The 4/24/15 Weekend Report Preview

The Dollar
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The dollar’s daily cycle peaked on day 11. It lost the 10 day Moving Average on day 14 and has not been able to regain it. The dollar then broke below the lower blue trend line on Friday which signals that the dollar has entered its final decline into a daily cycle low.

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The dollar has entered it timing band to print a daily cycle low. A break above 97.74 forms a swing low and then a declining trend line break will confirm a new daily cycle.

However, the dollar can still go lower here. A break below the previous daily cycle low of 93.32 forms a failed daily cycle, which would confirm the intermediate cycle decline.

Stocks
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Stocks have been printing a series of lower highs and higher lows over the past 8 weeks. A week ago Friday stocks once again found support at the lower stem and reversed higher. Stocks tested the upper stem on Tuesday and once again on Wednesday.

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Stocks broke above the upper trend line on Thursday and delivered more bullish follow through on Friday, day 20. A new daily cycle high on day 20, or later, shifts the likelihood that this daily cycle will form as a right translated cycle.

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Stocks Deliver Bullish Surprise

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At week 27, stocks are due to roll over into an intermediate cycle decline. The first step to do so would be to print a failed daily cycle. Therefore our expectation was to see a bearish resolution to the current consolidation.

Instead, today stocks delivered a bullish surprise.

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Thursday was day 19 for the daily equity cycle and stocks broke out to a new daily cycle high. A new high today, or later, begins to shift the likelihood that this daily cycle will form as a right translated daily cycle, printing a higher low. If that happens then the earliest we could see a failed daily cycle would be the next daily cycle.

Gold also was bullish today.

gold

Gold printed its lowest point on day 19, following the day 13 daily cycle high. Instead of breaking out in a clear and convincing manner, gold continued to consolidate. The bullish reversal today allowed gold to regain the 50 day MA. A break above the declining (blue) trend line will confirm a new daily cycle.

Commodity Update

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The CRB peaked on day 20 and then formed a swing high. It broke the accelerated (dashed) trend line today signaling a daily cycle decline.

A peak on day 20 (or later) assures us of a right translated nature to this daily cycle. Wednesday was day 24 for this daily cycle. The CRB is in its timing band to print daily cycle low. At this point a swing low should mark the daily cycle low. Since we are assured of a right translated cycle, our expectation is to see the next daily cycle go on to print a higher daily cycle high.

Squeeze Play

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The intermediate equity cycle peaked back in February on week 19. Then it formed a weekly swing high indicating that it began its intermediate cycle decline. This is currently week 27 and we are still waiting on a clear and convincing break of the intermediate cycle trend line to confirm the intermediate cycle decline.

spx weekly

Stocks have been held in check by resistance from the upper declining intermediate trend line. At the same time stocks are being squeezed by the support form the rising weekly trend line. Stocks are closing in to the point where this squeeze play needs to be resolved.

The daily cycle is on day 17. Allowing 3 to 4 weeks for this daily cycle to complete would see this weekly cycle extend out to weeks 30 to 31, which would be very late in its weekly timing band. Which increases the likelihood that this daily cycle will fail and confirming an intermediate cycle decline.

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Miner Bullish Sign

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The intermediate Miner cycle peaked on week 11. The it rolled over declined and printed its lowest point in early March on week 18. We have since been awaiting confirmation of a new intermediate cycle. Today the Miners delivered two bullish signs that this is a new intermediate cycle.

gdx weekly

The weekly True Strength Indicator delivered a bullish zero line crossover today. Should the weekly TSI remain above the zero line that will indicate that the Miners are entering general bullish conditions.

The low that formed on week 18 is in the timing band for an intermediate cycle low. Breaking above the declining intermediate cycle trend line today does signal a new intermediate cycle. With the resistance at the 20 level being so close, a close above the 20 level will confirm the new intermediate cycle.

For this week I am offering a special 6 week trial subscription for $15.00.

The Weekend Report discusses Dollar, Stocks, Gold, Miners, The CRB Index, & Bonds in terms of daily, weekly and yearly cycles. Also included in the Weekend Report is the Likesmoney CycleTracker

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The 4/17/15 Weekend Report Preview

The Dollar
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The dollar’s daily cycle peaked on day 11 and printed its lowest point on Friday, day 15. A peak on day 11, or later, begins to shift the likelihood that this daily cycle will form as a right translated cycle.

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The bullish reversal on Friday found support at the 50 day MA and the lower stem of the developing triangle consolidation. An early daily cycle low could be left behind as the dollar prints higher lows and lower highs as it continues this triangle consolidation.

Stocks
stockshttp://postimg.org/image/69wujdu9x/

Stocks are clearly consolidating in a triangle. Friday was day 15 for the daily equity cycle. Stocks tagged the lower stem of the triangle consolidation on Friday. The over 1 Billion B.O.W. that printed on Friday suggest that we will see a bounce here.

