Steel Support Revisited

On April 5th we took a look at steel

We looked at the long term chart for steel and discussed how the 44 level had been support for steel prior to 2012 but then acted as resistance for the following 5 years.

Steel broke above the 44 resistance level late 2017. Steel back tested the 44 level as it declined into the February DCL. The after breaking out to a new multi year high in February, steel proceeded to back test the 44 level again as steel declined into its yearly cycle low.

So when we last looked at steel on April 5th, it had just confirmed a new daily cycle. Steel has continued to rally and closed above both the 50 day MA and the upper daily cycle band. Closing above the upper daily cycle band ends the daily downtrend and signals the beginning of a new daily uptrend.

In summary:
* Appears to have printed its yearly cycle low.
* Steel has successfully back tested the multi year support/resistance level.
* Steel is beginning a new daily uptrend.

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Transports Starting to Roll

Stocks continued trending higher on Monday and tested the declining 50 day MA.

Stocks need to break convincingly above the 50 day MA and close above the upper daily cycle band for this daily cycle to gain some traction.

The Transports appear to be gaining some traction.

We discussed on Friday how the Transports were getting in gear by confirming their new daily cycle. Well the Transports are now starting to roll.

Monday was day 6 for the daily cycle and the Transports broke convincingly above the declining 50 day MA. They also closed above the upper daily cycle band. Closing above the upper daily cycle and ends the daily downtrend and signals the beginning of a new daily uptrend. And now that the Transports are rolling they should lead the way for stocks to follow.

Gold Bull Update

I want to update my long term projection for Gold

The fate of gold is tied to the dollar.


Historically, gold has traded inversely to the dollar.
The dollar has recently entered a bear market.
Consequently, gold has entered a new bull market.

The dollar cycles through a 15 year super cycle.
That super cycle has peaked and confirmed the 15 year super cycle decline
In the short term I expect some volatility with gold.
But the prognosis for gold long term is very bullish.

In my Special Report – The Gold Bull Update
I will compare gold now to where it was when it began the last gold bull.
I will then relate what that means in terms of the dollar’s 15 year super cycle.

I would like to make available the special report The Gold Bull Update and a complementary 6 week trial subscription to the Likesmoney Premium Site is available for $15.

The complementary subscription will give you full access to the premium site. It includes:

1) The Weekend Report, which is posted usually Saturday mornings. It discusses Dollar, Stocks, Gold, Miners, Oil, & Bonds in terms of daily, weekly and yearly cycles – Which includes the Likesmoney Cycle Tracker & the Likesmoney Trend Tracker.

2) The Mid-Week Update. Posted on Wednesday’s is a review of the daily and weekly charts for the above mentioned asset classes.

3)The Weekend Updates take a look of the daily & weekly charts of the Dax, GYX, NATGAS & XLE.

4) Weekly Update of the Bullish Percentile Bingo

5) Frequent updates of my proprietary FAS Buy/Sell Indicator

The goal of the Weekend Report is to develop an on-going framework of expectations using cycle analysis.

For the Likesmoney special report The Gold Bull Update and 6 week trial subscription offer click here.

Current subscribers can access the report here.

The 4/13/18 Weekend Report Preview

The Dollar
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The dollar formed a swing high and closed below both the 10 day MA and the 50 day MA causing the 10 day MA to turn lower. This signals that the daily cycle is in decline.

A peak on day 7 indicates a left translated daily cycle formation. The dollar did rally Thursday and Friday. But if the dollar is rejected by the 50 day MA and forms a swing high then that will allow us to construct the declining cycle trend line. The dollar is in a daily downtrend & will remain so unless it closes above it the upper daily cycle band.

Stocks
stocks

Stocks continue to emerge from the day 34 DCL.

Stocks are being squeezed by resistance at the declining 50 day MA and support from the rising 10 day MA. The large BOW on Friday favors a bullish resolution. Still, stocks are in a daily downtrend. They will remain in its downtrend unless they close above the upper daily cycle band.

The entire Weekend Report can be found at Likesmoney Subscription Services

The Weekend Report discusses Dollar, Stocks, Gold, Miners, Oil, & Bonds in terms of daily, weekly and yearly cycles.
Also included in the Weekend Report is the Likesmoney CycleTracker

For subscribers click here.

