Miners Confirm Major Decline

0

The Miners closed below the upper daily cycle band and broke below the daily cycle trend line. This confirms that the Miners have begun their daily cycle decline.

gdx daily

A peak on day 5 assures us of a left translated cycle formation. Left translated cycle formations typically result in a cycle failure, confirming the intermediate cycle decline.

gdx weekly

The Miners have been rejected by the 200 week MA and are declining into an intermediate cycle low. Since the Miners printed a higher high this week, the earliest a weekly swing high can form will be next week. A weekly swing high and a break below the weekly trend line will provide further confirmation of the intermediate cycle decline.

Swings

o

The Miners formed a swing high today.

gdx

The Intermediate Miner cycle is usually comprised of 3 to 4 daily cycles. The Miners are in their 4th daily cycle. A left translated, failed daily cycle is required to usher in the intermediate cycle decline. Left translated daily cycles for the Miners normally peak on or before day 8.

Tuesday was day 5 for the daily Miner cycle. The swing high today has a good chance of marking the intermediate cycle peak. A close below the upper daily cycle band will signal that the Miners have begun their daily cycle decline. And with a left translated daily cycle formation, it will likely mean that the intermediate cycle decline has commenced.

Once the dollar begins to rally out of its daily cycle low it will likely exacerbate the Miners intermediate decline.

$$$

The dollar did not form a swing today, but the bullish reversal has eased the parameters for forming a swing low. Tuesday was day 15 for the daily dollar cycle. The dollar is still 3 days shy of its normal timing band to print a daily cycle low. But the dollar is very deep in its weekly timing band. At week 36, the dollar may have run out of sellers and therefore we could see a shortened daily cycle. A break above 93.03 forms a swing low. Once a new daily cycle is confirmed, it is likely to also signal that a new yearly cycle for the dollar has started.

The Dollar: This Changes Everything

0

The dollar continued lower today, breaking below the August low. By breaking below the August low, the dollar has formed a failed yearly cycle.

$$$ yearly

The dollar has averaged a 36 month three year cycle for over the past 30 years. May is month 24 for the three year dollar cycle. That leaves about 10 months for the dollar to enter its timing band for its 3 year cycle low. That is enough time for one more yearly cycle.

May is month 9 for the current yearly cycle. I think that the dollar will print a yearly cycle low soon. In the Weekend Report I plan to discuss where the dollar is in its yearly cycle in relation to its 3 year cycle and also its 15 year super cycle. But suffice to say the way is down.

Stocks formed a swing low on Monday.

1 spx swing low

The daily equity cycle peaked on day 47. A swing high formed the following day, sending stocks into their daily cycle decline. Stocks printed its lowest point on Friday, closing below the upper daily cycle band. Friday was day 54, placing stocks deep in their timing band to print a daily cycle low. The swing low today very likely will mark the daily cycle low.

Stocks continue to close above the upper daily cycle band indicating that stocks are in a daily uptrend. Stocks will remain in the daily uptrend until they close below the lower daily cycle band.

The 4/29/16 Weekend Report Preview

The Dollar
$$$http://postimg.org/image/8jp4ugbcv/

The dollar broke below the previous daily cycle low on Friday, forming a failed daily cycle.

The dollar is in a daily down trend that is characterized by peaks below the upper daily cycle band and lows forming below the lower daily cycle band. The dollar will remain in its daily down trend until it can close above the upper daily cycle band. With Friday being only day 13, the dollar still has another 5 days before entering its timing band for a daily cycle low.

Stocks
stockshttp://postimg.org/image/69wujdu9x/

I real time stocks peaked on day 34 and printed its lowest point on day 38. This followed a pattern of 30 – 55 point corrections. Since it was in the timing band for a daily cycle low we labeled day 38 as a daily cycle low .

Now it appears that day 38 was not the daily cycle low. Stocks went on to peak on day 43, formed a swing high and then declined. Stocks closed below the upper daily cycle band on Friday, which is a signal of a daily cycle decline. If day 38 was not the daily cycle low, that would make Friday day 51, placing stocks deep in their timing band for a daily cycle low.

