Miner Decline

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The daily Miner cycle peaked on day 10 and formed a clear and convincing swing high on day 11. The break below the daily cycle trend line today confirms the daily cycle decline.

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A peak on day 10 begins to shift the likelihood towards this daily cycle forming as a right translated cycle. However, the failure to regain the 50 day MA during this daily cycle indicates that the Miners are still caught in a downtrend.

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This week is week 21 for the intermediate Miner cycle. The Miners did manage to form a swing low off the week 18 candle. However, the Miners failed to break above the declining weekly trend line and has been rejected by the 20 level. The Miners are still caught in an intermediate cycle decline. With today’s confirmation of the daily cycle decline it appears that the Miners are destined to printing another failed daily cycle, extending their intermediate cycle decline.

Yin & Yang

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The dollar is still in an uptrend because this daily cycle for the dollar did not fail. This dollar daily cycle did form as a right translated cycle. Right translated cycles are generally followed by then next cycle printing a higher high.

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The dollar’s daily cycle peaked on day 13. It printed a bullish reversal on Thursday, day 21. The dollar printed a swing low on Friday. Today’s clear and convincing trend line break confirms a new daily cycle. And a new daily cycle for the dollar is a signal that gold has begun its daily cycle decline.

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The daily gold cycle peaked on day 7 as it tagged the 50 day MA. Gold formed a clear and convincing swing high and also printed a bearish TSI crossover, both signaling a daily cycle decline. A peak on day 7 typically forms as a left translated cycle. Since gold has not successfully broken out of its intermediate cycle decline, it is still in a pattern of printing lower highs and lower lows …

The 3/27/15 Weekend Report Preview

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The Summary below is a regular feature provided in the Weekend Report.

Summary:

Dollar:
The bullish reversal on Thursday followed by a swing low on Friday indicates that a new daily cycle has begun.

Stocks:
The volatility in stocks continued this week, obscuring our daily cycle count. The weekly cycle count is clear and we are on watch for an intermediate cycle decline.

Gold:
Gold formed a swing high after being rejected by the 50 day MA. If the dollar has begun a new daily cycle then gold quite likely has begun its daily cycle decline.

Miners:
The swing high and bearish follow through this week delivers a bearish out look.

CRB Index:
The CRB was rejected by the 50 day MA and formed a swing high. This favors a left translated cycle formation, indicating a continuation of the intermediate cycle decline.

Bonds:
The swing high and trend line break this week signaled a daily cycle decline.

The Dollar
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The dollar’s daily cycle peaked on day 13. It printed a bullish reversal on Thursday, day 21. The swing low on Friday indicates a new daily cycle.

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The dollar also breached the declining cycle trend line on Friday. Which is more evidence that a daily cycle low has been left behind. A clear and convincing trend line break will confirm a new daily cycle.

Stocks
stockshttp://postimg.org/image/69wujdu9x/

Stocks formed a swing high on Tuesday. Then delivered more bearish follow through on Wednesday, closing below the the 50 day MA indicating a daily cycle decline.

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With the intermediate cycle now on week 23, we are on that watch for an intermediate cycle decline. An early 26 day, daily cycle low followed by a left translated cycle would align with that expectation.

However, stocks breached the intermediate trend line on Thursday and closed higher on Friday. If day 26 was not an early daily cycle low that would make Thursday day 37. That would place stocks right in the heart of its timing band for a daily cycle low. A 37 day, daily cycle low labeling aligns with the triangle consolidation formation we are witnessing on the weekly chart. The weekly chart is discussed in the Weekend Report.

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The Weekend Report discusses Dollar, Stocks, Gold, Miners, The CRB Index, & Bonds in terms of daily, weekly and yearly cycles.
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Possible Reversal

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Stocks continued lower today, breaching the intermediate cycle trend line. Stocks ended up recovering a bit and closed above the intermediate trend line. This presents us with some different possibilities.

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As we discussed last night, it appears as if stocks left behind a 26 day, daily cycle low. Therefore we could see a bounce here before stocks continue lower into a left translated daily cycle decline.

