Seeking A Bottom

Stocks are seeking out their DCL.

Stocks have already retraced back below the 38% fib level. At 40 days, stocks are right in the heart of their timing band for a DCL. Stocks are approaching possible support from the converging previous breakout level and the rising 50 day MA. With stocks currently in a daily uptrend, if stocks form a swing low above the lower daily cycle band then they will remain in their daily uptrend and trigger a cycle band buy signal.

And a successful backtest of the previous breakout level as stocks head into the most bullish time of the year could trigger a melt-up phase.

Bullish Signal

Stocks delivered a bullish signal on Monday.

Stocks formed a bullish RSI reversal on Monday.

Stocks have been in a daily uptrend that has been characterized by highs occurring above the upper daily cycle band and lower forming above the lower daily cycle band. Another characteristic is having RSI become embedded in overbought. Monday’s quick bullish RSI reversal is a signal that stocks will resume their daily uptrend. Stocks did form a swing low on Monday. A close above the 10 day MA will indicate a continuation of the daily uptrend and trigger a cycle band buy signal.

Oil Game Changer

Oil dropped over 13% on Friday to extend its daily cycle decline.

Oil printed its lowest point on Friday, day 67, placing oil very deep in its timing band for a DCL. At this late stage of the daily cycle, a swing low and close back above the 200 day MA will have good odds of marking the DCL.

 So, while oil could potentially begin a new daily cycle next week, Friday’s huge drop is a game changer that will likely send oil into an intermediate and yearly cycle decline. Which I further discuss in the Weekend Report.

Stocks Ready To Cross The Line

At 35 days and printing a bearish reversal on Monday, stocks should be seeking out their DCL.

Instead stocks printed a bullish reversal on Tuesday then formed a swing low on Wednesday. Notice that the 10 day MA is beginning to turn higher. This is looking more and more like this maybe all the correction we will see. Stocks are currently in a daily uptrend. A close above the day 24 high of 4718.50 will indicate a continuation of the daily uptrend and trigger a cycle band buy signal. Stops could then adjusted to 4718.50.

Stocks Print Bullish Reversal

Stocks printed a bullish reversal on Tuesday.

Tuesday was day 6 for the daily equity cycle, placing stocks in their timing band for a daily cycle low. Monday’s bearish reversal, in real time, looked as if stocks were declining into their daily cycle low. However, Tuesday’s bullish reversal calls that into question.

With the unprecedented flood of global liquidity along with stocks entering the most bullish time of the year, this maybe all the correction we will see. Stocks are currently in a daily uptrend. A close above the day 24 high of 4718.50 will indicate a continuation of the daily uptrend and trigger a cycle band buy signal. Stops could then adjusted to 4718.50.

Bearish Reversal

Stocks formed a bearish reversal on Monday.

Monday was day 35 for the daily equity cycle, placing stocks in their timing band for a daily cycle low. Monday’s bearish reversal eases the parameters for forming a daily swing high. A break below 4682.94 will form a swing high. Then a close below the 10 day MA will signal the daily cycle decline. Stocks should go on to break below the day 27 low in order to complete its daily cycle decline. Stocks are in a daily uptrend. Stocks will remain in their daily uptrend unless they close below the lower daily cycle band.

The 11/20/21 Weekend Report Preview

The Dollar

The dollar printed a bearish reversal on Wednesday then formed a swing high on Thursday.    

The dollar did not deliver bearish follow through. Instead, the dollar delivered a bullish surprise by forming a swing low on Friday, negating Thursday’s swing high. This also allows us to construct an accelerated (dashed) trend line.   Currently, the dollar is in a daily uptrend.  The dollar will remain in its daily uptrend unless it closes below the lower daily cycle band. 

Stocks

We will start off with a look at the Nasdaq.

While the Nasdaq closed below the 10 day MA on day 27, it really did not satisfy the parameters for a DCL. Now the Nasdaq is breakout out to new all-time highs.

Usually breakouts that occur late in the daily cycle are often reversed. But with the flood of global liquidity and stocks entering the most bullish time of the year, this maybe all the correction we will see, so stops should be adjusted to the new breakout level.

The S&P remain is consolidation. A break below the day 27 low of 4630.66 would allow stocks to complete their daily cycle decline. turn the 10 day MA lower in order to complete its daily cycle decline. But close above the 4718.50 level may see the S&P follow the Nasdaq higher.

Waiting For Stocks To Cross The Line

The Dow Jones Industrial is seeking out its DCL.

The Dow broke below the daily cycle trend line, turned the 10 day MA lower, and is in its timing band for a daily cycle low. And Thursday’s bullish reversal eases the parameters for forming a daily swing low. A swing low and break above the declining trend line will signal a new daily cycle.

It’s questionable if day 27 represents a DCL for the Nasdaq. However, the tech heavy Nasdaq is breaking out to new highs. The Nasdaq is currently in a daily uptrend. Breaking out to a new high signals a continuation of the daily uptrend and triggers a cycle band buy signal.

The broader S & P has been consolidating for almost the past 2 weeks. A break below the day 27 low of 4630.66 should see stocks complete their daily cycle decline. But with the Nasdaq breaking out to new highs, it is possible for the S & P to follow. A break above the day 27 high of 4718.50 will shift the odds of stocks entering a melt-up phase and stops should then be raised to the new breakout level.

Miner Concerns

The Miners printed a bearish reversal on Tuesday.

The Miners have been in the declining phase of the intermediate cycle since June. That has been characterized by the weekly RSI 05 becoming embedded in oversold. Another characteristic of the declining phase of the intermediate cycle is a quick bearish reversal once RSI reaches overbought — which we see happening. Tuesday’s bearish reversal has the Miners threatening to lose the 50 week MA. If the Miners deliver bearish follow through and close below the 50 week MA that will set the Miners up for a left translated weekly cycle formation which will continue the declining phase of the intermediate cycle.

Stocks Waiting on Bullish Follow Through

While stocks formed a swing low on Friday, they did not deliver bullish follow through on Monday.

If stocks broke above he day 27 high of 4718.50, that would have shifted the odds of stocks entering a melt-up phase. However, stocks closed lower on the day. Monday was day 30 for the daily equity cycle, placing stocks in their timing band for a DCL.  Any bearish follow through should send stocks to complete their daily cycle decline. Stocks should break below the day 27 low of 4630.66 and turn the 10 day MA lower in order to complete its daily cycle decline. This would allow stocks to backtest the 4545.85 breakout level and allow sentiment to cool off. Which would set stocks up to emerge from a DCL heading into the most bullish time of the year.