Gold Finds Support

Gold printed a bullish reversal off of support on Tuesday.

The 1800 level had been a resistance level in early 2020. Now it has turned into a support level.

Gold printed a bullish reversal off of support of the 200 day MA on day 28. After crawling along the 200 day MA last week gold undercut the day 28 low. Tuesday was day 33, which places gold in its timing band for a daily cycle low. Tuesday’s bullish reversal eases the parameters for forming a swing low. A break above 1845.00 will form a swing low to signal a new daily cycle. However gold is facing triple resistance from the 200 day MA and the converging 10 day MA and the 50 day MA. No rally will be able to gain any traction until gold can close above these 3 moving averages.

The 1/16/21 Weekend Report Preview

The Dollar

The dollar closed above the 10 day MA on the previous Friday and delivered bullish follow through this week to confirm the new daily cycle.

The dollar remains caught between the rising 10 day MA and the declining 50 day MA. Currently, the dollar is in a daily downtrend. A close above the upper daily cycle band and the 50 day MA would end the daily downtrend and signal that the dollar has also begun a new intermediate cycle. Rejection by the declining 50 day MA will indicate a continuation of the intermediate cycle decline.

Stocks

Stocks have not delivered anything that we could recognize as a DCL — but that may change.

Stocks have been stair stepping higher and then consolidating in order to allow the 10 day MA to catch up to price. Which happened again this week. But stocks formed a swing high and closed below the 10 day MA on Friday, piercing the daily cycle trend line. Any bearish follow through will confirm the daily cycle decline. Stocks are in a daily uptrend. If a swing low forms above the lower daily cycle band then stocks will remain in their daily uptrend and trigger a cycle band buy signal.

If a swing low forms ABOVE the upper daily cycle band that indicates that breakout continues to advance.

Miner Rejection

Rejection by the 50 day MA has extended the Miners daily cycle decline.

The Miners closed lower on Thursday then delivered bearish follow through on Friday. The miners closed below the day 32 low on Friday signaling a continuation of the daily cycle decline. The Miners also closed below the lower daily cycle band. Closing below the lower daily cycle band ends the daily uptrend and indicates that the intermediate cycle decline is extending.

I breakdown what is happening with the intermediate cycle in the Weekend Report.

Stocks- The Big Picture

Stocks have been consolidating in a narrow range for the past 6 days.

Stocks have been stair-stepping higher, consolidating in order to allow the 10 day MA to catch up to price, and then star-stepping higher some more. Thursday was day 51 placing stocks deep in their timing band for a daily cycle low. At this point we would need to see a close below the 10 day MA and some bearish follow through to signal the daily cycle decline.

Until that happens, then the break out of the megaphone pattern will continue to advance. 

Miner Reversal

The Miners printed a bullish reversal on Tuesday.

Tuesday’s bullish reversal sets the Miners up for printing a daily cycle low. While the 10 day MA has not turned appreciably lower, the Miners closed below the 10 day MA, 200 day MA and the 50 day MA and breached the daily cycle trend line. And at 32 days, that places the Miners in their timing band for a daily cycle low. A swing low and close back above the 50 day MA will signal a new daily cycle. The Miners have been in a daily uptrend. If a swing low forms above the lower daily cycle band then the Miners will remain in their daily uptrend and trigger a cycle band buy signal.

The Dollar Rallies

The dollar formed a swing low on Thursday then closed above the 10 day MA on Friday to signal a new daily cycle.

There are bullish divergences that have been developing on the weekly oscillators that often precede an intermediate cycle low. And the dollar went on to form a weekly swing low on Monday.  A close above the 10 week MA would signal that week 18 was the ICL. 

In my special report Gold v Dollar I will look at what is going on with the dollar. We will discuss the possibility that the dollar has not only formed a DCL but a yearly cycle low as well. And if so, that would spell trouble for precious metals.

This week I am offer the Special Report Gold v Dollar and a 6 week Trial Subscription Special for $15.

Your 6 week trial subscription you will give you full access to the premium site which includes:

1) The Weekend Report, which is posted usually Saturday mornings. It discusses Dollar, Stocks, Gold, Miners, Oil, & Bonds in terms of daily, weekly and yearly cycles – Which includes the Likesmoney Cycle Tracker.

2) The Mid-Week Update. Posted on Wednesday’s is a review of the daily charts for the above mentioned asset classes.

