Miner Swing

The Miners formed a swing low on Thursday.

The Miners were stopped by resistance at the 200 day MA and declining trend line last week. They formed a swing high and broke lower, closing below the 10 day MA on Tuesday. The Miners have been in a daily downtrend. In real time, rejection at the 200 day MA on day 8 followed by closing below the 10 day MA on Tuesday looked is if the Miners were setting up for a left translated daily cycle formation which would continue the intermediate cycle decline.

However, the Miners recovered the 10 day MA on Wednesday. Then delivered bullish follow through by forming a swing low on Thursday. This sets the Miners for a possible test and breakout of of the 200 day MA. Those with a higher risk tolerance can enter long positions, using the 10 day MA as the stop. A safer entry would be waiting for a close above the 200 day MA.

Stocks Still Need To Cross The Line

Stocks have formed a weekly swing low.

Last week was week 25. That placed stocks in their timing band for an intermediate cycle low to form. And last week’s weekly bullish engulfing candle combined with this week’s weekly swing low signals that stocks have printed their intermediate cycle low.

Stocks are being suppressed by resistance from the 200 week MA. Stocks will need to close above the 200 week MA before the new intermediate cycle can gain any traction.

Is it Coal’s Time to Shine ?

I will be using KOL as a proxy for Coal.
Coal has been forming a yearly cycle low on average every 14.5. years over the past 10 years.

March is month 15, which places coal right in its timing band for a yearly cycle low.

The weekly cycle is a bit erratic so we will need to rely on some of our other tools to identify a weekly low. But coal did print its lowest point on week 17, which is in the early part of its timing band for an intermediate cycle low. Oil has formed a TSI Bullish Weekly Crossover for from a level that has seen other intermediate cycle lows form. And as of Monday’s close, it is just 2 cents from forming a weekly swing low.

The daily chart shows that coal has formed a swing low, closed above the 10 day MA, and has begun to turn the 10 DMA higher to signal that day 35 hosted the daily cycle low.

To recap:
* Coal is in its timing band for a yearly cycle low.
* Coal is only 2 cent away from forming a weekly swing low to indicate a new intermediate cycle.
* Coal has just signaled the start of a new daily cycle.

One way to invest would be to look into the coal mining stocks such as HCC or ARCH.
A simpler way would be the coal ETF – KOL — which happens to sport a 13 % dividend.

The 3/28/20 Weekend Report Preview

The Dollar

 
The dollar closed below the 10 day MA on Thursday then below the 50 day MA on Friday to confirm the daily cycle decline.

The previous daily cycle ran long at 46 days. So it is possible that the current daily cycle will run short. Support at the 200 day MA could trigger a DCL to form. The dollar is in a daily uptrend. If a swing low forms above the lower daily cycle band then the dollar will remain in its daily uptrend and will also trigger a cycle band buy signal.

Stocks

Stocks signaled a new daily cycle.

Stocks printed their lowest point on Monday, day 35, placing them in their timing band for a daily cycle low. Stocks formed a swing low on Tuesday. Unlike the previous recent swing lows that delivered no bullish follow through, stocks did deliver bullish follow though on Wednesday by closing above the 10 day MA to signal a new daily cycle. Stocks still need to break above the declining trend line to confirm the new daily cycle. Stocks continue to close below the lower daily cycle band, indicating that stocks are in a daily downtrend. Stocks will remain in their daily downtrend until they can close back above the upper daily cycle band.

The entire Weekend Report can be found at Likesmoney Subscription Services

The Weekend Report discusses Dollar, Stocks, Gold, Miners, Oil, & Bonds in terms of daily, weekly and yearly cycles.
Also included in the Weekend Report is the Likesmoney CycleTracker

For subscribers click here.

You can email me at likesmoney@gmail.com to receive a sample copy of the Weekend Report

Miner Inflection Point


 
The Miners have rallied close to 60% since printing the daily cycle low on March 16th. But on Thursday they hit an inflection point.

Thursday was day 8 for the daily Miner cycle and the Miners ran into resistance at a triple resistance of the converging declining trend line, 50 day MA and the 200 day MA. The formation of a swing high here would set the Miners up for a potential left translate daily cycle which would indicate a continuation of the intermediate cycle decline. However, a bullish break above this inflection point would signal that the Miners are early in a new intermediate cycle.

Stocks From A Swing Low

Stocks formed a daily swing low on Tuesday.

