Looking at the Dollar & Gold

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Monday saw the dollar print a huge bearish engulfing candle that lost the 50 day MA on day 7. It appeared as if the daily cycle topped and was poised to form as a left translated cycle.

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The dollar has rallied since then, closing just off the day 7 high. Today was day 9 for the dollar’s daily cycle and if the dollar breaks to a new high the odds begin to shift toward this daily cycle forming as a right translated daily cycle.

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Week 2 currently sports the intermediate cycle high. The June daily cycle low caused the dollar to back test the recent intermediate cycle low. The dollar needs to break above the week 2 high of 97.88 to increase the odds that this daily cycle will form as a right translated cycle.

And the dollar rallying out of its recent daily cycle low has been sending gold lower.

Gld weekly

The intermediate gold cycle peaked on week 9 with this week being week 15. At 15 weeks gold still has a few weeks before entering its timing band for an intermediate cycle low. Currently, the lowest point since the week 9 peak printed on week 11. That was too early for an intermediate cycle low. Therefore we can expect gold to break below the week 11 low of 1162.10 on its way to printing its intermediate cycle low.

But gold may not stop there.

gld yearly

The yearly gold cycle peaked on month 2 with the lowest point printing during month 4. We define a cycle low as the lowest point following the cycle peak. Therefore we can expect to see gold break below the month 4 low of 1141.60 on its way to printing a yearly cycle low.

Possible Bottom for Bonds

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Lord Nigel Boner (@BonerTimes) asked today about Bonds (TLT). He wanted to know if it have legs to run and thus equities will move in inverse?

Let’s take a look.

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A double bottom appears to be forming for bonds. Friday just may have been day 27 instead of day 12. A day 27 count makes it more likely that bonds are emerging out of a daily cycle low. A clear and convincing break above the declining (red) trend line will confirm a new daily cycle.

tlt weekly

The intermediate bond cycle peaked on week 3 and printed its lowest point last week, which was week 16. Although a bit early Bonds formed a weekly swing low. A close above the lower weekly cycle band will confirm a new intermedaite cycle.

Intermediate Decline

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Stocks broke below the previous daily cycle low today in a clear and convincing manner forming a failed daily cycle.

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The current daily cycle peaked on 9. A swing high formed two days later. Today stocks sliced through the daily cycle trend line and continued lower, closing below the previous daily cycle low in a clear and convincing manner. Today was day 14 for this daily cycle which means we should see another 3 to 5 weeks before the daily cycle low is due. Breaking below the previous daily cycle low confirms that stocks have entered its long awaited intermediate decline.

(There is a small chance that day 28 of the previous daily cycle was actually the daily cycle low making today day 37 and placing it in the timing band for a low)

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The intermediate cycle peaked on week 31, locking in a right translated nature to this weekly cycle. It then printed its lowest point on week 33 before rallying. A weekly swing low formed but stocks did not break out to a new high, so therefore I believe that last 2 weeks only set its declining weekly trend line. With this intermediate cycle being so stretched, once a daily cycle low forms, is should signal a new intermediate cycle as well.

Today, the dollar may have entered an intermediate cycle decline.

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Today was day 7 for the dollar’s daily cycle. The dollar broke above the 50 day MA only to reverse, losing the 50 day MA and closing below Friday’s low, printing a bearish engulfing candle. A cycle peak on day 7 usually results in a left translated cycle, which fails. And a failed daily cycle will confirm that the dollar’s intermediate cycle is in decline. A break below the recent daily cycle low of 94.30 forms a failed daily cycle.

The 6/26/15 Weekend Report Preview

The Dollar

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The dollar printed an intermediate cycle low in May. The first daily cycle following that low peaked on day 8 and then went on to print a 24 day, left translated, daily cycle low which did not fail. The dollar broke above the declining trend line on Tuesday to confirm the new daily cycle.

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Since breaking above the declining trend line on Tuesday, day 3, the dollar has been contained by the 50 day MA. The dollar tagged the developing trend line and Friday and breached the 50 day MA. A clear and convincing close above the 50 day MA should lead to the formation of a right translated daily cycle. Should the dollar be rejected by the 50 day MA here and break below the daily trend line, then the likelihood of a left translated cycle forming increases.