You can email me at likesmoney@gmail.com to receive a sample copy of the Weekend Report

Transports Getting in Gear

The daily equity cycle is beginning to gain traction.

Stocks have formed a swing low, closed above the declining trend line and now have started to turn the 10 day MA higher. All of this confirms that day 34 hosted the DCL

And the Transports are getting in gear.

The Transports printed their lowest point last week on day 38, placing them in their timing band for a daily cycle low. Thursday the Transports finally formed a swing low. They also closed above the declining trend line and are beginning to turn the day 10 MA higher to confirm the new daily cycle.

The next roadblock for both stocks and the Transports we will be to close above the declining 50 day MA.

Oil Confirms Daily Uptrend

Oil formed a daily swing low on Tuesday and closed above the declining trend line to confirm the new daily cycle.

As oil rallied into the previous daily cycle peak it began to close above the upper daily cycle band to establish a new daily uptrend. Oil managed to close above the lower daily cycle band as it printed its day 38 low. By forming a swing low and closing back above the upper daily cycle band oil confirms that it is in a new daily uptrend. And closing above the upper daily cycle band also delivers a cycle band buy signal. Oil will remain in its daily uptrend until it closes below the lower daily cycle band.

Weak Dollar

The dollar formed a swing high on Monday.

Monday was day 8 for the dollar’s daily cycle. The dollar broke lower on Monday, forming a swing high and closed below the 50 day MA. The dollar also closed below the 10 day MA. This signals that the daily cycle is in decline to set up a left translated daily cycle formation. A left translated daily cycle would have bigger implications on the intermediate cycle, which I plan to break down in the Mid-Week Update.

The 4/06/18 Weekend Report Preview

The Dollar
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The dollar continued to close above the 50 day MA this past week.

The dollar formed a swing low the previous Wed & then closed 6 consecutive times above the 50 day MA, turning the 10 day MA higher, to confirm that day 26 hosted the DCL. The dollar is still in a daily downtrend. A close above the upper daily cycle band will end the daily downtrend and begin a new daily uptrend.

Stocks
stocks

Stocks printed their lowest point on Monday day 34, following the day 21 peak. That places stocks in their timing band for a daily cycle low. Thursday’s close above the declining trend line confirms a new daily cycle.

Stocks closed lower on Friday, dropping over 2% to retest the 200 day MA. At this point while we could still get more volatility, I do not expect stocks to break below the day 34 low therefore we will label day 34 as the DCL. Stocks are in a daily downtrend. They will remain in its downtrend unless they close above the upper daily cycle band.

I suspect that the rally out of the day 34 low will gain traction once oil prints its impending daily cycle low. (I cover oil’s daily, weekly, and yearly cycles in the Weekend Report)

The entire Weekend Report can be found at Likesmoney Subscription Services

The Weekend Report discusses Dollar, Stocks, Gold, Miners, Oil, & Bonds in terms of daily, weekly and yearly cycles.
Also included in the Weekend Report is the Likesmoney CycleTracker

For subscribers click here.

You can email me at likesmoney@gmail.com to receive a sample copy of the Weekend Report

Steel Support

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Stocks delivered bullish follow through on Thursday to provide additional confirmation of the new daily cycle.

Steel confirmed a new daily cycle on Thursday

I want to start off by looking at the longer term picture for Steel. The longer term picture shows that 44 level was a support back in 2011. Steel then lost that support late 2011. That 44 resistance level turned into a multi year resistance level until late 2017.

Steel broke above the multi year resistance level late 2017. And now after rallying for several months steel appears to be backtesting that resistance-turned-support level.

On to the daily chart …

Steel printed its lowest point ahead of the general market last Wednesday. That was day 32, placing steel deep in its timing band for a daily cycle low. A swing low did form last Thursday to signal a new daily cycle. However a break above the declining trend line was needed to confirm the new daily cycle — which occurred today.

So after breaking out above a multi year resistance level steel appears to have successfully backtested the breakout and is still early in a new daily cycle.

The 4/05/18 Morning Report

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Stocks formed a swing low and closed above the 10 day MA to signal that Wed was day 1 for the new daily cycle.

We have been looking for a break below the previous daily cycle low during this daily cycle decline. However, Wednesday’s bullish reversal along with closing above the declining 10 day MA convinces me that Monday hosted the DCL. A break of the declining trend line will confirm the new daily cycle.