Waiting on the Dollar


As we previously discussed, the dollar tanked last Wednesday, Fed Day.

DXY00 Commodity Futures Price Chart for U S D

Since Fed Day, Day 21, the dollar has given a weak bounce. Last Wednesday was the lowest point of the cycle. We are waiting for the dollar to either break above 81.22 to form a daily cycle low. Or the dollar needs to break below 80.06 to continue its daily cycle decline.

Even though gold was down today, it still maintains a bullish posture.

$ GOLD Sharp Charts Workbench Stock Charts com

Gold is emerging from its recent daily cycle low. As long as gold does not break below last Wednesday’s low, then gold remains in an uptrend. A break below Wednesday’s low signals that gold has entered its intermediate cycle decline.

Stocks have closed lower for three straight days.


Our framework is calling for a left translated daily cycle to form. So far equites are obliging. We still need to wait for a break of the daily cycle trend line to confirm that the daily cycle has entered its primary decline.

And now I want to draw your attention to Bonds

Bonds have been caught in a yearly cycle decline printing lower highs and lower lows.
Then on Sept. 11 bonds printed a bullish reversal and have been trending higher.

TLT Exchange Traded Funds ETF Price Chart fo

The reversal on Sept 11 was the first higher low since April. Monday was day 8 and bonds set another high for the current daily cycle. A break above 106.68 forms a higher high and signals a change in trend. Should bonds will break above 106.68 during the current daily cycle then waiting on the next daily cycle low should provide a good low risk entry.

That will be something worth keeping an eye on …



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