Miners Setting Up for a Major Decline

0

The Miners closed above both the 200 day MA and the 50 day MA on day 3 to confirm the new daily cycle. It has been downhill since then.

The Miners lost both the 50 day MA & the 200 day MA on Friday. The Miners continued lower on Tuesday forming a daily swing high. The peak on day 3 sets up an extremely left translated cycle formation. The Miners also closed below both the 10 day MA and the lower daily cycle band on Tuesday. This signals the daily cycle decline and a continuation of the intermediate cycle decline. And with Tuesday being only day 7, the Miners could trend lower for another 10 – 20 days before printing their daily cycle low.

I suspect part of the reason the Miners are heading lower is that the dollar seems to be emerging from an intermediate cycle low.

The monthly chart shows that the dollar’s monthly decline has been halted by the 200 month MA. Now the dollar is in its timing band for both a daily and intermediate cycle low. The dollar formed a daily swing low on Tuesday. Coupled that with the support from the 200 month MA makes likely that a new daily cycle will also trigger a new intermediate cycle.

Advertisements

Great Expectations

Stocks have been in a bull market since emerging out of the 2009 multi year low.

Stocks broke out above the bull market channel prior to correcting.

After peaking on day 48 stocks proceeded on a 10 day correction. Stocks printed their lowest point on day 58, placing them deep in their timing band for a daily cycle low. Stocks have since have rallied out of the day 58 low. They closed above the declining trend line and the 50 day MA to confirm a new daily cycle. They also recovered the bull market trend line.

In my special report Great Expectations I will discuss this recent correction in terms of the intermediate (weekly) and the yearly cycles. And how this correction is setting the stage for Great Expectations.

I would like to make this report available here. The Great Expectations special report and a complementary 6 week trial subscription to the Likesmoney Premium Site is available for $15.

The complementary subscription will give you full access to the premium site. It includes:

1) The Weekend Report, which is posted usually Sunday mornings. It discusses Dollar, Stocks, Gold, Miners, Oil, & Bonds in terms of daily, weekly and yearly cycles – Which includes the Likesmoney Cycle Tracker.

2) The Mid-Week Update. Posted on Wednesday’s is a review of the daily and weekly charts for the above mentioned asset classes.

3)The Weekend Updates take a look of the daily & weekly charts of the Dax, GYX, NATGAS & XLE.

4) Weekly Update of the Bullish Percentile Bingo

5) Frequent (just about daily) updates of my proprietary FAS Buy/Sell Indicator

The goal of the Weekend Report is to develop an on-going framework of expectations using cycle analysis.

For the Likesmoney special report Great Expectations and 6 week trial subscription offer click here.

Current subscribers can access the report here.

The 2/16/18 Weekend Report Preview

The Dollar
$$$

The dollar closed below both the 10 day MA and the lower daily cycle band on Wednesday to confirm the daily cycle decline and signal a continuation of the intermediate cycle decline. The dollar went on to break below the previous daily cycle low on Friday, forming another failed daily cycle.

The dollar printed its lowest point on Friday, day 16, which is a little early for a DCL. However the dollar printed a bullish reversal on Friday, which eases the parameters for forming a swing low. A break above 89.15 forms a swing low to signal the new daily cycle. The dollar is in a daily downtrend & will remain so unless it closes above it the upper daily cycle band.

Stocks
stocks

Stocks closed above the declining 10 day MA on Wednesday and then the broke above the declining trend line to close above the 50 day MA on Thursday to confirm the new daily cycled.

Stocks have rallied nearly 8% off the day 58 low. Such a strong rally over the past 5 days is indicative of an ICL. Stocks may also need to consolidate a bit before continuing to advance. Stocks are currently in a daily downtrend. A close back above the upper daily cycle band will end the daily downtrend and begin a new uptrend.

The entire Weekend Report can be found at Likesmoney Subscription Services

The Weekend Report discusses Dollar, Stocks, Gold, Miners, Oil, & Bonds in terms of daily, weekly and yearly cycles.
Also included in the Weekend Report is the Likesmoney CycleTracker

For subscribers click here.

You can email me at likesmoney@gmail.com to receive a sample copy of the Weekend Report

Stocks Confirm A New Daily Cycle

On Monday we observed that stocks formed a swing low and were in their timing band for a daily cycle low.

Monday’s swing low was the first signal that stocks formed a daily cycle low. The next signal arrived on Wednesday when stocks closed above the declining 10 day MA. On Thursday stocks closed convincingly above the declining trend line and the 50 day MA to confirm the new daily cycle.

Stocks has established a daily downtrend as it declined into its daily cycle low. If (when) stocks close above the upper daily cycle band that will end the daily downtrend and begin a new daily uptrend.

I plan to update the status of the intermediate equity cycle in the Weekend Report.

Follow Through

The dollar formed a swing high on Tuesday.

The dollar printed its lowest point on 1/25. That was day 40, placing the dollar deep in its timing band for a DCL. The dollar formed a swing low, but did not close above the 10 MA until 2/05 to signal the new daily cycle. The dollar has since turned the 10 day MA higher and pierced the declining trend line providing more proof that day 40 hosted the DCL.

