The 7/29/16 Weekend Report

The Dollar
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After forming a swing high on Tuesday, the dollar began its daily cycle decline. The dollar delivered a huge bearish surprise on Friday. Losing both the 200 MA and the 50 day MA.

The dollar had been in a daily uptrend. But the huge drop on Friday caused the dollar to close below the lower daily cycle band. That signals an end to the daily uptrend and the beginning of the dollar’s intermediate cycle decline.

Stocks
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Stocks have been consolidating the initial run-up out of the 6/27 intermediate cycle low.

Friday was day 23 for the daily equity cycle. A new high on day 23, or after, increases the likelihood of a right translated daily cycle formation. Instead of dropping into a half cycle low, stocks have been consolidating in a narrow range. These consolidations are typically continuation patterns. So it is likely to see 1 more leg higher before this daily cycle tops.

The entire Weekend Report can be found at Likesmoney Subscription Services

The Weekend Report discusses Dollar, Stocks, Gold, Miners, The CRB Index, & Bonds in terms of daily, weekly and yearly cycles.
Also included in the Weekend Report is the Likesmoney CycleTracker

For subscribers click here.

The entire Weekend Report can be found at Likesmoney Subscription Services

The Weekend Report discusses Dollar, Stocks, Gold, Miners, The CRB Index, & Bonds in terms of daily, weekly and yearly cycles.
Also included in the Weekend Report is the Likesmoney CycleTracker

For subscribers click here.

NATGAS Joins the Party

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Gold, Oil and Stocks have all recently printed multi-year lows.

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We can see that NATGAS has joined the party.

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And now NATGAS has confirmed a new daily cycle.

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Last Thursday, July 21st, was the lowest point following the day 30 peak. Today’s clear & convincing declining trend line break confirms that 7/21 hosted a daily cycle low. Notice that the 7/21 low closed above the lower daily cycle band, signaling that NATGAS is in a daily uptrend. Today’s close above the upper daily cycle band affirms that NATGAS is continuing in its daily uptrend. It will remain in the daily uptrend until it closes below the lower daily cycle band.

Smoke ’em if you got ’em

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Gold came close, but no cigar, to confirming an new daily cycle on Tuesday.

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Gold printed its lowest point on Thursday following the daily cycle peak. Gold broke above the 7/21’s high on Wednesday and delivered a clear and convincing break of the declining trend line to confirm the new daily cycle.

The Miners also confirmed a new daily cycle.

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The Miners delivered a clear and convincing break of its declining trend line to confirm Wednesday as day 2 for the new daily cycle. Please note that the day 22 low closed above the lower daily cycle band. That signaled that the Miners remain in their daily uptrend. They will continue in their daily uptrend unless they close below the lower daily cycle band.

Gold Getting Close …

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Gold is getting close to forming its daily cycle low. Close but no cigar …

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Gold’s daily cycle peaked on day 25 and then went on to print its lowest point last Thursday, day 36. That places gold deep in its timing band to print a daily cycle low.

We would like to see a break of the daily cycle trend line before gold prints its daily cycle low. That would certainly flush out any dip-buying-bulls. But in a bull market surprises come to the bull-side. So we need to keep an open mind to last Thursday being the daily cycle low. Gold is currently being squeezed by the rising trend line and the 10 day MA. At this point a close above the 10 day MA would signal a new daily cycle.

Another bullish signal is that the Miners formed a daily swing low on Tuesday.

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The Miners printed their lowest point on Monday following the peak on day 12. Monday was day 22, which places the Miners in their timing band for a daily cycle low. The Miners need to break above the declining trend line to confirm a new daily cycle.

And if Monday turns out to be the daily cycle low, that would mean two things:
1) That the daily cycle formed as a right translated cycle, printing a higher high and a higher low.
2) By closing above the lower daily cycle band on Monday the Miners maintained their daily uptrend and will remain in a daily uptrend unless the close below the lower daily cycle band.

Narrow Range Day for the Dollar

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The dollar broke out to a new high on Monday before reversing lower to to print a narrow range day.

