Miner Support


 

The Miners printed a bullish reversal off of support from the 10 day MA on Thursday to print a new daily cycle high.

Thursday was day 21 for the daily Miner cycle, placing the Miners in the early part of its timing band for a daily cycle low. The new high on day 21 assures us of a right translated daily cycle formation. However there are bearish divergences that are emerging on the oscillators, which often precede a cycle decline. A swing high accompanied by a close below the 10 day MA will signal the daily cycle decline. The Miners have established a daily uptrend. They will remain in their daily uptrend as long as they do not close below the lower daily cycle band.

Natgas Forms A Swing Low

Things are beginning to add up with Natgas.

* Bullish divergence on the oscillators
* Very deep in the timing band
* Capitulation volume with a bullish reversal on UGAZ
* Followed by a swing low.

A break above the declining trend line will have us label day 40 as the daily cycle low.

Record Volume on UGAZ

Monday was a record volume day for the triple ETN UGAZ.

These record volume days on the triple ETN’s/ETF’s often mark cycle turning points.

Natgas printed its lowest point on day 34 — which placed it in its timing band for a daily cycle low. The rally out of the day 34 low was stopped at the triple resistance from the converging 10 day MA, 50 day MA and the 200 day MA. That sent Natgas lower on Monday to undercut the day 34 low. Monday was day 40 – which is very deep in the timing band for a daily cycle low. There are bullish divergences that are beginning to develop on the oscillators which often precede the cycle low. And Natgas also printed a bullish reversal on Monday, which eases the parameters for forming a swing low. A break above 2.23 would form a swing low to signal the new daily cycle.

In the Mid-Week Update I plan to discuss where Natgas is in its longer term, intermediate cycle.

The Dollar

 
The dollar printed a bearish reversal on day 8 then delivered bearish follow through on Monday by closing below the converging 50 day MA and 10 day MA. 
 

Closing below the converging 10 day MA and the 50 day MA on Monday confirmed the daily cycle decline. The dollar continue lower to close below the 200 day MA on Thursday. With a peak on day 8, closing below the 200 day MA looked like the dollar would be rolling over into an intermediate cycle decline. But then the ECB intervened — causing the dollar to close convincingly above the 200 day MA on Friday. While 13 days is too early to expect a DCL, the manipulation in the currency markets could force an early DCL. A break above 97.82 will form a swing low to signal the new daily cycle.

The dollar did close below the lower daily cycle band. That does end the daily uptrend and begin a daily downtrend. It also signals that the intermediate cycle decline has begun.

Stocks

 
 
Stocks formed a swing high on Friday and then delivered bearish follow through on Monday to close below the 10 day MA to signal the daily cycle decline.
 

 
 
Stocks printed their lowest point on Tuesday, following the day 39 peak. That was day 42, placing stocks deep in their timing band for a daily cycle low.  A swing low formed on Wednesday. Then stocks closed back above the 10 day MA to confirm day 42 as the DCL.  Stocks are currently in a daily uptrend.  Stocks will remain in their daily uptrend unless they close below the lower daily cycle band.

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New Daily Cycle

 
 
Stocks formed a swing high on Friday and then delivered bearish follow through on Monday to close below the 10 day MA to signal the daily cycle decline.
 
 
 
Stocks printed their lowest point on Tuesday, following the day 39 peak. That was day 42, placing stocks deep in their timing band for a daily cycle low.  A swing low formed on Wednesday to signal the new daily cycle. A close above the 10 day MA will have us label day 42 as the DCL.  Stocks are currently in a daily uptrend.  Since the swing low formed above the lower daily cycle band, that indicates that stocks remain in their daily uptrend and triggers a cycle band buy signal. 
 

The Perfect Trade Entry

The perfect trade entry for the new intermediate Miner cycle would have been when the Miners formed a weekly swing low during the 3rd week of November. But the Miners did not close above the 10 week MA nor above the declining weekly trend line so in real time we could not be certain that week 28 hosted the ICL.

This week the Miners are already up 2.55% and have broken clearly above both the 10 week MA and the declining weekly trend line to make this week 3 for the new intermediate cycle. But I suspect that there are some out there that missed the “perfect entry” and are still looking to get in but the perfect trade entry is still holding them back.

Looking back at the previous intermediate cycle low from April we can see that the Miners coiled for 3 weeks before finally closing above the 10 week Ma on the 4th week. Then the Miners gapped up on the 5th week. Even if someone entered after the gap back in June the Miners still ran rallied for over 30%.

Currently the Miners are on week 3 for a new intermediate cycle. The intermediate cycle should daly for 15 – 18 weeks which makes me think that entering now is still good enough.

Daily Cycle Correction

On Saturday we noted that stocks had formed a daily swing high. They delivered bearish follow through on Monday.