There is another possibility. Instead of day 26 being an early daily cycle low, it was a half-cycle low. That would make the reversal that printed today be day 37, placing stocks in the heart of its timing band for a daily cycle low. The 913 million BOW that printed over the past three days supports this scenario.

If today is day 37, then a daily cycle low should print any day now. And with stocks now at week 23 of its weekly cycle, that would virtually assure us of a left translated formation to the new daily cycle.

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Bonds reversed lower on Wednesday and delivered more bearish follow through today.
The peak on day 13 shifts the odds for this daily cycle forming as a right translated cycle. But with Thursday being day 14, bonds are still 4 days shy of their timing band to print a daily cycle low. Bonds will need to avoid breaking below the previous low of 122.97 to maintain a bullish outlook.

More Bearish Clues

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Stocks delivered bearish follow through today.

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The daily equity cycle peaked on day 8 and formed a swing high on day 9. Losing the 50 day MA on day 10 is another clue to this daily cycle forming as a left translated cycle.

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The intermediate equity cycle peaked on week 19 and formed a weekly swing high on week 20. It is beginning to appear that stocks are being rejected by the developing declining (blue) intermediate trend line. A break below the rising (dashed) intermediate trend line confirms the intermediate cycle decline.

Shot Across the Bow

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Stocks emerged out of what appears to be a shortened 26 day, daily cycle low. Stocks regained the 50 day MA and continued higher through Monday, day 8. Stocks formed a swing high today, tagging the daily cycle trend line. The swing high that formed today is a shot across the bow of something sinister is afoot.

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Why a swing high on day 9 is a concern is because stocks are beginning to get late in their weekly cycle timing band. This is week 23 for the intermediate equity cycle. Allowing for a normal duration for this daily cycle to print a low would take stocks out to about week 28, which would be getting very late for the timing band for an intermediate cycle low. Therefore we are on alert that this daily cycle could form as a left translated cycle and fail, leading into the intermediate cycle decline.

A break of the blue daily cycle trend line indicates that stocks have entered a daily cycle decline. Losing the 50 day MA would provide further confirmation. A break of the dashed trend line delivers a breach of the intermediate cycle trend line, confirming an intermediate cycle decline.

Don’t Look Now

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The CRB peaked last summer and then proceeded to drop steadily. A bullish weekly reversal printed in late January hinting that the beat down was over. Then the CRB rolled over mid February and dropped further.

crb weekly

Another bullish reversal printed last week.

crb weekly 2

The CRB has followed up the bullish reversal last week by forming a weekly swing low today. The intermediate cycle has been very stretched so this weekly swing low has pretty good odds of signaling a new intermediate cycle. A clear and convincing break of the declining weekly trend line will confirm a new intermediate cycle.

And its no coincident that commodities are perking up now that the dollar has peaked.

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The dollar’s daily cycle peaked last Monday. A swing high formed on Tuesday. The dollar then delivered a clear and convincing break lower on Wednesday, Fed Day, confirming the daily cycle decline. Today was day 18 and the dollar continued to print lower highs. At day 18, the dollar has now entered its timing band to print a daily cycle low. A break above the declining trend line will signal a new daily cycle.

The dollar is due to seek out an intermediate cycle low. A failed daily cycle is required to confirm the intermediate cycle decline. Currently, the dollar would need to break below the late February low of 94.17, to print a failed daily cycle. With a peak on day 13, it is more likely that this daily cycle will form as a right translated cycle, printing a higher low. Then we would look towards the next daily cycle forming as a left translated cycle and failing, sending the dollar into its intermediate cycle low.

Miner Fun

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I wanted to have a little fun looking at the Miners. So let’s begin by looking at a 12 year chart of the Miners.

miners

There are two important things that stand out to me.
1st is the support/resistance at the 150 level.
2nd is the trend line drawn off the highs prior to the 2008-09 bear market.

The 150 level was a major resistance level in 2002 and also in 2003. It was where the Miners found support in 2009. And once again as the bottomed in November, 2014.

