Miner Concerns

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In Monday’s report we discussed how the Miners are in a daily uptrend and a daily swing low would allow them to remain in their daily uptrend. Well, the Miners closed lower on Tuesday which gives me some minor concerns.

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Tuesday was day 21 for the daily Miner cycle. Tuesday’s drop caused the Miners to close below the 50 day MA. They also closed below the lower daily cycle band which signals an end of the daily uptrend. If the Miners break below the previous daily cycle low of 27.45 that would form a failed daily cycle.

So unless the Miners reverse immediately they are at risk of this developing into a daily downtrend. There are also concerns developing on the weekly chart.

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The Miners did form a weekly swing high last week. This week they broke below the intermediate cycle trend line which signals an intermediate cycle decline. If the Miners close out the week below the upper weekly cycle band that would provide more confirmation of an intermediate cycle decline. This is week 13 for the intermediate Miner cycle. Assuming that the Miners will print a daily cycle low this week, that still allows enough time for one more daily cycle to bring the weekly cycle into its timing band for an intermediate cycle low. So potentially we could see the next daily cycle develop as a left translated, failed daily cycle that would lead into an intermediate cycle decline.

Miner Uptrend

0 miner surprise

The Miners have been in a daily uptrend since emerging from its yearly cycle low.

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The Miner uptrend is characterized by daily cycles that peak above the upper daily cycle band wth daily cycle lows forming above the lower daily cycle band. Setting aside the 1st daily cycle following the yearly cycle low, the remaining daily cycles averaged 20 days from trough to trough.

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The Miners printed its lowest point on Monday, following the day 14 peak. Monday was day 20 which places the Miners in their timing band to print a daily cycle low. Monday’s narrow range day has eased the parameters for forming a daily swing low. A break above 29.59 will form a daily cycle low. Then a break above the declining trend line will confirm a new daily cycle.

If Monday ends up being the daily cycle low, that would mean that the Miners printed their DCL above the lower daily cycle band, indicating that the Miners remain in their daily uptrend. The Miners will continue in their daily uptrend unless they close below the lower daily cycle band.

The 8/19/16 Weekend Report Preview

The Dollar
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While day 27 is in the timing band for a daily cycle low, the lack declining trend line break makes it likely that the dollar is in an extended daily cycle decline with Thursday being day 39.

The dollar has established a daily downtrend. But Friday’s bullish harami signals a potential change. A break above 94.63 will form a daily swing low. Then a break of the declining trend line will confirm a new daily cycle.

Stocks
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Friday was day 38 for the daily equity cycle, placing stocks late in their timing band to seek out a daily cycle low. Stocks have printed several swing highs but has failed to deliver any bearish follow through into a daily cycle decline.

Stocks continue to close above the upper daily cycle band, indicating a daily uptrend. At this point we need to see a close below the upper daily cycle band to signal that stocks are moving into a daily cycle decline. A break out to a new high would suggest that stocks have begun a runaway move.

The entire Weekend Report can be found at Likesmoney Subscription Services

The Weekend Report discusses Dollar, Stocks, Gold, Miners, Oil, & Bonds in terms of daily, weekly and yearly cycles.
Also included in the Weekend Report is the Likesmoney CycleTracker

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Dollar Delivers Daily Downtrend

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Prior to August the dollar had been consistently closing above the upper daily cycle band which indicated that it was in a daily uptrend. Since August began, that has changed.

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The dollar began to close below the lower daily cycle band in early August. At first this signaled an end to the daily uptrend. Then the rally out of the day 27 low peaked below the upper daily cycle band before breaking lower. And for the past 3 days the dollar has closed below the lower daily cycle band. This confirms that the dollar has begun a daily downtrend.

While day 27 is in the timing band for a daily cycle low, the absence of a declining trend line break makes it likely that this is an extended daily cycle with Thursday being day 39.

And there is more bad news for the dollar.

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The dollar crashed below the 50 week MA on week 12 and then formed a weekly swing high. It was rejected by the 50 week MA signaling that the dollar has begun its intermediate cycle decline. And then today the dollar broke below the intermediate trend line, confirming its intermediate decline. If what I suspect is true that this is day 39 for the dollar’s daily cycle then the dollar should deliver a short bounce before completing its intermediate cycle decline.

And perhaps that is why gold did not break out if its current consolidation pattern.

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A peak on day 8 followed by a swing high and a close below the upper daily cycle band all indicate that gold is in a daily cycle decline. I would have thought that with the dollar breaking below its intermediate trend line that it would provide enough of a tailwind to send gold rocketing higher. But perhaps gold is sniffing out a pending daily cycle low on the dollar. Still, gold is in a daily uptrend. Gold will remain in its daily uptrend unless it closes below its lower daily cycle band.

The 8/18/16 Morning Report

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Stocks are in their timing band to seek out a daily cycle low. Stocks have printed 2 swing highs but has failed to deliver any bearish follow through into a daily cycle decline.