The bullish reversal on Friday has eased the parameters for forming a swing low. A break above 2073.85 forms a daily swing low. That would also have stocks close above the upper daily cycle band, which would indicate a new daily cycle. Stocks are in a daily uptrend. They will remain in a daily uptrend until they close below the lower daily cycle band.

The entire Weekend Report can be found at Likesmoney Subscription Services

The Weekend Report discusses Dollar, Stocks, Gold, Miners, The CRB Index, & Bonds in terms of daily, weekly and yearly cycles.
Also included in the Weekend Report is the Likesmoney CycleTracker

For subscribers click here.

You can email me at likesmoney@gmail.com to receive a sample copy of the Weekend Report

Bullish Reaction to the Dollar

0

The dollar continues its daily down trend.

The dollar has been in a daily down trend characterized by peaks below the upper daily cycle band and lows below the lower daily cycle band.

$$$

The dollar broke below the daily cycle trend line and closed below the lower daily cycle band to signal that the dollar is declining into its daily cycle low. The peak on day 2 has locked in a left translated cycle formation. A break below the previous daily cycle low of 93.62 will form another failed daily cycle and that will extend the intermediate cycle decline.

Both gold and the Miners reacted bullishly to the dollar breaking lower.

gold

The daily gold cycle peaked on day 18 and the printed its lowest point on day 19. Today gold broke convincingly above the declining trend line and closed above the upper daily cycle band to confirm that today was day 4 of a new daily cycle. Gold continues in its daily uptrend and will remain in it until it closes below the lower daily cycle band.

gdx

The Miners daily cycle peaked on day 19 and then printed its lowest point on day 22, placing the Miners in their timing band for daily cycle low. The Miners formed a swing low and broke above the declining trend line on Wednesday. Today the Miners delivered more bullish follow through by breaking to new highs to confirm that today was day 3 of the new daily cycle.

The dollar is now overdue to print its intermediate cycle low. It is very likely that gold is on week 21 for its weekly cycle, placing it in its timing band for an intermediate cycle low. The Miners are on week 14 and this new daily cycle should take the Miners into their timing band for an intermediate cycle low. There is a good chance that once the dollar begins to rally out of its intermediate cycle low, that should send both gold and the Miners into their intermediate cycle declines.

Keeps Going …

0 jpg 2016 04 27 19 56 31

Wednesday was day 14 for the daily equity cycle. Stocks continue to close above the upper daily cycle band indicating that they are in a daily uptrend. They will remain in a daily uptrend until they close below the lower daily cycle band.

20 spx daily

Typically in a daily uptrend the lows form above the lower daily cycle band. But stocks have been so bullish that not only are the peaks above the upper daily cycle band, but the lows have also been above the upper daily cycle band. I do not think that we will see a close below the upper daily cycle band until stocks begin their decline into their daily cycle low.

Meanwhile gold continues its triangle consolidation.

21 gld

The daily gold cycle peaked on day 18 and the printed its lowest point on day 19. We would like to see a break below the lower stem to confirm the daily cycle decline. A clear & convincing break above the upper stem would have us consider day 19 as the daily cycle low.

Oil on the Verge of a Weekly Uptrend

0

Tuesday printed a higher high today, which was day 15 for the daily oil cycle.

00

Since printing its February low, oil has been in a daily uptrend characterized by peaks above the upper daily cycle band and lows forming above the lower daily cycle band. Oil will remain in the daily uptrend until it closes below the lower daily cycle band.

Oil also continues to develop bullishly on the weekly chart.

oil weekly

This is week 11 for the intermediate oil cycle. The previous 2 weeks saw oil testing the declining 50 week MA. This week oil has broke above the 50 week MA. A close above the upper weekly cycle band would indicate that oil is beginning a weekly uptrend. It would also confirm that February hosted the yearly cycle low.

