The 8/01/15 Weekend Report Preview

The Dollar
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The dollar formed a swing high on Friday.

The dollar dropped in the pre-market and came with in three cents of forming a failed daily cycle. But then recovered during the day and managed to close above the day 10 MA.

Friday was day 4 for the daily dollar cycle. This is the 3rd daily cycle for the current intermediate cycle. The dollar’s intermediate cycle typically runs 3-4 daily cycles. So there is a possibility of seeing the current daily cycle form as a left translated cycle and fail, leading to an intermediate cycle decline.

Stocks
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The daily equity cycle peaked on day 9, formed a swing high and declined. Stocks printed their lowest point on Monday, tagging the 200 day MA and setting a half cycle low.

Stocks recovered, forming a swing low on Tuesday and printing higher highs through Friday. This is the first daily cycle of a new intermediate cycle. First daily cycles typically form as right translated cycles which usually peak on or after day 20.

Stocks did close lower on Friday. But the 387 million Buying on Weakness on Friday suggests more upside. This aligns with our expectation of this daily cycle forming as a right translated cycle.

The entire Weekend Report can be found at Likesmoney Subscription Services

The Weekend Report discusses Dollar, Stocks, Gold, Miners, The CRB Index, & Bonds in terms of daily, weekly and yearly cycles.
Also included in the Weekend Report is the Likesmoney CycleTracker

For subscribers click here.

You can email me at likesmoney@gmail.com to receive a sample copy of the Weekend Report

Danger Zone

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Gold formed a swing low off the day 34 low. But has yet to deliver confirmation of a new daily cycle. Gold is close to entering the Danger Zone.

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A break below 1072.30 will continue gold’s daily cycle decline. A similar set up occurred in early July where gold broke below the day 22 low, then needed 7 days to exhaust the selling.

However, a break above 1104.40 will likely signal that day 34 did mark the daily cycle low. The fact that gold did managed to close above the lows in the face of the dollar rallying keeps alive a day 34 daily cycle low scenario.

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The dollar formed a swing low and delivered a declining trend line break today to confirm Thursday as day 3 of a new daily cycle. The dollar has now begun its third daily cycle for the current intermediate cycle. Since the intermediate dollar cycle is typically comprised of 3 – 4 daily cycles we will need to keep in mind the possibility of this daily cycle peaking around day 8 to form a left translated cycle.

Black Gold

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Oil formed a swing low today.

99 oil daily

The daily oil cycle peaked on day 9 and has declined since. Oil printed is lowest point on Tuesday, day 42. Oil is in its timing band for a daily cycle low. The swing low today signals a new daily cycle. A break of the declining trend line will confirm a new daily cycle.

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Oil’s weekly cycle runs for 25 to 33 weeks. If a new daily cycle is confirmed, our cyclical expectation is to see a left translated daily cycle form, continuing the intermediate decline.

A Look at Stocks & Bonds

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Stocks printed an intermediate cycle low on July 7th. After peaking on Monday, day 9, stocks dropped for 5 straight days before finding support at the 200 day MA.

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We discussed over the weekend how this is the first daily cycle of a new intermediate cycle. And typically the first daily cycle forms as a right translated cycle. So it appears that stocks have left behind a half cycle low. Now we should see stocks break out to new highs which will lock in a right translated nature to this daily cycle.

It is interesting to note how stocks making new highs began to recover today while stocks making new lows dropped dramatically.

Bonds have also emerged from an intermediate cycle low. Bonds printed an intermediate cycle low late June. Once again we need to keep in mind that the first daily cycle typically forms as a right translated cycle. And with Monday’s peak at day 20, bonds have assured us of a right translated nature to this daily cycle.

tlt

But bonds have formed a swing high today. Bonds are in their timing band to seek out a daily cycle low. A close below the upper cycle band signals a daily cycle decline. We should see bounds then break below the daily cycle trend line before the daily cycle low is set. Then our expectation for the new daily cycle will be to go on to print new highs.

Bumpy Road, Continued …

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Last Thursday we discussed how one of the headwinds facing the Miners would be the dollar emerging from a daily cycle low.

The Miners might have begun sniffing out that scenario today …

So we begin with the dollar. We have been waiting on a break of the daily cycle trend line to confirm the daily cycle decline. The dollar delivered that trend line break on Monday.

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Monday was day 26 which places the dollar in the later stages of its timing band to print a daily cycle low. While the dollar can still go lower, a break above 97.41 forms a swing low. Then a declining trend line break confirms the new daily cycle. The peak on day 21 has locked in a right translation to this daily cycle. So our expectation is to see the new daily cycle go on to print a higher daily cycle high.

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The Miners printed a bullish reversal on Friday and followed that up with forming a swing low on Monday, but then closed lower on the day. With the dollar breaking below its daily cycle trend line I would have expected more from the Miners. But as we just mentioned, the Miners could be sniffing out the dollar’s impending daily cycle low.

The Miners have yet to confirm a new daily cycle. A close above the lower cycle band, currently at 15.40, would confirm the new daily cycle.

So it’s possible that we will see the Miners make one more break lower before printing its daily cycle low.

The 7/24/15 Weekend Report Preview

The Dollar
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The dollar’s daily cycle peaked on Tuesday, day 21. A swing high formed on Wednesday and the dollar lost the 10 day MA on Thursday. While the dollar did closed below the upper daily cycle band, indicating a daily cycle decline, it has yet to confirm the decline with a break of the daily cycle trend line.