3)The Weekend Updates take a look of the daily & weekly charts of GBTC, DAX, GYX, NATGAS & XLE.

4) Weekly Update of the Bullish Percentile Bingo

5) Frequent updates of my proprietary FAS Buy/Sell Indicator

The goal of the Weekend Report is to develop an on-going framework of expectations using cycle analysis.

>>> For the Special Report Gold v Dollar and a 6 week Trial Subscription Special for $15. click here.

Gold Delivered A Bearish Surprise

Gold broke convincingly above the declining trend line on Monday and to make it appeare that November 30th was the ICL and that gold was now beginning a daily uptrend.

Then gold was attacked at the 1962 resistance level on Wednesday and again on Friday. This caused gold to slice through the 10 day MA and the 50 day MA to close below the 200 day MA. Gold also closed below the lower daily cycle band which ends its daily uptrend and begins a daily downtrend.

This was a bearish surprise. I have no doubt this was manipulation. But the reason why this attack was so successful may lie with the dollar.

The dollar printed its lowest point on Wednesday, day 52.  That places it very deep in its timing band for a DCL.The dollar formed a swing low on Thursday and then a closed above the 10 day MA to signal the new daily cycle.

In my special report Gold v Dollar I will look at what is going on with the dollar. We will discuss the possibility that the dollar has not only formed a DCL but a yearly cycle low as well. And if so, that would spell trouble for precious metals.

This week I am offer the Special Report Gold v Dollar and a 6 week Trial Subscription Special for $15.

Your 6 week trial subscription you will give you full access to the premium site which includes:

1) The Weekend Report, which is posted usually Saturday mornings. It discusses Dollar, Stocks, Gold, Miners, Oil, & Bonds in terms of daily, weekly and yearly cycles – Which includes the Likesmoney Cycle Tracker.

2) The Mid-Week Update. Posted on Wednesday’s is a review of the daily charts for the above mentioned asset classes.

3)The Weekend Updates take a look of the daily & weekly charts of GBTC, DAX, GYX, NATGAS & XLE.

4) Weekly Update of the Bullish Percentile Bingo

5) Frequent updates of my proprietary FAS Buy/Sell Indicator

The goal of the Weekend Report is to develop an on-going framework of expectations using cycle analysis.

>>> For the Special Report Gold v Dollar and a 6 week Trial Subscription Special for $15. click here.

Current subscribers can access the report here.

The 1/09/21 Weekend Report Preview

The Dollar

The dollar printed its lowest point on Wednesday, day 52.  That places it very deep in its timing band for a DCL.

The dollar formed a swing low on Thursday and then a closed above the 10 day MA to signal the new daily cycle. Currently, the dollar is in a daily downtrend. The dollar will remain in its daily downtrend until it can close back above its upper daily cycle band

Stocks

Stocks closed above the upper consolidation box on Thursday and delivered bullish follow through on Friday.

Stocks have not delivered a recognizable DCL therefor the status of the daily cycle is not clear. Notice that RSI did not even make all the way to oversold before reversing. What is clear is that stocks are in a daily uptrend that has been characterized by highs forming above the upper daily cycle band and lows forming above the lower daily cycle band — and more recently lows forming above the upper daily cycle band.

Which signals that break out of the megaphone pattern continues to advance. 

The entire Weekend Report can be found at Likesmoney Subscription Services

The Weekend Report discusses Dollar, Stocks, Gold, Miners, Oil, & Bonds in terms of daily, weekly and yearly cycles.
Also included in the Weekend Report is the Likesmoney CycleTracker

For subscribers click here.

You can email me at likesmoney@gmail.com to receive a sample copy of the Weekend Report

Raise Stops — Again

Stocks once again broke above a consolidation zone.

Stocks are in a daily uptrend that has been characterized by highs forming above the upper daily cycle band and lows forming above the lower daily cycle band — and more recently lows forming above the upper daily cycle band. Closing above the upper consolidation box allow us to move stops to the top of the upper consolidation zone.

And there’s nothing wrong with that picture …

Go Long

Stocks closed below the 10 day MA and back in the upper consolidation box on Monday, stopping us out.

However stocks regained the 10 day MA and managed to close back above the upper consolidation box on Tuesday. Notice that RSI did not even make all the way to oversold before reversing.

Which signals that break out of the megaphone pattern continues to advance.