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Monday was day 21 for the dollar’s daily cycle. That places the dollar solidly in its timing band to seek out a daily cycle low. The narrow range day has eased the parameters for forming a daily swing high. A break below 97.25 will form a daily swing high. Then a break below the daily cycle trend line will confirm the daily cycle decline.

The 7/22/16 Weekend Report Preview

The Dollar
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The dollar printed a new high on Friday, day 20, assuring us of a right translated daily cycle formation.

At 20 days, the dollar has entered its timing band to seek a daily cycle low. A daily swing high accompanied by a break below the daily cycle trend line would signal the daily cycle decline. The dollar is in a daily uptrend. The dollar will continue in the uptrend until it closes below the lower daily cycle band.

Stocks
stockshttp://postimg.org/image/69wujdu9x/

The rally out of the June intermediate cycle low caused stocks to get a bit overheated, stretching above the 10 day MA.

Stocks have been coiling for the past 6 days, allowing for the day 10 MA to catch up. A break above this coil should send stocks into their daily cycle peak. Stocks are in a daily uptrend and will remain in the uptrend until they close below the lower daily cycle band.

Miner Swing Low

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The Miners formed a daily swing low on Thursday.

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Thursday was day 19. This places the Miners in the early part of their timing band for a daily cycle low.

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I am a bit skeptical of the Miners printing a daily cycle low here while gold has yet to break the daily cycle trend line that we discussed on Monday. However, as we just mentioned, the Miners have entered their timing band for a daily cycle low. A break above the declining cycle trend line is needed to confirm a new daily cycle. A close above the upper daily cycle band would give us an early indication that day 19 hosted a daily cycle low. Also, a close above the upper daily cycle band will affirm that the Miners remain in their daily uptrend. The daily uptrend will continue unless the Miners close below the lower daily cycle band.

Bonds are also in their timing band for a daily cycle low.

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Thursday was day 19 for the daily bond cycle. Thursday’s gain has bonds testing the declining cycle trend line. It also has eased the parameters for forming a daily swing low. Break above 138.62 will form a daily swing low to signal a new daily cycle. If day 19 is the daily cycle low, then bonds would have maintained their daily uptrend.

The 7/21/16 Morning Report

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The dollar has formed a swing high this morning.

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Wednesday was day 18 for the dollar’s daily cycle. That places the dollar in its timing band to seek out a daily cycle low. A peak on day 18, or later, assures us of a right translated daily cycle formation.

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A break of the daily cycle trend line will confirm that the dollar has begun its daily cycle decline. The dollar has been closing above the upper daily cycle band, which indicates that the dollar is in a daily uptrend. The dollar will remain in the daily uptrend unless closes below the lower daily cycle band.

Dollar Strength

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The dollar broke out to a new daily cycle high on Tuesday.

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Tuesday was day 17 for the daily dollar cycle. A new high on day 17 assures us of a right translated daily cycle formation which reinforces my thinking that May hosted the yearly cycle low. The dollar has also started to close above the upper daily cycle band. This signals a new daily uptrend.

Meanwhile stocks look like they need a breather.

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Stocks printed an intermediate cycle low in June. They have since begun to close above the upper daily cycle band, indicating a new daily uptrend. However, the RSI is overbought and we can see that the True Strength Indicator has reached a level that has seen other daily cycles correct. At day 15, a swing high could see stocks move down into a half cycle low. A break below 2161.74 forms a daily swing high. But as long as they remain aloe the lower daily cycle band they will remain in a daily uptrend.

Treading Water

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Gold’s daily cycle peaked on day 25, formed a swing high and closed below the upper daily cycle band last week to signal that gold has begun its daily cycle decline.

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Monday was day 33 for the daily gold cycle. Our cyclical expectation is to see gold break below the daily cycle trend line in order to complete its daily cycle decline. But gold appears to be treading water, perhaps waiting on the dollar …

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The dollar has been consolidating since the BREXIT helped push it above the 200 MA. The dollar did manage to close above the 200 day MA on Monday. At this point, a break above the day 2 high of 96.87 would lock in a right translated cycle formation. Monday was day 16 which places the dollar 2 days shy of its timing band for a daily cycle low. So if the dollar does break higher, it would likely be short-lived before the dollar beings its decline into its daily cycle low.