Golden Possibilities

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The Miners found support at the 50 day MA on day 16. The subsequent swing low and mini trend line break appeared as if an early daily cycle low had formed. Which would mean that the Miners have just failed this new daily cycle.

But there is another possibility to consider …

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Instead of day 16 being an early daily cycle low, it is possible that the bounce simply set the declining trend line making today day 24 for the Miners daily cycle.

Gold experienced a similar situation, being turned lower by the declining trend line.

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Like the Miners, day 17 could be an early daily cycle low. But the subsequent bounce out of that low failed to break above the declining (black) trend line. Because of this, I simply cannot rule out the possibility that Thursday is day 24 for gold’s daily cycle and day 24 for the Miner’s daily cycle.

Some of this may resolve on Friday. The jobs numbers come out on Friday and that could provide the catalyst for the dollar to begin its intermediate decline.

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Thursday was day 6 for the dollar’s daily cycle. A failed daily cycle is required for an intermediate cycle decline. Failed daily cycles typically peak on or before day 8. So the possibility exists for the dollar to top on “Jobs Friday” and then decline into an intermediate cycle low.

The scenario of both the Miners and gold being on day 24 of a failed daily cycle with the dollar rolling over into an intermediate cycle decline is a golden possibility. This hinges on the dollar. Making the dollar the joker in the deck.

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Storm Warning

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Today was day 21 for the daily equity cycle and stocks continued to drift lower.

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Stocks could be setting a half cycle low. But with this being the third daily cycle, stocks may have begun their decline into an intermediate cycle low.

spx weekly

At 19 weeks, stocks are in their timing band to seek out an intermediate cycle low. Stocks cannot begin their intermediate decline without forming a weekly swing high, which they have done.

The next step is for a failed daily cycle. Currently a peak on day 16 favors a left translated cycle formation, which holds the expectation of a failed daily cycle. So unless stocks can recover soon, they will begin to feel the gravitational pull of the impending intermediate cycle low.

Bearish Follow Through

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Last night we looked at how the Miners were rejected by the declining trend line. Today they delivered more bearish follow through.

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The daily Miner cycle peaked on Friday, day 4 as it tagged the declining trend line. Monday saw the Miners form a swing high, but found support at the 50 day MA. The Miners lost that support today closing down 1.83% for the day. This daily cycle is in trouble. A break below 20.21 forms a failed daily cycle. With the Miners on day 6 we could see the Miners decline for up to another 3 to 4 weeks.

Bonds also delivered some bearish follow through today.

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The daily bond cycle peaked on day 6 as it closed just above the 50 day moving average. Now that appears to be a bull trap because bonds formed a swing high the next day, losing the 50 day MA. Bonds broke below the daily cycle trend line on Monday in a clear and convincing manner with more bearish follow through today. Bonds are in jeopardy of forming a failed daily cycle. A break below 125.67 forms a failed daily cycle. With today being day 10 means that bonds trend lower for 2 to 3 more weeks before printing a daily cycle low.

Miner Rejection

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The new daily cycle for the Miners looked promising. They formed a daily cycle low on support from the 50 day MA. The Miners rallied out of that 16 day DCL and managed to tag the declining trend line on Friday.

gdx

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The Miners were rejected by the declining trend line today in a clear and convincing manner. The Miners formed a swing high and now are on the verge of forming a failed daily cycle. Should the Miners lose the 50 day MA, currently at 20.61, it will likely mean a failed daily cycle will shortly follow. A break below 20.21 forms a failed daily cycle and a continuation of the intermediate cycle decline.

The 2/27/15 Weekend Report Preview

The Dollar
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The dollar peaked two days after QE Euro was announced. Then the dollar proceeded to consolidate the huge rally out of the three year cycle low. The dollar broke out of consolidation on Thursday in a clear and convincing manner.

