The 5/27/16 Weekend Report Preview

The Dollar
$$$

The dollar printed a higher high on Friday, day 18. This assures us of a right translated daily cycle formation. The dollar also closed back above the upper daily cycle band. This signals that the dollar remains in a daily uptrend.

The break out to a new daily cycle high negates the swing low that formed on Thursday. It also means that we will draw the daily cycle trend line using the pivot that was created. The dollar has now entered its timing band for a daily cycle low. A swing high accompanied by a break of the daily cycle trend line will confirm the daily cycle decline.

Stocks
stockshttp://postimg.org/image/69wujdu9x/

Stocks printed their lowest point on day 67. They formed a swing low last Friday and then broke above the declining trend line on Tuesday to confirm the new daily cycle.

Stocks continued higher into Friday, closing above the upper daily cycle band. Stocks are in a daily uptrend and will remain in the uptrend until they close below the lower daily cycle band.

The entire Weekend Report can be found at Likesmoney Subscription Services

The Weekend Report discusses Dollar, Stocks, Gold, Miners, The CRB Index, & Bonds in terms of daily, weekly and yearly cycles.
Also included in the Weekend Report is the Likesmoney CycleTracker

For subscribers click here.

You can email me at likesmoney@gmail.com to receive a sample copy of the Weekend Report

Piecing it Together

0

The pieces are coming together pointing to a daily cycle turn for gold.

gld

Gold printed its lowest point on Wednesday, day 23, following the peak on day 6. That places gold in its timing band to form a daily cycle low. Gold did form a swing low on Thursday. A swing low does not guarantee a daily cycle low, but a daily cycle low cannot form without one. Two of the previous 4 daily cycles did stretch out to at least day 28, so there is the possibility of gold breaking lower here. However, a close above the lower daily cycle band will signal a new daily cycle. Then a break of the declining trend line will confirm the new daily cycle.

Pieces are also coming together pointing to a turn lower for oil.

oil

Thursday was day 37 for the daily oil cycle, placing oil in its timing band to seek out a daily cycle low. There is a bearish divergence developing on the True Strength Indicator the often heralds a change. Also the bearish candle today has eased the parameters for forming a daily swing high. A break below 49.22 will form a swing high. The a break of the daily cycle trend line will confirm the daily cycle decline.

The 5/26/16 Morning Report

000000

Oil continues to close above the upper daily cycle band indicating that oil is in a daily uptrend. It will remain in one until it closes below the lower daily cycle band.

oil daily 2

Oil has reached a multi-year resistance zone.

oil daily 1

Oil has entered its timing band for a daily cycle low. A swing high and trend line break will signal the daily cycle decline. The new high on day 36 assures us of a right translated cycle formation. Therefore our cyclical expectation is to see oil print a higher low and maintain the daily uptrend.

Clear & Convincing Confirmation

0

Stocks delivered a clear and convincing break of the declining trend line to confirm that Tuesday is day 3 of the new daily cycle.

spx

At 67 days, this was an extended daily cycle. But there are two bullish signals to keep in mind going forward. A peak on day 47 with a daily cycle low on day 67 forms a right translated daily cycle. Therefore our expectation is to see the next daily cycle go on to print a higher daily cycle high.

Also the day that stocks printed their daily cycle low, they managed to close above the lower daily cycle band. That indicates that stocks remain in a daily uptrend. Stocks will continue to be in a daily uptrend until they close below the lower daily cycle band.

Gold delivered a convincing break lower today.

gld

Gold broke below the previous daily cycle low delivering final confirmation that gold is in an intermediate cycle decline. At day 22, gold has entered its timing band to print a daily cycle low. While gold is likely to deliver some bearish follow through to the big move lower today, once gold forms a swing low, it will have good odds of marking the daily cycle low.

Waiting on Final Confirmation

0

Stocks have been checking off the list of conditions that precede a daily cycle low.

Timing Band – Check
Swing Low – Check
Bullish divergence on the True Strength Indicator – Check
Large Buying on Weakness numbers – Check & Check

spx

Stocks printed their lowest point on Thursday, day 67, placing stocks very deep in its timing band for a daily cycle low. The swing low on Friday has good odds of forming the daily cycle low. A break of the declining trend line will provide final confirmation that day 67 was the daily cycle low.

Bonds also appear to be waiting …

tlt

The daily bond cycle peaked on day 13. Then it formed a swing high and closed below the upper daily cycle band to signal the daily cycle decline. Bonds broke below the daily cycle trend line on day 16 to confirm the daily cycle decline. A break below the day 16 low of 128.91 will continue the daily cycle decline. A break above the day 16 high of 130.85 would signal an early daily cycle low has been set.

The 5/20/16 Weekend Report Preview

The Dollar
$$$http://postimg.org/image/8jp4ugbcv/

This week the dollar managed to regain the 50 day MA.

