The 1/20/17 Weekend Report Preview

The Dollar
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The dollar peaked on day 16 and has printed its lowest point on Tuesday, day 26, which places the dollar in its timing band for printing a daily cycle low.

A swing low formed on Thursday. But the dollar needs to break above the declining trend line to confirm the new daily cycle.

Stocks
stocks

Stocks have been trading in a narrow range for over the past 6 weeks. While stocks remain above the upper daily cycle band, indicating a daily uptrend, the momentum indicators have been developing a bearish divergence.

Friday was day 13 for the daily equity cycle. If the intermediate cycle is to form as a left translated weekly cycle then the current daily cycle would need to also form as a left translated cycle. Therefore a close below the daily cycle trend line should send stocks into their daily cycle decline. It would also lock in an extremely left translated daily cycle formation.

The entire Weekend Report can be found at Likesmoney Subscription Services

The Weekend Report discusses Dollar, Stocks, Gold, Miners, Oil, & Bonds in terms of daily, weekly and yearly cycles.
Also included in the Weekend Report is the Likesmoney CycleTracker

For subscribers click here.

You can email me at likesmoney@gmail.com to receive a sample copy of the Weekend Report

Stocks Deliver Warning Signal

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Stocks delivered a warning signal on Thursday.

SPX

Stocks broke below the daily cycle trend line on Thursday. With a peak on day 4, this is setting up to be an extremely bearish left translated daily cycle. A close below the upper daily cycle band will confirm the daily cycle is in decline. A break below the previous daily cycle low of 2233.62 will form a failed daily cycle and confirm that the intermediate cycle is in decline. This aligns with what we were discussing on January 10th.

Gold also delivered a waring signal on Thursday.

gld

Gold formed a daily swing high on Thursday. At 22 days gold is in its timing band to seek out a daily cycle low. Gold will need to break below the daily cycle trend line to confirm that the daily cycle is in decline. A peak on day 20 indicates a right translated daily cycle formation. With gold emerging from a yearly cycle low our expectation is once a daily cycle low forms that the new daily cycle goes on to print a higher high.

Gold Establishing A Daily Uptrend

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Gold closed below the lower daily cycle band back in August to establish a daily downtrend.

1 gld downtrend

Once a cycle has entered a downtrend it will remain in its downtrend until it can close back above the upper daily cycle band, which gold did in January.

2 gld uptrend

Closing above the upper daily cycle band in early January ended golds daily downtrend. By continuously closing above the upper daily cycle band gold has now established a new daily uptrend.

3 bib picture

Looking back at last year, once gold has established a new daily uptrend it will continue in its daily uptrend until it closes below the lower daily cycle band.

This party is just getting started …

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A Closer Look at the Dollar

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The dollar lost the 50 day MA and also closed below the lower daily cycle band on Tuesday. The close below the lower daily cycle band indicates an end to the daily uptrend and also signals that the dollar has begun its intermediate cycle decline. A failed daily cycle will confirm that the dollar has entered its intermediate cycle decline. A break below 99.25 will form a failed daily cycle.

$$$ daily

Tuesday was day 25 for the dollar’s daily cycle placing it in its timing band to print a daily cycle low. A swing low and break of the declining trend line will then confirm the new daily cycle.

$$$ weekly

The dollar will need to break below the weekly trend line in order to complete its intermediate decline. Since the dollar is in its timing band to print a daily cycle low it is quite possible for that the dollar will need one more failed daily cycle to complete its intermediate cycle decline.

Gold Train

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I want to take a look at gold and what really drives this train …

37 year $$$:gold

It is undeniable that gold enters a bull market as the dollar declines into its 15 year super cycle low. In the Special Gold Report: Gold Train we will look at gold and its relation to the dollar. Then we will cover where the dollar is in its current 15 year super cycle and what that means for gold.

I would like to make this report available here. The Gold Train Report and a complementary 6 week trial subscription to the Likesmoney Premium Site is available for $15.

The complementary subscription will give you full access to the premium site. It includes:

1) The Weekend Report, which is posted usually Sunday mornings. It discusses Dollar, Stocks, Gold, Miners, Oil, & Bonds in terms of daily, weekly and yearly cycles – Which includes the Likesmoney Cycle Tracker.

2)The Mid-Week Update. Posted on Wednesday’s– This is a review of the daily and weekly charts for the above mentioned asset classes.

3)The Weekend Updates that look of the daily & weekly charts of GYX, Copper, NATGAS & XLE.

