Bullish Progress

Stocks closed marginally lower on Tuesday.

Stocks did break out to new highs before closing lower on the day. Stocks made another test of the upper stem of the weekly triangle consolidation. We can also see that the 10 week MA is turning higher, which is a sign that week 17 did host the ICL. As we discussed yesterday, a break above the upper stem of the weekly triangle pattern will haves label week 17 as the intermediate cycle low.

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Bullish Expectation

On my 10/13 report we discussed how stocks had just formed a weekly swing low.

The weekly swing low was an indication that stocks formed an early intermediate cycle low.

Stocks have since progressed higher. A break above the upper stem of the weekly triangle pattern will haves label week 17 as the intermediate cycle low.

The Financials did break above the upper stem of their triangle consolidation.

The Financials breaking above the upper stem of their triangle consolidation aligns with our bullish expectation.

The 10/19/19 Weekend Report Preview

The Dollar

Boom – the dollar closed below the 200 day MA on Friday.

The dollar printed its lowest point on Friday, day 25 to place it in the its timing band for a daily cycle low. The dollar did break below the previous daily cycle low to form a failed daily cycle which confirms the intermediate cycle decline. The dollar is in a daily downtrend and will remain so unless it closes back above the upper daily cycle band.

In the Weekend Report we will look at weekly chart and see that this is week 16 for the intermediate cycle, which is early to expect an ICL. Therefore it it possible to see a swing low and recovery of the 200 day MA next week to signal a new daily cycle.

Stocks

Stocks closed above the declining trend line on day 6 and then delivered bullish follow through on Tuesday by closing above the upper daily cycle band.

Stocks got a bit stretched above the 10 day MA and will probably need several days to cool off in order to allow the 10 day MA to catch up to price. Closing above the upper daly cycle band ends the daily downtrend and begins a daily uptrend.

The entire Weekend Report can be found at Likesmoney Subscription Services

The Weekend Report discusses Dollar, Stocks, Gold, Miners, Oil, & Bonds in terms of daily, weekly and yearly cycles.
Also included in the Weekend Report is the Likesmoney CycleTracker

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You can email me at likesmoney@gmail.com to receive a sample copy of the Weekend Report

Miner Action

The Miners have trending lower swing early September and the daily cycle count has become obscured. I have Tuesday as being day 22, which places the Miners in the early part of its timing band for a daily cycle low. A swing low formed on Thursday which signals that Tuesday marked the daily cycle low.

Since the daily cycle count is not clear we will look at the weekly chart.

The weekly chart clearly shows us that the Miners peaked on week 18 then formed a weekly swing high on week 19. The Miners went on to print their lowest point this week, which is week 24. That places the Miners in their timing band for an intermediate cycle low. A weekly swing low accompanied by a break above the declining weekly trend line would have us label week 24 as the ICL. And a break above the Multi Year Resistance level would indicate a resumption of the Miner bull market.

The Train Is Leaving The Station

Back in June we looked at the Semi Conductors

We discussed how the Semi’s were poised to begin the next leg up in their bull market.

2-sox

Tonight we can see that the train is leaving the station.

3-sox

The question that I would ask myself if I did not have a position is:
“After a 17 year consolidation what’s more important? A perfect entry or just getting on board?”

Overhead Resistance For Oil – Revisited

Last week when we looked at oil we discussed two points.
1) That oil looked like it was beginning a new daily cycle.
2) The intermediate cycle set-up gave us the expectation that oil has begun its intermediate cycle decline.

Oil has closed above the declining trend line and the 10 day MA so we can label day 40 as the daily cycle low. However as we discussed last week the peak on week 6 sets oil up for a left translated weekly cycle formation. There is a bearish RSI pattern beginning to emerge on the daily chart that is associated with the declining phase of an intermediate cycle. And oil has begun to close below the lower daily cycle band. This indicates that oil is in a daily downtrend and is another signal that oil has begun its intermediate cycle decline.

The Stage Is Set

Stocks formed a weekly swing low last week.

The weekly swing low sets the stage for an early intermediate cycle low. In my special report, Great Expectations, I will discuss the possibility of forming an intermediate cycle low and what would be the expectations.

I would like to make this Special Report available here. The Special Report, Great Expectations, and a complementary 6 week subscription to the Likesmoney Premium Site is available for $20.

The complementary subscription will give you full access to the premium site. It includes:

1) The Weekend Report, which is posted usually Sunday mornings. It discusses Dollar, Stocks, Gold, Miners, Oil, & Bonds in terms of daily, weekly and yearly cycles – Which includes the Likesmoney Cycle Tracker.

2) The Mid-Week Update. Posted on Wednesday’s is a review of the daily and weekly charts for the above mentioned asset classes.

3)The Weekend Updates take a look of the daily & weekly charts of the Dax, GYX, NATGAS & XLE.

4) Weekly Update of the Bullish Percentile Bingo

5) Frequent (just about daily) updates of my proprietary FAS Buy/Sell Indicator

The goal of the Weekend Report is to develop an on-going framework of expectations using cycle analysis.

For the Likesmoney Great Expectations Special Report and 6 week trial subscription offer click here.

Current subscribers can access the report here.

The 10/12/19 Weekend Report Preview

The Dollar

Boom – the dollar closed below the 50 day MA on Friday.

Friday was day 20 for the daily dollar cycle, placing the dollar in the early part of its timing band for a daily cycle low. This is the first time that the dollar closed below the 50 day MA since it regained the 50 day MA back in July. The dollar also closed below the lower daily cycle band. Taken together they indicate that the dollar is not only in its daily cycle decline, but the intermediate cycle decline has also begun.

Stocks

Stocks printed its lowest point on day 42, which placed them in their timing band for a daily cycle low.

Stocks closed above the 10 day MA and the 50 day MA on Thursday. Then delivered bullish follow through by closing above the declining trend line on Friday to confirm Friday as day 6 of the new daily cycle. Stocks are currently in a daily downtrend. They will remain so unless they close above the upper daily cycle band.

The entire Weekend Report can be found at Likesmoney Subscription Services

The Weekend Report discusses Dollar, Stocks, Gold, Miners, Oil, & Bonds in terms of daily, weekly and yearly cycles.
Also included in the Weekend Report is the Likesmoney CycleTracker

For subscribers click here.

You can email me at likesmoney@gmail.com to receive a sample copy of the Weekend Report

Miner Action

The Miners backtested the 10 day MA on Thursday.

The status of the daily Miner cycle is not clear. The Miners printed a low on September 13th and then printed a lower low on October 1st. So while it is not clear if Day 18 was the DCL or it extended to October 1st, what is clear is if the Miners break above the declining trend line then we will label October 1st as a daily cycle low. In the Weekend Report I plan to discuss the implications now that the Miners have also formed a weekly swing low.

Volatility

Stocks formed a swing low and closed above the 50 day MA on Friday. In real time it looked as if day 42 was the daily cycle low. But after being rejected by the 10 day MA on Monday and delivering bearish follow through on Tuesday, the status of the daily equity cycle is uncertain.

Stocks could be entering another period of volatility, similar to August, where stocks churned below the 50 day MA. Stocks need to do one of two things to clarify the status of the daily cycle.

Scenario 1 – Day 42 was not the daily cycle low.
Since stocks have not closed above the 10 day MA nor have they broke above the declining trend line then it is still possible that stocks are seeking their daily cycle low. Therefore if stocks continue lower and break below the day 42 low that would extend the daily cycle decline.

Scenario 2 – Day 42 was the daily cycle low.
If day 42 was the daily cycle low then stocks would need stocks reverse once again and break above the declining daily cycle trend line which would confirm the new daily cycle.