Breather …

0 breather

Dollar delivered an oversold bounce on Thursday

DXY00 |daily

The dollar is in the timing band for a low. It will likely print a daily cycle low over the next 4 – 6 days. Since the dollar printed a higher low on Thursday it could be day 1 or day 22. If Wednesday stands as the daily cycle low then the dollar has to travel almost .90 to form a swing low. However, I think that today was a breather and we are likely to get one more push lower. The Selling on Strength numbers on the dollar seem to suggest that as well.

$$$ Sos

A 38 print on UUP is a rather large number. Should the dollar break marginally past Wednesday’s low it will ease the parameters to forming a daily cycle low. With the dollar on week 13 of the intermediate cycle and new daily cycle should roll over quickly into a left translated daily cycle.

Despite the dollar being up today, the CRB continued higher out of its daily cycle low.

$ CRB Sharp Charts Workbench Stock Charts com 2

We see that the CRB pierced the declining cycle trend line signaling that the new daily cycle has launched. I would like to see the CRB close above the declining trend line in a clear and convincing fashion to confirm then new daily cycle. If the dollar’s daily cycle low is still ahead of us then we will likely to see a bullish follow through on the CRB.

Stocks also continued higher today, but then reversed lower into the close.

SPX Index Price Chart for S P 500 Index

Because of the aging yearly cycle our cyclical expectation is for the current daily equity cycle to form as a left translated cycle. A peak before day 20 would indicate a left translated nature to the daily cycle. Thursday was day 16 for the daily equity cycle. A swing high here could lead to a daily cycle decline. A break below 1722.20 forms a daily swing high.

If stocks enter into a left translated daily cycle decline, that could send more money into precious metals.

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