The dollar peaked in early July. Since then the trend has been lower. The dollar printed three consecutive left translated, failed daily cycles. The most recent failed cycle was stretched at 32 days. The raises the possibility of sellers being exhausted and for something more than an oversold bounce to occur.
Since most left translated daily cycles peak by day 8, the dollar will need to peak by Tuesday for this pattern of lower highs and lower lows to continue. If the dollar rallies past day 8 that will the shift odds of this being the first daily cycle of a new intermediate cycle.
The dollar did form a swing high on Friday. A break below the daily cycle trend line would confirm the daily cycle decline. But you will notice that the dollar closed well off the lows, suggesting the dollar is gathering itself for another push higher.
Stocks
Stocks have rallied 3.46% since the intra-day low on Wednesday.
Wednesday was day 29 for the daily equity cycle, which is one day shy of the normal timing band for a daily cycle low. Thursday’s impulsive move higher formed a swing low and breached the daily cycle trend line in a clear and convincing manner. That confirms a new daily cycle. Since the previous cycle formed as a right translated cycle, our cyclical expectation is to see this new daily cycle go on to print a higher daily cycle high.
Below is the Likesmoney Cycle Tracker. This is a weekly feature for subscribers that tracks the daily, intermediate and yearly cycles. The first number is the current cycle peak and the second number is the current cycle count.
Let’s look at the dollar for example:
05/06 – The dollar’s current daily cycle peak is day 5. The dollar printed day 6 on Friday.
The entire Weekend Report can be found at Likesmoney Subscription Services
The Weekend Report discusses Dollar, Stocks, Gold, Miners, The CCI Index, & Bonds in terms of daily, weekly and yearly cycles.
Also included in the Weekend Report is the Likesmoney CycleTracker
To subscribe: http://likesmoneysubscriptionservices.wordpress.com/
For subscribers: the full Weekend Report can be found at Likesmoney Subscription Services at http://likesmoney.wordpress.com/
A free sample report can be found here: http://likesmoneystudies.wordpress.com/
I am a new trader, very confused with your left and right translated cycle. Thanks.? Why its a new daily cycle, and there is this 29RT?
Maggi,
Welcome aboard, glad to have you here.
Walter Bressert does a nice job explaining right and left translated cycles. http://www.walterbressert.com/pdf/Manual.PDF
The reference to 29 RT means a 29 day Right Translated cycle.
Cycle analysis focuses on the cycle low.
There is a timing band for a daily cycle low for an asset class.
The timing band for stocks is 30 – 45 days.