1 $$$ Dailyhttp://postimg.org/image/co6fk27q9/

The daily cycle that formed during this consolidation peaked on day 6, locking in a left translated nature to this daily cycle. Left translated cycles typically fail, unless they occur during a triangle consolidation. When that happens the daily cycle low is not the lowest point following the cycle peak. The cycle low is the lowest point of the apex prior to the break out, day 15 in this case.

The dollar is due for a failed daily cycle to lead to an intermediate cycle decline. Things are setting up potentially for the dollar to have a short rally that could rollover next week on Jobs Friday with the release of the employment numbers.

Stocks
stockshttp://postimg.org/image/69wujdu9x/

The daily equity cycle peaked on Wednesday, day 16. It then formed a swing high on Thursday and delivered more bearish follow through on Friday.

92 spx dailyhttp://postimg.org/image/7hipsgk2x/

This is the third daily cycle for the current intermediate cycle. As we will discuss in the Weekend Report, stocks are in the timing band to seek out an intermediate cycle low. Therefore we are suspicious that this daily cycle will form in a left translated manner and fail, leading to the intermediate cycle decline.

While bearish signals are beginning to manifest themselves, stocks delivered a conflicting money flow signal. Stocks printed a whopping 1.3 billion Buying on Weakness number on Friday. The BOW (and SOS) numbers are not precise timing tools. But extreme numbers need to be factored into consideration.

Below is the Cycle Tracker, which is a normal feature of the Weekend Report.

Likesmoney Cycle Tracker
As of 2/27/15

http://imageshack.com/a/img540/5307/ldA9yr.jpg

89 cycletracker 2http://postimg.org/image/ykgylm6w1/

The entire Weekend Report can be found at Likesmoney Subscription Services

The Weekend Report discusses Dollar, Stocks, Gold, Miners, The CRB Index, & Bonds in terms of daily, weekly and yearly cycles.
Also included in the Weekend Report is the Likesmoney CycleTracker

To subscribe: http://likesmoneysubscriptionservices.wordpress.com/

For subscribers click here.

You can email me at likesmoney@gmail.com to receive a sample copy of the Weekend Report

Unrelenting Dollar Strength

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The dollar’s daily cycle peaked on day 6. With Wednesday being day 15 the dollar has assured us of a left translated cycle. Our expectation was for the dollar to break below the previous daily cycle low, producing a failed daily cycle.

Today the dollar delivered a bullish surprise.

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It appeared yesterday that the loss of the 10 MA signaled a final decline into a daily cycle low. Instead today’s clear and convincing declining trend line break confirms a new daily cycle.

The dollar is currently on week 19 of its intermediate cycle. Allowing 4 – 6 weeks for this daily cycle to conclude will take the dollar to the later stages of its timing band for an intermediate low. So we would expect to see this new cycle form as a left translated cycle.

Perhaps that is part of the reason that precious metals managed to rally despite the dollar strength.

goldhttp://postimg.org/image/ask8r0jil/

If you were to tell me that the dollar would break with expectations and instead of forming a failed daily cycle deliver a 1.19% gain on the day as it launched into a new daily cycle, I would have expected for gold to tank. Instead, gold held up extremely well, perhaps sniffing out the impending intermediate dollar decline.

Gold printed its lowest point on Tuesday. It formed a swing low yesterday and delivered more bullish follow through today. Gold would need to rally past day 12 to assure us that this daily cycle will form as a right translated cycle.

So we will need to watch the 50 day MA and the 200 day MA. If gold is rejected by either one of these important moving averages, it would signal that gold will continue into its final intermediate cycle low. If gold is able to regain both of these moving averages, then that would signal that gold has begun a new intermediate cycle.

The 2/26/15 Morning Report

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The Miners delivered a clear and convincing trend line break on Wednesday which signals a new daily cycle.

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The Miners printed their lowest point on Monday, day 16. Following an extended cycle count (30 days) it is not uncommon to see a shortened cycle to balance out the overall cycle counts.