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If the current peak of day 13 remains, then stocks will likely form a left translated daily cycle. A break below the previous daily cycle low of 2045.50 forms a failed daily cycle and confirms the intermediate cycle decline.

With the intermediate cycle at week 26 our expectation is for a bearish resolution to this consolidation. In the Weekend Report I will discuss how a bearish resolution to this consolidation can result in a bullish development as we look at the weekly cycle.

Stocks are staring at an intermediate cycle decline. Gold and commodities appear to be leaving behind an intermediate cycle low. The Weekend Report tracks all of this, providing a framework of expectations.

For this week I am offering a special 6 week trial subscription for $15.00.

The Weekend Report discusses Dollar, Stocks, Gold, Miners, The CRB Index, & Bonds in terms of daily, weekly and yearly cycles. Also included in the Weekend Report is the Likesmoney CycleTracker

For the 6 week trial subscription click here.

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You can email me at likesmoney@gmail.com to receive a sample copy of the Weekend Report

Commodity Bottom

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This daily cycle has now seen the CRB close convincingly above the 50 day MA. The last time that the CRB did this was back in June, 2014.

CRB

Today is day 20 for the CRB’s daily cycle. A new high on day 20 locks in a right translated nature to this daily cycle. After consecutive left translated failed daily cycles, this right translated cycle means that the CRB is in a new intermediate cycle.

It is no coincidence that the CRB emerging out of its intermediate cycle low as the dollar appears to be finally rolling over.

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The dollar’s previous daily cycle peaked on day 13 at 100.72. This current daily cycle peaked on day 11 at 100.27, printing a lower high. Now with a swing high and a bearish zero line crossover on the TSI, the dollar is headed into its daily cycle low. And at day 14, the dollar appears to be threatening to breach the 50 day MA, which the dollar has not done since last July.

Poised

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The daily gold cycle peak on day 13, formed a swing high, and then declined into a daily cycle low. Gold printed its lowest point on Tuesday, day 19, following the day 13 peak. Gold is now poised to confirm a new daily cycle.

gld

At 19 days, gold has entered its timing band to print a daily cycle low. Wednesday saw Gold regain the 50 day MA and form a swing low. Now a break above the declining trend line will confirm a new daily cycle.

If day 19 is confirmed as the daily cycle low, then gold would have printed a right translated daily cycle. Therefore our expectation is to see gold go on to print a higher daily cycle high in this new daily cycle.

Different Directions

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The dollar’s daily cycle peaked on Monday, day 11. The swing high that formed today makes it appear that the dollar is about to embark on its daily cycle decline.

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The previous daily cycle formed as a right translated cycle. The expectation is to see this daily cycle go on to form a higher daily cycle high. However, if Monday remains as the cycle peak, then the dollar would have printed a lower high, which signals an intermediate cycle decline.

The dollar looks to be ready to roll over into an intermediate cycle decline. Bonds seem to be headed in a different direction as it emerges from its intermediate cycle low.

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Bonds printed an intermediate cycle low on March 6th. The rally that followed peaked on day 18. This locked in a right translated nature to this daily cycle. Then a swing high formed and bonds began their daily cycle decline. Bonds printed their lowest point on Thursday, day 23, as it breached the 50 day MA. Bonds regained the 50 day MA on Friday. The swing low today broke above the declining trend line to confirm today as day 3 of a new daily cycle.

Right on Cue

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I have had a few emails inquiring about the count of the daily equity cycle, wondering if today was day 22 or even day 48. While we have our daily cycle count at day 11, we cannot rule out the possibility that today was either day 22 or day 48. Admittedly our daily cycle count lacks some clarity, however what is clear is that stocks are printing lower highs. We were also watching for a reversal at the upper trend line. So today, right on cue, stocks printed a bearish reversal.

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We are waiting on a break out of consolidation to provide some clarity to our daily cycle count. The bearish reversal postpones that. But the reversal is in alignment with what we see developing on the weekly chart. And it is what we see on the weekly chart that has me thinking that today is day 11.

spx weekly

Stocks printed their yearly cycle low in early October. The intermediate equity cycle peaked on week 18 after emerging out of that October low. This is week 25 for the intermediate equity cycle. Stocks began this week by being rejected by the declining (blue) weekly trend line.

At week 25, stocks are in their timing band to print an intermediate cycle low. If our daily cycle count is accurate with today being day 11, then stocks will need another 4 – 6 weeks before printing a daily cycle low. A peak on day 11 would lock in a left translated formation to the daily cycle, making it likely to see a failed daily cycle form. And a failed daily cycle confirms the intermediate cycle decline.