Friday was day 25 for the dollar’s daily cycle. The dollar is beginning to get in the later stage of its timing band to print a daily cycle low. We need to see a break of the daily cycle trend line before we hunt for the daily cycle low. Once the dollar breaks below the daily cycle trend line, then a swing low should mark the daily cycle low.

Stocks
stockshttp://postimg.org/image/69wujdu9x/

After peaking on Monday, day 9, stocks dropped for 4 straight days. Stocks lost the 50 day MA and closed below the lower cycle band on Friday which indicates a daily cycle decline has begun.

However, the 1st daily cycle of a new intermediate cycle typically forms as a right translated cycle. And there is also the HUGE BOW that printed Friday.

The 1.086 Billion BOW suggests that Friday could end up being an early half cycle low. But there are other troubling signals for stocks. One of them was delivered by the small caps.

The Russell emerged from its intermediate cycle low but but was rejected by the upper daily cycle band. The Russell went on to lose the 50 day MA and closed below the July 7th low forming a failed daily cycle.

There are other warning signals which I cover in the Weekend Report.

Now a word on the Miners.

The Miners continued lower all week until Friday. The Miners printed a bullish reversal on Friday. At day 25, the Miners are in their timing band for a daily cycle low. The bullish reversal has eased the parameters for forming a daily cycle low. A break above 14.13 forms a swing low and quite likely the daily cycle low.

In the Weekend Report I will cover where the Miners are for their intermediate and yearly cycles.

This week I am extending a Miner Special Trial Subscription offer. Try the Weekend Report for 1 month for a Miner Special of $10.

The Weekend Report discusses Dollar, Stocks, Gold, Miners, The CRB Index, & Bonds in terms of daily, weekly and yearly cycles.
Also included in the Weekend Report is the Likesmoney CycleTracker.

I also post what I call my Weekend Updates.
The Weekend Updates cover
* Corn
* DBA
* The FAS Buy/Sell Indicator
* The Bullish Percentage BINGO

And I also post a mid-week update on Wednesday evenings which updates the daily charts from the Weekend Report.

To try the Miner Special Trial Subscription offer click here.

The entire Weekend Report can be found at Likesmoney Subscription Services

The Weekend Report discusses Dollar, Stocks, Gold, Miners, The CRB Index, & Bonds in terms of daily, weekly and yearly cycles.
Also included in the Weekend Report is the Likesmoney CycleTracker

For subscribers click here.

You can email me at likesmoney@gmail.com to receive a sample copy of the Weekend Report

Ground Floor Opportunity

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The Gold Miners are setting up for a ground floor opportunity …

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The Gold Miners Bullish Percentage Index has hit 0% bullish. This has happened only twice before.

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The first time the Miners rallied for over 24 %. The second time they rallied for over 36%.

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The Miners are currently in their timing band for a daily cycle low. A swing low now has good odds of marking the daily cycle low. And even possibly an intermediate cycle low, which I will discuss in the Weekend Report. Based on the preceding historical data, the BPGDM hitting 0% presents a ground floor opportunity.

Bumpy Road

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The GLD ETF formed a swing low today.

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The GLD ETF printed its lowest point on Wednesday, day 32, and formed a swing low today. However the swing low was not a clear and convincing swing low because GLD ended up closing lower on the day.

With the dollar breaking lower, GLD’s lower close signals that this may be a bumpy road.

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While the dollar closed lower today, it managed to recover a bit after tagging the daily cycle trend line. With Thursday being day 24, the dollar is starting to get to the later stage of its timing band to print a daily cycle low. We are still waiting on a trend line break to confirm the final daily cycle decline for the dollar. I expect gold to rally once the dollar breaks convincingly below its daily cycle trend line.

We need to keep in mind that this daily dollar cycle has locked in a right translated cycle formation, delivering the expectation for the next daily cycle to print a higher high. So if gold does confirm a new daily cycle, it will likely run into some strong headwinds as the dollar rallies out of the impending daily cycle low.

Timing Band

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The daily gold cycle usually prints a low every 18 to 24 days. Recently that has stretched to 28 – 30 days. So at day 32, this daily cycle is getting stretched. A swing low should mark the daily cycle low. I decided to use the GLD ETF to look for a swing low.

glld

A break above 105.09 forms a daily swing low. And with gold being so deep in its daily cycle, a swing low should also mark the daily cycle low.

The Miners are also in their timing band to print a daily cycle low.

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Today’s lower low has eased the parameters for forming a swing low. A break above 14.29 forms a swing low and quite likely the daily cycle low.

Swings

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We discussed here yesterday that gold is in its timing band for a daily cycle low. So we are now hunting for a swing low to signal a new daily cycle. Another thing we were watching for was for the dollar to form a swing high. Today the dollar delivered a swing high.

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Tuesday was day 22 for the daily dollar cycle. The dollar is in its timing band for a daily cycle low so today’s swing high has good odds of beginning the daily cycle decline. A break of the daily cycle trend line will confirm the daily cycle decline. And a decline into its daily cycle low should allow gold to find its legs and form a swing low, signaling a new daily cycle.

gold

Gold did post a gain today, but would still need to rise over 30 handles to form a swing low. Silver, on the other hand, is less than 1.2% away from forming a swing low.

silver

Silver typically leads gold out of lows. So a swing low in silver would indicate that a gold swing low will soon follow.