However, the dollar appears to have been rejected by the declining trend line as it formed a swing high on Monday and delivered more bearish follow through on Tuesday. A close below the 10 day MA will signal that the dollar is extending its intermediate cycle decline. Which should be good news for gold.

Gold formed a swing low on Friday, Then delivered bullish follow through on Tuesday by closing above the 10 day MA to indicate a new daily cycle. Gold should break above the declining trend line to confirm the new daily cycle. And a close back above the upper daily cycle band will resume the daily uptrend.

Stocks Complete Swing Low

Stocks closed above Friday’s high to complete a swing low. This signals a new daily cycle.

The daily equity cycle printed its lowest point on Friday, day 58, placing stocks deep in their timing band for a daily cycle low. There are bullish divergences developing on the oscillators and the True Strength Indicator has printed a bullish crossover — all of which indicates that day 58 hosted the DCL. Stocks need to break above the declining trend line for confirmation of the new daily cycle.

But not only do I believe that stocks have completed a daily cycle low, the evidence also points to a weekly cycle low has formed as well.

A weekly swing low is required to signal a new intermediate cycle. While stocks would need to rally over 100 points to form a weekly swing low, there are other indicators pointing to a new intermediate cycle. First is the timing band. The intermediate equity cycle printed its lowest point last week, which was week 24. That placed stocks in their timing band for an intermediate cycle low. The weekly TSI is already at a level that has marked other ICL’s and it is beginning to turn. The weekly RSI has been in a bullish pattern and has begun to turn higher, which we have seen at other intermediate cycle lows.

The 2/09/18 Weekend Report Preview

The Dollar
$$$

The dollar pierced the declining trend line to confirm that Friday was day 11 of the new daily cycle.

The new high on day 11 begins to shift the odds towards a right translated daily cycle formation which would indicate that an intermediate cycle low has formed. Still, the dollar is in a daily downtrend. If the dollar forms a swing high below the upper daily cycle band it will remain in its d daily downtrend.

Stocks
stocks

Stocks volatility continued into Friday, where stocks broke below the previous daily cycle low to form a failed daily cycle and confirm the intermediate cycle decline.

Friday was day 58 for the daily equity cycle, placing stocks deep in their timing band for a DCL. Friday’s bullish reversal off the 200 day MA eases the parameters for forming a swing low. A break above 2638.67 forms a swing low to signal a new daily cycle. A break above the declining trend line will confirm the new daily cycle. Stocks have established a daily downtrend. They will remain in its downtrend unless they close above the upper daily cycle band.

Stocks did print another large Selling on Strength day on Friday. So even if Friday is the DCL, there will likely be more volatility as stocks emerge from the DCL.

The entire Weekend Report can be found at Likesmoney Subscription Services

The Weekend Report discusses Dollar, Stocks, Gold, Miners, Oil, & Bonds in terms of daily, weekly and yearly cycles.
Also included in the Weekend Report is the Likesmoney CycleTracker

For subscribers click here.

You can email me at likesmoney@gmail.com to receive a sample copy of the Weekend Report

Timing Band & Bullish Divergence

Stocks broke lower on Thursday. Breaking below Tuesday’s low extends the daily cycle decline.

Since emerging from the last yearly cycle low the daily equity cycle has averaged 40 days from trough to trough. So with Thursday being day 57, that places stocks deep in their timing band for a daily cycle low. And there are bullish divergences beginning to develop on the oscillators which often accompany a cycle low. And after a huge 3.75% drop there is real panic out there. We are getting close to a daily cycle low.

Stocks are also getting close to an intermediate cycle low.

The intermediate cycle has averaged 23.2 weeks since emerging from the 2009 low. The intermediate cycle peaked on week 22 and the formed a weekly swing high last week. This week stocks broke convincingly below the weekly trend line to confirm the intermediate cycle decline. And at 24 weeks that places stocks right in their timing band for their intermediate cycle low.

Therefore once the daily cycle low is confirmed, it will also likely mark the intermediate cycle low.

Breakouts & Backtests

Today we will take a quick look at the long term picture of the Transports and Steel.

Until recently the transports have been contained by a multi year consolidation.

Until recently, steel have been contained by a multi year resistance level.


Both the transports and steel are in the process of backtesting their respective breakouts. The formation of a weekly swing low will indicate a successful backtest of their respective recent breakouts. Both are in a weekly uptrend. So if a weekly swing low forms above the lower cycle band, they would remain in their uptrends and trigger a cycle band buy signal.

Potential Bottom

Stocks dropped over 4% on Monday. Stocks recovered on Tuesday gaining back over 40% of Monday’s drop to form a huge bullish reversal. This sets up a potential bottom.

Tuesday was day 54 for the daily equity cycle. That places stocks late in their timing band for a daily cycle low. Tuesday’s huge bullish reversal eases the parameters for forming a swing low. A break above 2701.04 will form a swing low to signal a new daily cycle. The large Selling on Strength number to printed on Tuesday indicates near term volatility due to still needing to exhaust the selling pressure. We will use a close above the declining 10 day MA as confirmation of the new daily cycle.