Bearish Inclination

000

Gold continues in its triangle consolidation.

gld

Since emerging from its yearly cycle low in December, gold peaked in March. While gold printed a 28 day daily cycle low on March 28th, gold has not yet formed a failed daily cycle to confirm the intermediate cycle decline.

Gold delivered a false bullish break out on Thursday, day 18. Gold is currently its timing band to print a daily cycle low. Now a break below the lower triangle stem will confirm that gold has begun its daily cycle decline.

But it appears that the Miners may be leading the way lower.

gdx

The Miners printed a bearish reversal last Wednesday, which was day 19. The Miners formed a daily swing high and breached the daily cycle trend line on Friday. Today the Miners delivered more bearish follow through to confirm that the Miners are declining into their daily cycle low. A peak on day 19 assures us of a right translated daily cycle.

Our expectation for both gold and the Miners is to begin their decline into their respective intermediate cycle lows. A failed daily cycle confirms the intermediate cycle decline. Both gold and the Miners appear to be forming right translated daily cycles. Therefore I suspect that both will need to form one more daily cycle. And that next daily cycle will form as left translated cycles and fail, leading to the intermediate cycle decline for both gold and the Miners.

The 4/22/16 Weekend Report Preview

The Dollar
$$$http://postimg.org/image/8jp4ugbcv/

The dollar broke above the declining trend line in a clear and convincing manner last Wednesday to signal a new daily cycle. Then the dollar drifted lower, back testing the recent daily cycle low. A bullish reversal formed on Thursday with more bullish follow through on Friday.

Friday was day 8 for the dollar’s daily cycle. A break above the day 2 high of 95.21 will begin to shift the odds towards a right translated cycle formation. The dollar is in a daily down trend characterized by peaking below the upper daily cycle band and lows forming below the lower daily cycle band. The dollar will remain in the daily down trend until it can close above the upper daily cycle band.

Stocks
stockshttp://postimg.org/image/69wujdu9x/

Stocks printed a higher high on Wednesday, day 9. A daily swing high formed on Thursday and stocks drifted lower on Friday, losing 30 points since the Wednesday peak.

21 spx daily

Since stocks have printed their intermediate cycle low in February stocks has had a series of minor pullbacks, in the range from 30 to 55 points. Stocks continue to close above the upper daily cycle band which indicates that stocks are in a daily uptrend. Stocks should remain in a daily uptrend until they close below the lower daily cycle band.

The entire Weekend Report can be found at Likesmoney Subscription Services

The Weekend Report discusses Dollar, Stocks, Gold, Miners, The CRB Index, & Bonds in terms of daily, weekly and yearly cycles.
Also included in the Weekend Report is the Likesmoney CycleTracker

For subscribers click here.

You can email me at likesmoney@gmail.com to receive a sample copy of the Weekend Report

Dollar Bullish Reversal

00

The dollar has been caught in a daily down trend that has been characterized by peaks occurring below the upper daily cycle band and lows forming below the lower daily cycle band.

$$$$

The dollar broke above the declining trend line in a clear and convincing manner last Wednesday to signal a new daily cycle. However the dollar formed a swing high last Friday and has drifted lower, until today.

$$$ daily

Last week was week 33 for the intermediate dollar cycle. This places the dollar deep in its timing band to print an intermediate cycle low. The developing bullish TSI divergence along with today’s bullish engulfing candle point towards the dollar leaving behind an intermediate cycle low last week. A close above the upper daily cycle band would signal that the dollar has begun a new intermediate cycle.

Meanwhile stocks formed a swing high today.

spx

Today was day 10 for the daily equity cycle. Since stocks have printed their intermediate cycle low in February stocks has had a series of minor pullbacks, in the range from 30 to 55 points. Stocks have been closing above the upper daily cycle band which indicates that stocks are in a daily uptrend. So even through stocks formed a swing high today, stocks should remain in a daily uptrend until they close below the lower daily cycle band.