Stocks

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The daily equity cycle printed a 51 day daily cycle low June 9th. It meandered out of that cycle low, not breaking above the previous declining cycle trend line until day 7.

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Stocks printed their highest point so far on Monday. A swing high formed on Wednesday and then stocks broke below the 50 day MA on Thursday. Stocks then back tested the declining cycle trend line on Friday. Stocks have printed an incredible 7.66 Billion in Buying on Weakness since the March daily cycle low. This far exceeds the average of 1.038 billion BOW that we typically see prior to an intermediate cycle low. It also exceeds the 5.057 billion that occurred prior to the 2009 financial crisis low.

But what happens if stocks continue lower?
I give some thoughts on this in the Weekend Report.

The entire Weekend Report can be found at Likesmoney Subscription Services

The Weekend Report discusses Dollar, Stocks, Gold, Miners, The CRB Index, & Bonds in terms of daily, weekly and yearly cycles.
Also included in the Weekend Report is the Likesmoney CycleTracker

To subscribe: http://likesmoneysubscriptionservices.wordpress.com/

For subscribers click here.

Balance of Payment

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In this past weekend’s Weekend Report Preview we observed the large BOW that printed on Friday and also discussed the since the previous cycle peaked in mid-May there has been over 4.3 Billion in Buying on Weakness.

In contrast, stocks did print a large SOS day on Monday. That made me curious. So I decided to compare the recent BOW numbers to the recent Selling on Strength numbers.

sos spx

Since the previous daily cycle peak through Monday there has been a total of 1642 million in Selling on Strength. And since the March daily cycle low a total of over 1888 million Selling on Strength has printed.

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In contrast, from the previous daily cycle peak in Mid March through last Friday, 6/19, there has been over 4.3 Billion in Buying on Weakness. And since the cycle low in March there has been over 7.66 Billion in Buying on Strength through 6/19.

SOS since May Peak —- BOW since May Peak
1642 million SOS ———–4.3 Billion BOW

SOS since March Cycle Low —- BOW since March Cycle Low
1888 million SOS ————–7.66 Billion.

And since Monday stocks have added another 1.01 Billion BOW bring the total to 8.67 Billion.

From the March cycle low through today the BOW numbers are over four times that of the SOS numbers.

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In the Weekend Report Preview I made available a BOW Special Report. This detailed BOW Special Report is still available through Saturday. This BOW report looks at the BOW numbers for this cycle. It then looks at the history of BOW numbers for intermediate lows dating back to the 2009 Financial Crisis Low. It compares the current numbers to the average BOW numbers for ICL’s and the BOW numbers leading into the 2009 low.

This report is still available as a Father’s Day Special. For $10 you will receive the Special BOW Report and a complimentary 30 membership to the Premium Website.

The Premium Website is where the Weekend Report is posted in it entirety.
Also included are the Weekend Updates.
The Weekend Updates cover
* Corn
* DBA
* The FAS Buy/Sell Indicator
* The Bullish Percentage BINGO

And I also post a mid-week update on Wednesday evenings which updates the daily charts from the Weekend Report.

So to get a copy of the Special BOW Report and complementary 1 month membership please click here.

Follow Through

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The dollar printed a reversal last Thursday, which was day 24. Being in the timing band for a daily cycle low, the dollar had good odds that the reversal marked the daily cycle low. We needed to see some follow through before the dollar could confirm a new daily cycle.

The dollar delivered that bullish follow through today.

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The dollar broke above the declining trend line today in a clear and convincing manner to confirm that last Thursday did print a daily cycle low.

Gold also delivered some follow through today.

gld

The daily gold cycle peaked peaked on day 9, where it was rejected by the 200 day MA. Gold lost the 50 day MA on Monday and delivered more bearish follow through today. Now at day 12, gold should start to feel the gravitational pull of the impending daily cycle low. A break below 1162.10 forms a failed daily cycle, continuing the intermediate cycle decline that we discussed here yesterday.

Bearish Set Up

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Thursday saw the dollar print a reversal on day 24, which is in its timing band for a daily cycle low.

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The dollar formed a swing low on Friday and closed higher once again on Monday. However the dollar is still being contained by the declining trend line. A break above the declining trend line will confirm Thursday as the daily cycle low. And as the dollar rallies out of its DCL that will likely put pressure on our shiny yellow friend.

