The dollar formed a swing low on Monday and delivered follow through today.
The swing low and declining trend line break mark the daily cycle low. With the dollar now in the timing band for an intermediate cycle low let’s take a look at what will need to happen to signal a new intermediate cycle.
The first thing needed would be for the dollar to form a monthly swing low. A break above 79.82 forms a monthly swing low.
… a break above the declining weekly trend line confirms a new intermediate cycle.
I was not surprised to see weakness in the Miners with the dollar rallying.
Monday saw the Miners close above the 50 MA. Tuesday we see the Miners reverse, forming a swing high and losing the 50 MA. The Miners also delivered a bearish TSI crossover that is another signal of a impending cycle decline. As long as the Miners stay above the previous cycle low of 22.88 then the intermediate cycle will remain bullish. A break below 22.88 signals a failed cycle.
Still, the Miners do tend to fill gaps. And there is a gap up from 23.86 back on 10/17. So a decline to 23.68 could be in the cards.