Stocks Deliver Weekly Buy Signal

Stocks

Stocks had a strong initial thrust out of its ICL that caused them to close above the 50 day MA and has been consolidating there last week. So I want to focus on the weekly chart.

Stocks printed their lowest point week on week 23 to place them in their timing band for an intermediate cycle low. Stocks have formed a weekly swing low, broke above the declining weekly trend line, and closed above the 10 week MA all of which confirms the new intermediate cycle. Stocks are in a weekly uptrend. Since the weekly swing low formed above the upper weekly cycle band, then stocks will remain in their weekly uptrend and this triggers a weekly cycle band buy signal.

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Bitcoin Delivers Second Buy Signal

We discussed last Thursday that Bitcoin was poised to deliver a buy signal.

Prior to last Thursday, Bitcoin had been in a daily uptrend that was characterized by lows forming above the lower daily cycle band and highs forming above the upper daily cycle band. So if a swing low formed above the lower daily cycle band then Bitcoin would remain in its daily uptrend and trigger a cycle band buy signal, which happened last Friday.

Now, Bitcoin delivered a second buy signal on Thursday.

Bitcoin closed above the upper daily cycle band on Thursday. Closing above the upper daily cycle band resumes the daily uptrend and triggers a second cycle buy signal signal.

Stocks Deliver Weekly Buy Signal

Stocks closed lower on Monday.

But the bigger picture is that stocks have formed a weekly swing low this week.

Stocks printed their lowest point last week, which was week 23. That placed stocks in its timing band for an intermediate cycle low. The weekly swing low, breaking above the declining weekly trend line, and breaking above the 10 week MA all confirm that this is week 1 for the new intermediate cycle. Stocks have been in a weekly uptrend. And since the weekly swing low formed above the lower weekly cycle band, stocks remain in their weekly uptrend and that triggers a weekly cycle band buy signal.

Miner Correction

The Miners formed a daily swing high on Monday.

Monday was day 26 for the daily Miner cycle. That places the Miners in their timing band for a daily cycle low. The peak on day 25 assures us of a right translated daily cycle formation which gives us the expectation for the Miners to print a higher daily cycle low. There are 2 lower gaps that can potentially get filled. The upper gap will likely get filled during this correction. But there is a chance that the lower gap will remain unfilled.

The Miners should break below the 10 day MA and turn it lower before it forms its daily cycle low. Once the Miners close below the 10 day MA then we will look for a swing low to signal the new daily cycle. There are 2 obvious support levels where the daily cycle low could form, the 50 day MA and the 200 day MA.

The 6/08/19 Weekend Report Preview

The Dollar

The dollar broke below the previous daily cycle low on Wednesday to form a failed daily cycle.

The dollar printed its lowest point on Friday, day 18. That places the dollar in the early part of its timing band for a daily cycle low. The approaching 200 day MA is a likely spot to provide support to the dollar and could trigger an early DCL. The dollar has begun to close below the lower daily cycle band. This ends the daily uptrend and begins a daily downtrend. Closing below the lower daily cycle band also signals that the intermediate cycle decline has begun.

Stocks

Stocks continued to rally out of its daily cycle low.

Stocks regained the 200 day MA on Tuesday and the 50 day MA on Friday. Stocks are still in a daily downtrend. However a close above the upper daily cycle band will end the daily downtrend and begin a daily uptrend. And closing above the upper daily cycle band will also indicate that the intermediate cycle low has been set.

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Also included in the Weekend Report is the Likesmoney CycleTracker

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Potential Bitcoin Buy Signal

Prior to February, Bitcoin had been in a daily downtrend that was characterized by highs forming below the upper daily cycle band and lows forming below the lower daily cycle band. That changed in February.

Bitcoin closed above the upper daily cycle band in early February. Closing above the upper daily cycle band ended the daily downtrend and began a daily uptrend. Its daily uptrend has been characterized by lows forming above the lower daily cycle band and highs forming above the upper daily cycle band.

