Keeping an Eye on the Dollar

0 eye

Last Wednesday was day 18 for the daily dollar cycle and the dollar printed a trend line break. Thursday saw the dollar form a swing low confirming a new daily cycle.

$$$ day 4

This new daily cycle appears to have peaked on day 1 because it has been in decline since. And is now threatening to break below the day 18 low.

Skitch 2013 11 26 18 34 34

A break below 80.532 forms a failed daily cycle. And a failed daily cycle signals that the intermediate cycle is in decline. With the weekly cycle on week 5 that leaves potentially 13 to 19 weeks before an intermediate cycle low is due.

So what does that mean for the big picture for the dollar?

3 $$$ yearly

The dollar last printed a three year low in May, 2011. The three year cycle peaked in July at month 26. Then it formed a monthly swing high in August while testing the three year cycle trend line. September saw the dollar break below the three year trend line confirming the three year cycle is in decline. Here in November we see that the dollar has back tested the three year trend line. Now a failed daily cycle should head into a three year cycle low.

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