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On Wednesday stocks printed a bullish reversal that regained the 10 day MA. A break above Monday’s high of 2193.81 would suggest that stocks are beginning a runaway move. This is characterized by small corrections of 15 to 60 points as stocks continue to advance.

Stocks continue to close above the upper daily cycle band, indicating a daily uptrend. At this point we need to see a close below the upper daily cycle band to signal that stocks are moving into a daily cycle decline.

Bullish Energy

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The energy sector continues to develop bullishly.

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Tuesday was day 9 for the daily oil cycle. Oil broke above the declining trend line which delivers final confirmation of the new daily cycle. Oil also closed above the upper daily cycle band. This signals an end to the daily downtrend and confirms that oil has begun a new intermediate cycle.

NATGAS appears to be bottoming as well.

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NATGAS printed its lowest point on Friday, following the day 6 peak. NATGAS formed a swing low on Monday and then closed above the lower daily cycle band on Tuesday to indicate a new daily cycle. While Friday was only day 16, which is a bit early for a DCL, it does follow an extended 43 day daily cycle. So a 16 day cycle would help to even out the cycle counts. Now a break of the declining trend line will deliver confirmation of the new daily cycle .

Miner Swing High

0 miner surprise

Last Thursday we discussed how the Miners were delivering bearish signals. The Miners followed through on Monday by forming a daily swing high.

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Monday was day 15 for the daily Miner cycle. That places the Miners 3 days shy of entering their timing band to seek out a daily cycle low. The swing high that formed on Monday signals the start of the daily cycle decline.

Bonds are continuing their daily cycle decline.

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We discussed previously how bonds were becoming bearish. The daily bond cycle peaked on day 6, and formed a daily swing high on day 7. A peak on day 6 assures us of a left translated daily cycle formation. Monday was day 17 which places bonds on the verge of entering their timing band for a daily cycle low. The bearish turn on Monday should send bonds into their final daily cycle decline. A break below the previous daily cycle low of 136.74 would form a failed daily cycle and confirm the intermediate cycle decline.

The 8/12/16 Weekend Report Preview

The Dollar
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The dollar was rejected by the 200 MA which prevented it from breaking above the declining trend line. That makes it possible that Friday was day 35 of an extended daily cycle.

The dollar has started to close below the lower daily cycle band which ends the daily uptrend and indicates a daily downtrend has begun.

Stocks
stocks

Stocks entered their timing band to seek a daily cycle low this week. Because of that, we needed to be prepared for bearish follow through to the swing high that formed on Wednesday.

The 10 day MA held support on Wednesday. Stocks negated the swing high from Wednesday by breaking out to a new daily cycle high on Thursday. Now a break below Thursday’s low of 2177.97 will provide the next opportunity for stocks to form a daily swing high to begin their daily cycle decline. Stocks are currently in a daily uptrend and will remain in an uptrend unless they close below the lower daily cycle band.

The entire Weekend Report can be found at Likesmoney Subscription Services

The Weekend Report discusses Dollar, Stocks, Gold, Miners, Oil, & Bonds in terms of daily, weekly and yearly cycles.
Also included in the Weekend Report is the Likesmoney CycleTracker

For subscribers click here.

You can email me at likesmoney@gmail.com to receive a sample copy of the Weekend Report

Bearish Signal for the Miners

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The Miners delivered a bearish signal on Thursday.

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The Miners printed an exhaustion candle on Wednesday. Then followed up on Thursday by printing a bearish reversal. (Note how the previous daily cycle peaked on day 12) Thursday has eased the parameters for forming a daily swing high. A break below 30.968 will form a daily swing high then a break of the daily cycle trend line will confirm the daily cycle decline. Still the Miners are in a daily uptrend. They will remain so unless they close below the lower daily cycle band. oil

On the other hand, oil continues to develop bullishly.

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After closing above the 10 day MA on Monday, oil stalled on Tuesday. Oil back tested the 10 day MA on Wednesday and then had a big day on Thursday. Thursday was day 6 for the daily oil cycle and oil closed above the lower daily cycle band providing more confirmation of the new daily cycle. Oil still needs to close above the declining trend line to provide final confirmation of the new daily cycle.

The 8/11/16 Morning Report

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The daily equity cycle peaked on day 31. Then it formed a swing high on Wednesday to signal the daily cycle decline.

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While stocks did break below the daily cycle trend line on Wednesday, more bearish follow through is needed to confirm the daily cycle decline. A close below the 10 day MA would provide such assurance.

However, stocks are in a daily uptrend. Stocks will remain in an uptrend unless they close below the lower daily cycle band.

Biotech did provide bearish follow through on Wednesday.

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IBB formed a daily swing high on Monday. It delivered bearish follow through on Wednesday by breaking below the daily cycle trend line in a clear and convincing manner to confirm its daily cycle decline. Like stocks, IBB is in a daily uptrend. It will remain in a daily uptrend unless it closes below the lower daily cycle band.