The last 4 daily cycle lows occurred between day 23 and day 36. Thursday was the lowest point since peaking on day 31. Thursday was day 36 which places Bitcoin in line with the previous 4 daily cycle lows. And Bitcoin closed above the lower daily cycle band. If Bitcoin can form a swing low above the lower daily cycle band then Bitcoin will remain in its daily uptrend and trigger a cycle band buy signal.

Stocks Form Daily Cycle Low

Stocks formed a swing low on Tuesday.

Stocks printed their lowest point on Monday, day 59. Only once in the past 16 daily cycles has the cycle count exceeded 59 days so Tuesday’s swing low quite likely marks the daily cycle low. There are already 3 levels of confirmation of the daily cycle low. There is a bullish crossover on the oscillators, stocks regained the 200 day MA in a clear and convincing manner, and stocks also recovered the breakdown form the day 45 low. A close above the declining trend line would provide final confirmation of the daily cycle low. I also suspect that stocks have formed a larger degree intermediate cycle low which I plan to discuss in the Wednesday Mid-Week Report.

Major Opportunity for Miners

Last week on Tuesday we took a look at the Miners.

We discussed how the consolidation pattern following the multi week sell off reminded me of a chart from 2011.

I saw similarities between the how the current sell off in the Miners reminded me of the dollar’s multi week sell off from 2011. After a multi week consolidation the dollar built up a lot of energy that resulted in a powerful trending move.

And the recent consolidation of the Miners also built up energy and its release has begun a powerful move. After such a powerful initial thrust we can expect some consolidation at some point. However, not only do I think that the Miners are rallying out of a daily and intermediate cycle low, but I believe that May 2nd will turn out to be the lowest point of the year, which is something that I plan on discussing in more depth in the Weekend Report.

In hindsight, the perfect time to load up would have been last Wednesday. However, I am going to suggest that you to not let the perfect get in the way of the good enough. If I am correct that May 2nd will be the lowest point of the year for the Miners, then this rally will have many weeks to go. And using a chart of the Miners from 2016 it is easily seen that entering after a couple of days after the rally started ended up being good enough.

The 6/01/19 Weekend Report Preview

The Dollar

The bearish reversal on day 8 remains as the daily cycle high.

The dollar closed back below the 10 day MA and the daily cycle trend line on Friday to signal the daily cycle decline. The peak on day 8, indicates a left translated daily cycle formation. Still, the dollar is in a daily uptrend. It will remain in its daily uptrend unless it closes below the lower daily cycle band.

Stocks

Stocks formed a swing low on Thursday off of support from the 200 day MA. With stocks being late in their timing band for a DCL, this had good odds of forming the daily cycle low. Then stocks broke lower on Friday.

Stocks are not only seeking out their daily cycle low, but the weekly chart also indicates that stocks are seeking out their intermediate cycle low. Most intermediate cycle declines have a failed daily cycle. The current daily cycle has not (yet) failed. But losing the 200 day MA on Friday places stocks within striking distance for a failed daly cycle. A break below the previous daily cycle low of 2722.27 will form a failed daily cycle. Stocks are in a daily downtrend and will continue in its daily downtrend until it can close back above the upper daily cycle band.

The entire Weekend Report can be found at Likesmoney Subscription Services

The Weekend Report discusses Dollar, Stocks, Gold, Miners, Oil, & Bonds in terms of daily, weekly and yearly cycles.
Also included in the Weekend Report is the Likesmoney CycleTracker

For subscribers click here.

You can email me at likesmoney@gmail.com to receive a sample copy of the Weekend Report

Bullish Divergence

There is a bullish divergence forming on the McClellan Oscillator.

The NYMO has reached a level that has seen stocks form daily cycle lows. While stocks have formed a lower low, the McClellan Oscillator has formed a higher low. With stocks late in their timing band for a daily cycle low, the bullish divergence on the McClellan Oscillator indicates that stocks have formed a daily cycle low.

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Stocks did form a daily swing low on Thursday. Stocks printed their lowest point on Wednesday, day 56, placing stocks late in their timing band for a daily cycle low. There are bullish divergences developing on the oscillators which often accompany a cycle low. A recovery of the breakdown from the 45 day low would have us label day 56 as the DCL.