Stocks printed their lowest point on Monday, day 35, which places stocks in its timing band for a daily cycle low. Stocks have formed some swing lows prior to Tuesday but delivered no bullish follow through. We will need to see a close above the 10 day MA in order to label day 35 as the daily cycle low.

However, there are some key sectors signaling that the daily cycle low is formed.

The Financials formed a convincing swing low on Tuesday, but we still need to see a close above the 10 day MA.

In the charts below you will see that both the Transports and the Semiconductor’s not only formed swing lows, but also closed convincingly above the 10 day MA.


So it looks like stocks have put in their daily cycle low. Stocks are also in their timing band for their intermediate and yearly cycle lows. (I plan to detail the status of intermediate and yearly cycles in the Weekend Report). So let’s say that Monday was the daily cycle low. Due to the exponential nature of the Coronavirus, we will need 2 to 3 more weeks before we can say with any confidence that the intermediate and yearly cycle lows have also formed. If the rate of new cases in the US slows, then that would make it likely that the DCL will also mark the ICL and the YCL. But if the number of cases accelerates, then that will certainly extend the intermediate and yearly cycle declines.

So we are not out of the woods yet.

Miner Potential

The status of the daily Miner cycle is not clear.

The Miners printed its lowest point on day 27, placing them in their timing band for daily cycle low. They proceeded to form a swing low the next day to signal a new daily cycle. But then the Miners were rejected by the declining 10 day MA last Wednesday have remained contained by the 10 day MA since then. This has caused the Miners to form a mini triangle consolidation. A bullish break out of the triangle consolidation would have us label day 27 as the daily cycle low. A close above the converging 50 DMA and 200 DMA would confirm the new daily cycle.

The 3/20/20 Weekend Report Preview

The Dollar

 
The dollar continued printing higher daily highs through Friday.

The dollar has had a monster week and has become quite stretched above the 10 day MA and will likely need to consolidate. The dollar is in a daily uptrend. It will remain ints daily uptrend unless it closes below the lower daily cycle band.

In the Weekend Report I discuss how this monster week for the dollar confirmed a new intermediate cycle. And I look at the implications for the yearly cycle, 3 year cycle and the 15 year super cycle.

Stocks

Stocks printed its lowest point on Wednesday.

Wednesday was day 32, which places stocks in its timing band for a daily cycle low. The bullish divergences on the oscillators indicate that a DCL is near. Stocks did form two convincing swing lows prior to Wednesday but delivered no bullish follow through. Stocks formed another swing low on Thursday, but Friday’s bearish close will likely end up negating Thursday’s swing low. We will need to see a swing low accompanied by a close above the 10 day MA in order to signal the daily cycle low. Stocks have been closing below the lower daily cycle band, indicating that stocks are in a daily downtrend. Stocks will remain in their daily downtrend until they can close back above the upper daily cycle band.

The entire Weekend Report can be found at Likesmoney Subscription Services

The Weekend Report discusses Dollar, Stocks, Gold, Miners, Oil, & Bonds in terms of daily, weekly and yearly cycles.
Also included in the Weekend Report is the Likesmoney CycleTracker

For subscribers click here.

You can email me at likesmoney@gmail.com to receive a sample copy of the Weekend Report

Seeking A Bottom

Stocks formed (another) swing low on Thursday.

Stocks printed its lowest point on Wednesday. That was day 32, which places stocks in its timing band for a daily cycle low. The bullish divergences on the oscillators indicate that a DCL is near. Stocks did form two convincing swing lows over the past week but delivered no bullish follow through. We will need to see a swing low accompanied by a close above the 10 day MA in order to signal the daily cycle low. Stocks have been closing below the lower daily cycle band, indicating that stocks are in a daily downtrend. Stocks will remain in their daily downtrend until they can close back above the upper radially cycle band.

Miner Interest

The Junior Miners are starting to look interesting. They rallied over 20% on Monday and over 23% on Tuesday. They did form a daily swing low but still haven’t recovered their 10 day MA. There is a good chance that they will need to retest the Friday low. But there is the possibility that they won’t.

Drilling down to the 30 minute chart we can see that GDXJ began an uptrend on the 30 minute cycle band, dipped a bit then renewed the 30 minute uptrend. In order to avoid using Friday’s low as the stop, long positions can be entered using the 50 MA on the 30 minute chart as the stop.