptrend cycles. Non-trending markets (sideways) could give you a clue of future breakouts depending on which way they are translating. Also the placement of the peak in the timing band could be the definition of whether the cycle is an uptrend cycle or a downtrend cycle regardless of price.

    You use the term “MY CYCLE STUDIES”. Is there also some place where you show the statistics of your studies which have led to your choice of the cycle length or timing bands you selected for each tradable? For example, how many years long was the database you used to identify the $US timing bands? or the $INDU, or Gold? Did you use Fourier…or MESA…or Hurst…or Seasonality….or Eyeball Method? Do you give credit to any previous Technical Analysis work which influenced your thinking or is your work entirely original from scratch with no plagiarism? Did you use any specific software to build your studies or your current charts?

    BINGO: Is the symbol you call INDY supposed to be INDU which is the DOW JONES INDUSTRIALS? I am using this BINGO chart as a general SENTIMENT indicator. Are there any metrics or statisctics which produce any specific rules about its use? Greatly appreciated and keep up the good work. Ted Kirke

    On Fri, Nov 29, 2013 at 6:34 AM, Cycle Trading

    • Ted, I just saw this email. I am putting the finishing touches to the weekend report. I hope to be able to answer your questions tomorrow.

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