The multi year declining trend line began at the peak just prior to the 2008 – 09 began. It was also resistance as the Miners back tested that high. The it became support in 2010 as the Miners backed tested the 200 MA as it emerged from the 2008-09 bear. It was also support at the 2013 intermediate lows.

And …

gdx short

… the recent cycle low in March.

Further discussion of the Miners and where they are in their daily, weekly, and yearly cycles can be found in the Weekend Report.

This week I am extending a Miner Special Trial Subscription offer. Try the Weekend Report for 1 month for a Miner Special of $10.

The Weekend Report discusses Dollar, Stocks, Gold, Miners, The CRB Index, & Bonds in terms of daily, weekly and yearly cycles.
Also included in the Weekend Report is the Likesmoney CycleTracker.

I also post what I call my Weekend Updates.
The Weekend Updates cover
* Corn
* DBA
* The FAS Buy/Sell Indicator
* The Bullish Percentage BINGO

And I also post a mid-week update on Wednesday evenings which updates the daily charts from the Weekend Report.

To try the Miner Special Trial Subscription offer click here.

The 3/20/15 Weekend Report Preview

The Dollar
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The dollar printed a higher daily cycle high on Monday. A swing high formed on Tuesday. The dollar then delivered a clear and convincing break lower on Wednesday, confirming the daily cycle decline.

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Wednesday was Fed Day, and the dollar broke convincingly lower. The dollar continued to print lower highs into Friday, day 17. The dollar enters its timing and to print a daily cycle low next week. A break above the declining trend line will signal a new daily cycle.

Stocks
stockshttp://postimg.org/image/69wujdu9x/

The daily equity cycle peaked on day 16 and printed its lowest point on day 26. There it found support just above the intermediate cycle trend line.

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Stocks back tested the intermediate trend line a week ago Friday. Stocks closed above the 50 day MA on Monday. Wednesday, Fed Day, saw stocks back test the 50 day MA and continue higher. Stocks closed out the week, printing a higher high, indicating a new daily cycle.

A new daily cycle implies that a right translated daily cycle was left behind. If so, then our expectation is for the new daily cycle to print a higher daily cycle high. Because stocks are in their timing band to seek out an intermediate cycle low our expectation is to see this new daily cycle form as a left translated cycle and fail, leading to an intermediate cycle decline.

The entire Weekend Report can be found at Likesmoney Subscription Services

The Weekend Report discusses Dollar, Stocks, Gold, Miners, The CRB Index, & Bonds in terms of daily, weekly and yearly cycles.
Also included in the Weekend Report is the Likesmoney CycleTracker

To subscribe: http://likesmoneysubscriptionservices.wordpress.com/

For subscribers click here.

You can email me at likesmoney@gmail.com to receive a sample copy of the Weekend Report

Some Things to Watch

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The markets are still digesting the Fed statement from Wednesday. Here are a few things that I am watching.

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The dollar’s daily cycle peaked on Monday, day 13. A swing high formed and then the dollar tanked on Wednesday, confirming a daily cycle decline. While the dollar recovered some today, it still printed a lower high. This lower high has allowed us to draw in a declining trend line. The dollar should not break above this declining trend line until a daily cycle low forms. With Thursday being day 16, the dollar is still two days shy of entering its timing band for seeking a daily cycle low. So we could see the dollar continue lower into next week.

Despite the dollar’s recovery today, gold posted a gain.

gold

Since peaking in late January, gold printed its lowest point on Tuesday. Gold then formed a clear and convincing swing low on Wednesday, Fed Day. Now a break above the declining trend line will confirm a new daily cycle.

spx

Stocks broke above their declining trend line on Monday, indicating a new daily cycle. Wednesday saw stocks back test the 50 day MA before launching higher. With the intermediate cycle on week 22, we need to be alert to this daily cycle forming in a left translated manner and failing, leading to an intermediate cycle decline. A breach of the developing blue trend line would signal trouble. A break below the dashed trend line confirms an intermediate cycle decline.