A new high on day 12 shifts the odds towards a right translated cycle formation. The dollar closed convincingly above the upper daily cycle band to signal that the intermediate cycle low has been set. Also by closing above the upper daily cycle band signals that the dollar has begun a new daily uptrend.

Stocks
stockshttp://postimg.org/image/69wujdu9x/

The daily equity cycle peaked on day 47, formed a daily swing high and then began its daily cycle decline.

Stocks printed their lowest point on Thursday, day 67. This places stocks very deep in its timing band for a daily cycle low. The swing low on Friday has good odds of forming the daily cycle low. We still need to see a break of the declining trend line before we can label day 67 as the daily cycle low.

And if Thursday did host the daily cycle low, then stocks would have remained above the lower daily cycle band. Which means that stocks have remained in their daily uptrend. Stocks will continue in their daily uptrend until they close below the lower daily cycle band.

The entire Weekend Report can be found at Likesmoney Subscription Services

The Weekend Report discusses Dollar, Stocks, Gold, Miners, The CRB Index, & Bonds in terms of daily, weekly and yearly cycles.
Also included in the Weekend Report is the Likesmoney CycleTracker

For subscribers click here.

You can email me at likesmoney@gmail.com to receive a sample copy of the Weekend Report

Intermediate Support

0

Stocks closed lower once again. But I am starting to see signals of an impending daily cycle low.

spx daily

The large Buying on Weakness number and the bullish divergence on the True Strength Indicator are 2 signs signaling that the daily cycle low is imminent. The reversal into the close has eased the parameters for forming a daily swing low. A break above 2044.21 will form a daily swing low which at this point will likely mark the daily cycle low.

If a swing low forms tomorrow, then stocks would have remained above the lower daily cycle band. Which means that stocks would remain in a daily uptrend.

And on the weekly chart stocks are approaching Intermediate Support.

spx weekly

Stocks peaked on week 10 and have formed a weekly swing high. The daily cycle decline has stocks testing the 50 week MA. If a daily cycle low forms here that will allow stocks to remain above the 50 week MA. It would also set the intermediate cycle trend line.

Miner Response

0

The dollar broke out to a new high and closed convincingly above the 50 day MA on Wednesday.

$$$

A new high on day 11 shifts the odds towards a right translated cycle formation. And closing above the upper daily cycle band signals that the intermediate cycle low has been set. And a rising dollar will put pressure on the precious metals.

gdx

The Miners reacted bearishly to the dollar’s rally, losing over 7% on the day. The daily Miner cycle count is unclear. It could be day 6 but since gold is on day 18 then it is likely that Wednesday was day 17 for the Miners. A break below the day 22 low of 22.37 will form a failed daily cycle.

gdx weekly

While the daily cycle count is unclear the weekly cycle count is clear. This is week 17 for the intermediate Miner cycle. A break below 23.39 will form a weekly swing high and signal the intermedaite cycle decline.

Looking at the Dollar & Gold

0

Yesterday we looked at gold’s intermediate cycle and discussed how gold was on the precipice of an intermediate decline. Today we will look at where the dollar is in its intermediate cycle.

$$$ weekly

In early May the dollar was very deep in its timing band to print an intermediate cycle low. Last week the dollar formed a weekly swing low and closed above the lower weekly cycle band. This delivers our first signal that the dollar set its intermediate cycle low. However we are waiting on a break of the declining weekly trend line to confirm that the dollar is in a new intermediate cycle.

So if the dollar printed its intermediate cycle low the 1st week of May, then the dollar is in its first daily cycle for the new weekly cycle.

$$$

The first daily cycle normally forms as a right translated daily cycle which peaks on or after day 13. The daily cycle high sits at day 8, when the dollar tested the 50 day MA. The dollar now appears to be forming a mini triangle consolidation. A bullish break of this consolidation will begin to shift the odds towards a right translated daily cycle formation.

Gold also appears to be forming a mini triangle consolidation.

gld

Tuesday was day 17 for the daily gold cycle, placing gold 1 day shy of entering its timing band to print a daily cycle low. I suspect if the dollar delivers a bullish break of its consolidation we will see gold react with a bearish break of its consolidation sending gold into final daily cycle decline. And a break of the previous daily cycle low of 1228.30 will form a failed daily cycle.

The 5/17/16 Morning Update & Clarification

0

In last night’s post I said “Gold needs to break below the previous daily cycle low in order to confirm the intermediate cycle decline. A break below 1258.30 forms the failed daily cycle.”

I think that I was trying to say two things correctly but ended up saying one thing wrong.

gld 2

Two points:
* The day 12 low — 1258.30
* The previous daily cycle low — 1228.50.

Point 1.

I believe that gold is making its final decline into its daily cycle low. A daily cycle low is defined as the lowest point following the cycle peak. Therefore gold will need to break below the day 12 low of 1258.50 to print its daily cycle low.

Point 2.
A failed daily cycle confirms the intermediate cycle decline. Therefore gold needs to break below the previous daily cycle low in order to confirm the intermediate cycle decline. A break below 1228.50 forms the failed daily cycle.