4)Weekly Update of the Bullish Percentile Bingo

5) Frequent (just about daily) updates of my proprietary FAS Buy/Sell Indicator

The goal of the Weekend Report is to develop an on-going framework of expectations using cycle analysis.

For the Likesmoney Special Gold Train Report and 6 week trial subscription offer click here.

Current subscribers can access the report here.

The 1/13/17 Weekend Report Preview

The Dollar
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After peaking on day 16, the dollar formed a swing high & closed below the upper daily cycle band to signal the daily cycle decline.

The dollar printed its lowest point on Thursday, day 23, following the cycle peak. The dollar could still break lower but a move above 101.77 forms a swing low to signal a new daily cycle. A close above the declining trend line would then confirm the new daily cycle. The dollar has closed above the lower daily cycle band, maintaining its daily uptrend. It will remain in its daily uptrend unless it closes below the lower daily cycle band.

Stocks
stocks

Friday was day 9 for the daily equity cycle. While stocks remain above the upper daily cycle band, indicating a daily uptrend, the momentum indicators have been developing a bearish divergence.

If the intermediate cycle is to form as a left translated weekly cycle then the current daily cycle would need to also form as a left translated cycle. Therefore a close below the 10 day MA could send stocks into their daily cycle decline.

The entire Weekend Report can be found at Likesmoney Subscription Services

The Weekend Report discusses Dollar, Stocks, Gold, Miners, Oil, & Bonds in terms of daily, weekly and yearly cycles.
Also included in the Weekend Report is the Likesmoney CycleTracker

For subscribers click here.

You can email me at likesmoney@gmail.com to receive a sample copy of the Weekend Report

Possible Turning Signals

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The dollar printed a bullish reversal on Thursday which is a potential turning signal for the dollar.

$$$ daily

Thursday was day 23 for the dollar’s daily cycle. That places the dollar in its timing band for a daily cycle low. The bullish reversal and recovering the 50 day MA are bullish signals that a daily cycle low has formed. We will need to see the dollar complete a swing low and break above the declining trend line in order to confirm the new daily cycle. A break above 101.77 will form a daily swing low.

Bonds also printed a reversal which is a potential turning signal.

1 tlt daily

Thursday was day 19 for the daily bond cycle, placing bonds in their timing band for seeking a daily cycle low. Thursday’s bearish reversal has eased the parameters for forming a daily swing high. A break below 121.79 will form a daily swing high to signal the start of the daily cycle decline. A would like to see a close below the 10 day MA for confirmation of the daily cycle decline. A new high assures us of a right translated daily cycle formation so we are expecting bonds to print a higher daily cycle low. By closing above the upper daily cycle band signals that bonds are establishing a new daily uptrend.

Growing Bearish Divergence

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Stocks have been closing above the upper daily cycle band, which indicates that they are in a daily uptrend. Despite being in a daily uptrend, some bearish concerns are beginning to develop.

spx daily

This is month 11 for the yearly equity cycle. Stocks are due to begin their decline into a yearly cycle low. We can see that the momentum indicators are beginning to develop bearish divergences. A failed daily cycle is required to begin the yearly cycle decline. So we are watching of signals that the daily cycle will develop as a left translated cycle. A close below the upper daily cycle band usually signals the start of the daily cycle decline. Then a close below the lower daily cycle band results in an end to the daily uptrend and possibly the beginning of the daily downtrend.

Oil Confirms Daily Cycle Decline

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Oil formed a daily swing high and broke below the daily cycle trend line on Monday to confirm its daily cycle decline.

oil daily

Monday was day 37 for the daily oil cycle. That places oil in its timing band for a daily cycle low. The peak on day 33 assures us of a right translated cycle formation. Therefore our cyclical expectation is to see oil print a higher daily cycle low. But our longer term view is more bearish.

oil yearly

January is month 11 for the yearly oil cycle. That places oil in its timing band to seek out a yearly cycle low. A failed daily cycle is necessary to confirm the yearly cycle decline. Therefore we will be watching to see if the next daily cycle forms as left translated failed daily cycle that will usher in the yearly cycle decline.

Bullish Behavior

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Since our discussion from last week, the Miners have formed a monthly swing low to signal a new yearly cycle.

gdx daily

Notice that the Miners were in a daily downtrend as it declined into its yearly cycle low. That was characterized by peaks below the upper daily cycle band with lows forming below the lower daily cycle band. That is beginning to change. The Miners have begun to close above the upper daily cycle band. This is bullish behavior that signals an end to the daily downtrend. As the Miners establish a daily uptrend we should see peaks above the upper daily cycle band and cycle lows forming above the lower daily cycle band.