Monday was day 41 for the daily equity cycle. That places stocks in their timing band for a daily cycle low. Closing below the 10 day MA indicates that stocks have begun their daily cycle decline. The daily cycle decline typically lasts 7 – 10 days. The peak on day 39 locks in a right translated cycle formation which gives us the expectation that stocks will form a higher daily daily cycle low. Stocks are in a daily uptrend. If stocks form a swing low above the lower daily cycle band then stocks will remain in their daily uptrend and trigger a cycle band buy signal.

The 11/30/19 Weekend Report Preview

The Dollar

The dollar printed a bearish reversal on Friday.


 
Friday was day 8 for the dollar’s daily cycle. Friday’s bearish reversal eases the parameters for forming a daily swing high. A break below 98.15 will form a swing high. Then a close below the converging 10 day MA and 50 day MA will confirm the daily cycle decline. A peak on day 8 sets up a left translated daily cycle formation. The dollar is in a daily uptrend. It will remain so unless it closes below the lower daily cycle band.

Stocks

After a brief decline into the day 34 pivot, which allowed the 10 MA to catch up to price, stocks have rallied higher.

Friday was day 40 for the daily equity cycle, placing stocks deep in their timing band for a daily cycle low. Stocks did form a swing high on Friday. Stocks will need to close below the 10 day MA to signal the daily cycle decline. Stocks are in a daily uptrend. If stocks form a swing low above the lower daily cycle band then stocks will remain in their daily uptrend and trigger a cycle band buy signal.

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The goal of the Weekend Report is to develop an on-going framework of expectations using cycle analysis.

Gold – The Big Picture

Gold printed its lowest point on week 28, placing it late in its timing band for an intermediate cycle low.

Gold did form a weekly swing low last week to signal a new intermediate cycle. But so far this week, gold has not been able to deliver any sustained bullish follow through. Gold will need to close above the 10 week MA and the above the declining weekly trend line to confirm the new intermediate cycle. Gold is in a weekly uptrend. Forming a weekly swing low above the lower weekly cycle band indicates that gold will remain in its weekly uptrend and trigger a weekly cycle band buy signal.

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Here is what is included in the Weekend Report Subscription

1) The Weekend Report, which is posted usually Saturday mornings. It discusses Dollar, Stocks, Gold, Miners, Oil, & Bonds in terms of daily, weekly and yearly cycles – and it includes the Likesmoney Combination Cycle Tracker & Trend Tracker.

2) The Mid-Week Update. Posted on Wednesdays is a review of the charts for the above mentioned asset classes.

3) The Weekend Updates, posted on Sundays, take a look of the daily & weekly charts of the Dax, GYX, NATGAS & XLE.

4) Weekly Update of the Bullish Percentile Bingo

5) Frequent updates of my proprietary FAS Buy/Sell Indicator

The goal of the Weekend Report is to develop an on-going framework of expectations using cycle analysis.

Miner Surprise

The Miners delivered a bullish surprise on Tuesday.

We discussed on Monday that the Miners broke below the lower daily cycle band to signal a continuation of its daily cycle decline. Closing below the lower daily cycle band also delivered the expectation for the Miners to break below the day 20 low in order to complete their daily cycle decline. Instead of breaking lower on Tuesday, the Miners delivered a bullish surprise by closing up 2.21% for the day.

The volatility over the past 2 weeks has obscured our daily cycle count. A break below the day 20 low would have had us label Tuesday as day 29. But Tuesday’s bullish surprise keeps the door open for the daily cycle count to be day 9. And if the daily cycle count is day 9, that would indicate that the Miners have left behind their intermediate cycle low.

The Miners printed their lowest point on week 28, to place them deep in their timing band for an intermediate cycle low. While the Miners formed a weekly swing low, they still need to deliver a clear and convincing break above the declining weekly trend line to signal the new intermediate cycle. A close above the 10 week MA will confirm the intermediate cycle low. The Miners are in a weekly uptrend. Since the weekly swing low formed above the lower weekly cycle band — the Miners remain in their weekly uptrend and triggered a weekly cycle band buy signal. A break above the multi year resistance level indicates a resumption of the bull market.

The Likesmoney Black Friday Sale for New Subscribers

Black Friday Sale — get an extra month on the 3 month subscription – 4 months for $60 — click here.
Black Friday Sale — get an extra two months on the 6 month subscription – 8 months for $100 — click here.

Here is what is included in the Weekend Report Subscription

1) The Weekend Report, which is posted usually Saturday mornings. It discusses Dollar, Stocks, Gold, Miners, Oil, & Bonds in terms of daily, weekly and yearly cycles – and it includes the Likesmoney Combination Cycle Tracker & Trend Tracker.

2) The Mid-Week Update. Posted on Wednesdays is a review of the charts for the above mentioned asset classes.

3) The Weekend Updates, posted on Sundays, take a look of the daily & weekly charts of the Dax, GYX, NATGAS & XLE.

4) Weekly Update of the Bullish Percentile Bingo

5) Frequent updates of my proprietary FAS Buy/Sell Indicator

The goal of the Weekend Report is to develop an on-going framework of expectations using cycle analysis.