Since this was a failed daily cycle, the swing low that formed on Wednesday not only signals a new daily cycle, but potentially a new intermediate cycle. Regaining the 200 MA in a clear and convincing manner would signal that this is also a new intermediate cycle.

The dollar seems to be poised to help …

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Wednesday was day 15 for the daily dollar cycle. A peak on day 6 indicates that this cycle is forming as a left translated cycle. The dollar broke lower losing the 10 day MA. A break below 93.39 forms a failed daily cycle and signals an intermediate cycle decline.

Mapping Gold’s Possibilities

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In the Weekend Report we discussed labeling 1/29 as an 18 day, daily cycle low. The trend line break on February 3rd helped to confirm the new daily cycle. Gold has declined steadily since then.

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This sell off in gold is taking gold into an intermediate cycle low. The labeling of day 18 as a daily cycle low accurately reflects gold’s cyclical behavior and allows us to recognize that this is a failed daily cycle. Failed daily cycles are the hallmark of an intermediate cycle decline.

Tuesday was day 17 for gold’s daily cycle. Gold is just one day shy of entering its timing band for a daily cycle low. While gold can still go lower, a break above 1204.40 forms a swing low. Then a trend line break signals a new daily cycle.

If gold does form a daily cycle low soon, we will need to keep an eye on both the 50 day MA and the 200 day MA. Failure to regain both of these moving averages will likely signal a continuation of the intermediate decline.

However, the pattern of gold’s decline is emerging as a falling wedge pattern, which tends to resolve bullishly.

Which brings us to gold’s weekly chart.

gold weeklyhttp://postimg.org/image/x6imfv0t7/

Gold’s intermediate cycle peaked on week 11 and has declined steadily to this week, week 16. Gold is two weeks shy of entering its timing band for an intermediate cycle low. There is plenty of time left in this intermediate cycle to allow for one more daily cycle.

However, there is the possibility that a new daily cycle for gold could lead to an early intermediate cycle low. A break of the declining weekly trend line would signal a new intermediate cycle.

Relationships

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Tonight I wanted to take a look at the relationship of bonds & equities and bonds & gold.

tlt spx

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Since about mid-September bonds and equities traded inversely to each other…

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While bonds and gold followed each other more closely.

And as we can see that stocks have been rallying while bonds & gold have been caught in the grip of an intermediate cycle decline.

tlt

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The daily bond cycle peaked on day 6 and printed its lowest point last Tuesday, day 17. Bonds printed a swing low on Friday and delivered some bullish follow through today. The break of the declining trend line signals a new bond cycle.

And if the relationships that we observed continues to hold, then we can expect weakness in stocks as gold begins to rally.

The 2/20/15 Weekend Report Preview

The Dollar
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Although the dollar popped higher on Friday, day 6 remains as the cycle peak.

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The daily dollar cycle has peaked on day 6, formed a swing high, and delivered a trend line break signaling the daily cycle decline. The dollar may have simply set the declining trend line on Friday. With Friday day being day 12, the dollar could decline for up to 2 to 3 more weeks

Stocks
stockshttp://postimg.org/image/69wujdu9x/

Stocks broke out to new highs on Friday on the announcement that Greece has managed to kick the can down the road.

http://imageshack.com/a/img673/2782/u1QymU.jpg

This is the 3rd daily cycle for this intermediate cycle. Therefore we are suspicious of this cycle failing, leading to an intermediate cycle decline. The large SOS number on Friday adds to our suspicion.

The entire Weekend Report can be found at Likesmoney Subscription Services

The Weekend Report discusses Dollar, Stocks, Gold, Miners, The CRB Index, & Bonds in terms of daily, weekly and yearly cycles.
Also included in the Weekend Report is the Likesmoney CycleTracker

To subscribe: http://likesmoneysubscriptionservices.wordpress.com/

For subscribers click here.

You can email me at likesmoney@gmail.com to receive a sample copy of the Weekend Report