Oil Runs Into Resistance

Oil ran into resistance on Wednesday.

Oil has been rallying out of the day 44 DCL. Oil did manage to close above the 200 day MA on day 4 only to lose it the next day. And since day 4, oil has been contained by the dual resistance of the 200 day MA and the 50 day MA. The bearish reversal that formed on Wednesday indicates that oil has being rejected by the dual resistance from the 200 day MA and the 50 day MA. Oil formed a swing high on Thursday and closed below the 10 day MA to set up a left translated daily cycle formation. Oil is currently in a daily downtrend. Since oil formed its swing high below the upper daily cycle band, oil will remain in its daily downtrend.

Advertisements

Miner Uptrend

The Miners delivered a cycle band buy signal on Tuesday.

Since early June the Miners have been in a daily uptrend. This uptrend has been characterized by highs occurring above the upper daily cycle band band lows forming above the lower daily cycle band.

Monday was day 34, placing the Miners in their timing band for a daily cycle low. The Miners formed a swing low on Tuesday that closed above the 10 day MA to signal a new daily cycle. And since the swing low formed above the lower daily cycle band, the Miners remain in their daily uptrend and trigger a cycle band buy signal. The Miners will remain in their daily uptrend unless they close below the lower daily cycle band.

Waiting on a Trend …

Stocks have rallied enough to confirm that stocks are 10 days into a new daily cycle. However, stocks are still in search of a trend.

Stocks are now on week 11 the intermediate cycle. The peak on week 7 followed by closing below the 10 week MA indicates that stocks are in an intermediate cycle decline. However, stocks are caught between the 10 week MA and the 50 week MA. Unless there is some type of major intervention from the Fed, stocks will likely continue their intermediate cycle decline. Stocks will need to either close above the 10 week MA or below the 50 week MA in order for a trending move to develop.

Is Natgas Ready to Ignite?

Natgas printed its lowest point on day 31, placing it in its timing band for a daily cycle low. A swing low had already formed. Natgas closed above the 10 day MA on Tuesday. Thursday’s big gain caused the 10 day MA to begin to turn higher which helps to confirm the new daily cycle. However Natgas remains emains contained by the declining 50 day MA.

And since Natgas lost the 50 day MA back in December of 2018 – it has been contained by the 50 day MA. Natgas will need to break convincingly above the 50 day MA in order for a bullish trend to develop.

Natgas is something that I routinely discuss in the Mid-Week Update and the Weekend Updates.

The 8/17/19 Weekend Report Preview

The Dollar

The dollar printed a bearish reversal on Friday.

The big picture is that the dollar is very late in its timing band for a yearly cycle decline and formed a bearish weekly reversal on week 5 to set up a potential left translated weekly cycle formation. A left translated daily cycle formation would align with the dollar declining into an intermediate cycle low. The bearish reversal on day 8 sets the dollar up for a potential left translated daily cycle formation. Still, the dollar is in a daily uptrend. The dollar will remain in its daily uptrend unless it closes below the lower daily cycle band.

Stocks

Stocks could not break above the 50 day MA and broke lower to back test the day 44 low.

Stocks backtested the day 44 low on Thursday. Stocks went on to form a swing low and closed above the 10 day MA on Friday. Therefore we will label day 44 as the daily cycle low, making Friday day 9 for the new daily cycle. Stocks have begun to close below the lower daily cycle band indicating a daily downtrend. Stocks will remain in their daily downtrend unless they can close back above the upper daily cycle band. And a daily downtrend is associated with being in an intermediate cycle decline.

The entire Weekend Report can be found at Likesmoney Subscription Services

The Weekend Report discusses Dollar, Stocks, Gold, Miners, Oil, & Bonds in terms of daily, weekly and yearly cycles.
Also included in the Weekend Report is the Likesmoney CycleTracker

For subscribers click here.

You can email me at likesmoney@gmail.com to receive a sample copy of the Weekend Report

Market Volatility

On Wednesday we discussed how the weekly outlook for stocks took a bearish turn. On Thursday it appeared that the Fed intervened to prevent stocks from breaking below the early August low, which is causing volatility in the market.

Stocks appear to be heading into an intermediate cycle low. Stocks are also caught between the 10 week MA and the 50 week MA. So while in there is uncertainty for stocks in the short term, we can be certain that a trending move cannot begin without stocks either closing above the 10 week MA or closing below the 50 week MA.

Weekly Outlook For Stocks Takes Bearish Turn

Stocks formed a bullish weekly reversal above support from the 50 week MA last week. Bullish follow through this week would have set up a half cycle low. Instead, the weekly outlook for stocks takes a bearish turn.

Stocks tested the 10 week MA on Tuesday. However they were soundly rejected by the 10 week MA on Wednesday. This is causing the weekly candle to form as a bearish reversal which negates last week’s bullish reversal. With a peak on week 7 that sets the intermediate cycle up for a left translated weekly formation. Since left translated cycles typically result as failed cycles, this week’s bearish reversal that is forming is setting up the expectation for stocks to break below the June low has it seeks out its intermediate cycle low.

The 8/14/19 Morning Update

Stocks were contained by the double resistance of the 10 day MA and the 50 day MA on Friday and continued lower on Monday. However stocks rallied on Tuesday.

Stocks printed their lowest point on day 44, placing them deep in their timing band for a DCL. Stocks closed above the 10 day MA on Tuesday to indicate that day 44 did host the DCL. A close above the 50 day MA will confirm that day 44 was the DCL. Stocks have begun to close below the lower daily cycle band indicating a daily downtrend. Stocks will remain in their daily downtrend unless they can close back above the upper daily cycle band.

Stocks Break Lower

While stocks did form a swing low on Thursday, they were contained by the double resistance of the 10 day MA and the 50 day MA on Friday.

Then stocks broke lower on Monday.

Stocks printed their lowest point on day 44, placing them deep in their timing band for a daily cycle low. We needed to see a close above those two moving averages for confirmation of a new daily cycle. Instead stocks were rejected by the convergence of the 10 day MA and the 50 day MA. And with stocks forming a swing high on Monday that signals a cycle band sell signal. Stocks are in a daily downtrend. They will remain in their daily downtrend until they can close back above the upper daily cycle band.

The 8/10/19 Weekend Report Preview

The Dollar

The dollar printed its lowest point on Tuesday, day 29, placing it in its timing band for daily cycle low.

The dollar did break below the daily cycle trend line on Tuesday. So it is possible that Tuesday is the daily cycle low. While a swing low formed on Thursday, the dollar appears to be forming a bearish flag. At this point we will use a close back above the 10 day MA to label day 29 as the DCL. The dollar is currently in a daily uptrend. It will remain in its daily uptrend unless it closes below the lower daily cycle band.

Stocks

Stocks printed their lowest point on Monday, day 44, to place them deep in their timing band for a daily cycle low.

Stocks did form a swing low on Thursday but remained contained by the convergence of the 10 day MA and the 50 day MA on Friday. We will need to see a close above those two moving averages for confirmation of a new daily cycle. Stocks have begun to close below the lower daily cycle band this week. That ended the daily uptrend and begins a daily downtrend. And daily downtrends are associated with intermediate cycle declines.

The entire Weekend Report can be found at Likesmoney Subscription Services

The Weekend Report discusses Dollar, Stocks, Gold, Miners, Oil, & Bonds in terms of daily, weekly and yearly cycles.
Also included in the Weekend Report is the Likesmoney CycleTracker

For subscribers click here.

You can email me at likesmoney@gmail.com to receive a sample copy of the Weekend Report