The 9/18/21 Weekend Report Preview

The Dollar

The dollar regained the 50 day MA on Monday then delivered bullish follow through on Thursday and Friday.

The dollar closed above the upper daily cycle band on Friday. Closing above the upper daily cycle band ends the daily downtrend and begins a new daily uptrend.

Stocks

Stocks closed below the 50 day MA on Friday.

Closing below the 50 day MA signals the daily cycle decline. The peak on day 10 sets stocks up for a left translated daily cycle formation. A break below the previous DCL of 4367.73 will from a failed daily cycle to confirm the intermediate cycle decline. Stocks are currently in a daily uptrend. But a close below the lower daily cycle band will end the daily uptrend and being a daily downtrend.

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The Weekend Report discusses Dollar, Stocks, Gold, Miners, Oil, & Bonds in terms of daily, weekly and yearly cycles.
Also included in the Weekend Report is the Likesmoney CycleTracker.

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Stocks Ready To Rally?

Stocks formed a swing low on Wednesday and printed a bullish reversal on Thursday. The previous 2 times that stocks tested the 50 day MA, dip buyers were rewarded with a continued rally.

Stocks printed their lowest point on Tuesday, day 17, which is too early for a DCL. But if stocks can close back above the 10 day MA then we will label day 17 as the half cycle low. Stocks are currently in a daily uptrend. Forming a swing low above the lower daily cycle band signals the continuation of the daily uptrend and triggers a cycle band buy signal, with the stop being a close below the 50 day MA.

Change Of Character

The advancing phase of the intermediate cycle is characterized by RSI 05 embedding in overbought and delivering quick bullish reversals once oversold. Stocks on Tuesday are beginning to show a change of character.

Instead of a quick bullish reversal, RSI 05 once again became oversold and is beginning to embed there. The previous 2 times that stocks tested the 50 day MA, dip buyers were rewarded with a continued rally. Stocks are still in a daily uptrend. If stocks form a swing low above the lower daily cycle band then they will remain in their daily uptrend and trigger a cycle band buy signal. However, a close below the 50 day MA would be another change in character that would signal the daily and intermediate cycle decline.

Half Cycle Low

Stocks are in a daily uptrend that is characterized by highs forming above the upper daily cycle band and lows forming above the lower daily cycle band.

Stocks rallied on Monday. If stocks form a swing low above the lower daily cycle band then stocks will remain in their daily uptrend and trigger a cycle band buy signal. And we would label day 16 as a half cycle low.

Then a close back above the 10 day MA will indicate that the trend line remains intact and that the rally continues.

The 9/10/21 Weekend Report Preview

The Dollar

The dollar printed its lowest point on day 25, placing it in its timing band for a DCL.

The dollar formed a swing low on Tuesday then closed above both the 10 day MA and the 50 day MA to confirm the new daily cycle. However the dollar closed below the 50 day MA on Thursday, forming a swing high. The dollar remained contained by the 50 day MA on Friday. If the dollar delivers bearish follow through that would signal the intermediate cycle decline. The dollar is currently in a daily downtrend. Forming a swing high below the upper daily cycle band signals a continuation of the daily downtrend and triggers cycle band sell signal.

Stocks

Stocks closed below the 10 day MA on Wednesday, then delivered bearish follow through Thursday and Friday to signal the daily cycle decline.

The peak on day 10 sets stocks up for a left translated daily cycle formation. At 27 weeks, stocks are deep in their timing band for an intermediate cycle decline. A break below the previous DCL of 4367.73 will form a failed daily cycle to confirm the intermediate cycle decline. Stocks are currently in a daily uptrend. But a close below the lower daily cycle band will end the daily uptrend and begin a daily downtrend.

The entire Weekend Report can be found at Likesmoney Subscription Services

The Weekend Report discusses Dollar, Stocks, Gold, Miners, Oil, & Bonds in terms of daily, weekly and yearly cycles.
Also included in the Weekend Report is the Likesmoney CycleTracker

For subscribers click here.

Oil Loses The 10 Day MA

Oil was running into resistance at the 50 day MA for the past week before closing below the 10 day MA on Thursday.

The bigger picture shows that oil is a pattern of forming lower highs and lower lows. A break below the 67.00 support level will signal the daily cycle decline. The peak on day 8 indicates a left translated daily cycle formation that aligns with oil being in a daily downtrend. Oil will remain in its daily downtrend unless it closes above the upper daily cycle band.

Stocks Form Weekly Swing High

Stocks Formed a Weekly Swing High on Tuesday.

Stocks are now 27 weeks into the current intermediate cycle. That places them deep in their timing band for an intermediate cycle decline.

There are bearish divergences developing on the oscillators and the True Strength Indicator has formed a bearish crossover. With a peak on day 10, if stocks deliver bearish follow through to close below the 10 day MA that would set stocks up for a left translated daily cycle formation. Then a break below the previous daily cycle high of 4480.26 can be used as a hard stop to to avoid a potential ICL decline.

The 9/04/21 Weekend Report Preview

The Dollar

The dollar closed below the 50 day MA on Wednesday then delivered bearish follow through Thursday and Friday.

Friday was day 25 for the daily dollar cycle, which places it in its timing band for a DCL. Closing below the 50 day MA signals that the intermediate cycle decline has begun. The dollar also closed below the lower daily cycle band. Closing below the lower daily cycle band ends the daily uptrend and begins a daily downtrend. It is another signal that the intermediate cycle decline has begun. However a failed daily cycle is needed to confirm the intermediate cycle decline. A break below the previous DCL of 91.76 will form a failed daily cycle.

Stocks

Stocks formed a daily swing high on Friday.

At 26 weeks, stocks are due for an intermediate cycle decline. There are bearish divergences developing on the oscillators. With a peak on day 10, if stocks deliver bearish follow through to close below the 10 day MA that would set stocks up for a left translated daily cycle formation. Then a break below the previous daily cycle high of 4480.26 can be used as a hard stop to to avoid a potential ICL decline.

The Weekend Report discusses Dollar, Stocks, Gold, Miners, Oil, & Bonds in terms of daily, weekly and yearly cycles.
Also included in the Weekend Report is the Likesmoney CycleTracker

The entire Weekend Report can be found at Likesmoney Subscription Services

For subscribers click here.

Bonds Bounce Back

Bonds regained the 10 day MA on Thursday.

Wednesday was day 15 for the daily bond cycle. Bonds will need to break above the day 6 high of 150.40 in order to shift the odds towards a right translated daily cycle formation.  That aligns with bonds being in a daily uptrend.  Bonds will remain in their daily uptrend unless they close below the lower daily cycle band. 

Miner Consolidation

The Miners have been consolidating below the July – 54 day DCL for the past 3 weeks.

The drop into the August 25 day DCL caused the 10 day MA to drop steeply. Consolidating below the July DCL is allowing the 10 day MA to flatten out, which it needs to do before it can begin to turn higher Once the 10 day MA begins to turn higher, the Miners will need to break above this resistance level in order for this rally to gain traction.