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Gold’s weekly chart shows up that the current weekly cycle failed to print a higher weekly high, a bearish signal. This cycle peaked on week 9, where it was turned back by the declining 50 week MA. Gold declined and tagged the 1162 level, where it staged a brief counter trend rally. That rally seems to have exhausted itself and has formed a declining weekly trend line.

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The daily chart also paints a bearish picture. The previous daily cycle broke above the 200 day MA before reversing and then printing a failed daily cycle. The current daily cycle was rejected by the 200 day MA on day 9 and today lost the 50 day MA in a clear and convincing manner. Setting the stage for another failed daily cycle. With the weekly cycle currently on week 14, that leaves the door open for gold to decline another 4 – 8 weeks into an intermediate cycle low.

The 6/19/15 Weekend Report Preview

The Dollar
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The dollar printed a reversal candle on Thursday, day 24. That is in the timing band for a daily cycle low. The swing low on Friday indicates a new daily cycle.

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A reversal candle that occurs in the later stages of the timing band for a daily cycle low accompanied by a swing low typically signal a new daily cycle. However, we need to see a clear and convincing break above the declining trend line to confirm a new daily cycle.

There are a couple of troubling signs for the dollar that occurred during this daily cycle. Those signs are discussed further in the Weekend Report.

Stocks
stockshttp://postimg.org/image/69wujdu9x/

Stocks broke out bullishly on Thursday, closing above the declining cycle trend line to confirm a new daily cycle.

http://imageshack.com/a/img540/2521/QmDWbu.jpg

On Friday stocks gave back over half of the gains from Thursday. However, the large BOW number printed on Friday suggests that stocks were back testing the break out.

http://imageshack.com/a/img537/916/cyjbsq.jpg

Stocks printed a huge 872 million Buying on Weakness day on Friday. Since peaking on day 38, there has been over 4.3 Billion in Buying on Weakness. This type of BOW number far exceeds anything for a daily cycle low and exceeds most accumulated BOW numbers for an intermediate cycle low.

But there is more. I checked the BOW numbers preceding the cycle peak. They were significant. There were so significant that I decided that I needed to post a Special Buying on Weakness Report. This BOW report looks at the BOW numbers for this cycle. It then looks at the history of BOW numbers for intermediate lows dating back to the 2009 Financial Crisis Low. It compares the current numbers to the average BOW numbers for ICL’s and the BOW numbers leading into the 2009 low.

This report will be made available as a Father’s Day Special. For $10 you will receive the Special BOW Report and a complimentary 30 membership to the Premium Website.

The Premium Website is where the Weekend Report is posted in it entirety.
Also included are the Weekend Updates.
The Weekend Updates cover
* Corn
* DBA
* The FAS Buy/Sell Indicator
* The Bullish Percentage BINGO

And I also post a mid-week update on Wednesday evenings which updates the daily charts from the Weekend Report.

So to get a copy of the Special BOW Report and complementary 1 month membership please click here.

For subscribers click here.

The 6/19/15 Morning Report

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In Thursday’s Morning Report we took a look at the dollar’s daily cycle decline and how it is threatening to form a failed weekly cycle. A daily swing low has formed this morning that may allow the dollar to avert this scenario.

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The dollar is locked into a left translated cycle formation with a peak on day 8 and the lowest point printing yesterday, day 24. The dollar is well into its timing band to print a daily cycle low. At this point a swing low has good odds of marking the daily cycle low. We will still need to see a break in the declining trend line to confirm a new daily cycle.

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A clear and convincing break in the declining daily trend line delivers confirmation of a new daily cycle and prevents the dollar from printing a failed intermediate cycle.

Clarity

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We discussed on Tuesday whether or not June 9th marked a daily cycle low. Today’s rally has provided some clarity.

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The recent volatility had obscured our daily cycle count making it uncertain if day 28 represented an early daily cycle low or a half cycle low. What is certain is that stocks peaked on May 20th and began a daily cycle decline. Stocks closed below the upper cycle band on May 26 and continue to decline. Stocks broke below the lower cycle band and printed their lowest point last Tuesday, June 9th. Stocks rallied out of the June 9th low but was turned back by the declining cycle trend line. However, the clear and convincing break of the declining cycle trend line confirms today as day 7 of a new daily cycle.