The 9/26/20 Weekend Report Preview

The Dollar

 
The dollar printed a new high on Friday, day 17.
 

The new high on day 17 assures us of a right translated daily cycle formation. Which aligns with the dollar being in a daily uptrend. The dollar will remain in its daily uptrend unless it closes below the lower daily cycle band.

Stocks

Stocks formed a swing low on Friday.

Stocks printed their lowest point on Thursday, placing them very deep in their timing band for a DCL. Friday’s swing low signals a new daily cycle. Stocks will need to close above the declining trend line to confirm the new daily cycle. There is a bearish RSI pattern developing that is consistent with the declining phase of the intermediate cycle. That aligns with stocks being in a daily downtrend. Stocks will remain in their daily downtrend until they can close back above the upper daily cycle band.

The entire Weekend Report can be found at Likesmoney Subscription Services

The Weekend Report discusses Dollar, Stocks, Gold, Miners, Oil, & Bonds in terms of daily, weekly and yearly cycles.
Also included in the Weekend Report is the Likesmoney CycleTracker

For subscribers click here.

You can email me at likesmoney@gmail.com to receive a sample copy of the Weekend Report

Possible Miner Daily Cycle Low

The Miners broke below the previous daily cycle low on Wednesday to form a failed daily cycle and confirm the intermediate cycle decline.

Wednesday’s Mid-Week Update we discussed that breaking below the previous daily cycle low should trigger a bloodbath phase to the daily cycle decline that can last 5 to 7 days. That may not happen.

The Miners printed a bullish candle on Thursday that nearly recovered Wednesday’s sell-off. Thursday’s bullish candle eases the parameters for forming a swing low. A break above 38.91 forms a daily swing low. With the Miners in their timing band for a DCL, a swing low and close back in the consolidation box would signal a new daily cycle.

Still On The Table

Stocks formed a swing low on Tuesday.

Stocks printed their lowest point on Monday, day 68, placing them very late in their timing band for a DCL. Tuesday’s swing low signals a new daily cycle. A break above the declining trend line will confirm the new daily cycle.

Stocks are on week 26, placing them in their timing band for an intermediate cycle low. While most ICL’s have a failed daily cycle en route to printing the ICL, on a rare occasion some don’t. And this may be one of those times that they don’t. If stocks can close back above the upper daily cycle band that would end the daily downtrend and begin a new daily uptrend. It will also indicate that the intermediate cycle low has been left behind.

Which brings us back to the megaphone topping pattern we discussed on September 14th.

Stocks appear to have delivered a classic false breakout from this megaphone topping pattern. With stocks in their timing band for an intermediate cycle decline – this could trigger the intermediate cycle decline and a revision to the mean. But with the historic amount of liquidity the Fed has been providing to the market — this could be all the daily cycle decline we get.

So if day 68 is the DCL and stocks manage to break above the previous daily cycle high that would mean that a bubble scenario is still on the table.

Intermediate Cycle Decline

Stocks continued lower on Monday.

Stocks undercut the day 62 low on Friday to extend its daily cycle decline. Stocks delivered bearish follow through on Monday by closing below the lower daily cycle band. Closing below the lower daily cycle band ends the daily uptrend and begins a daily downtrend. It also signals the intermediate cycle decline.

This is week 26 for the intermediate equity cycle. That places stocks deep in their timing band for an intermediate cycle low. Stocks are also very deep in its timing band for a daily cycle low. So once stocks print their DCL, it has good odds of also marking the ICL. A swing low and close back above the declining trend line will signal the daily cycle low.

The 9/19/20 Weekend Report Preview

The Dollar

 
The dollar peaked on day 5, setting up a left translated daily cycle formation.
 

The dollar was rejected by the declining 50 day MA on Thursday and closed lower on Friday to signal the daily cycle decline. This appeared to be the first daily cycle to a new intermediate cycle. But a close below the lower daily cycle band will indicate a continuation of the intermediate cycle decline. Currently, the dollar is in a daily downtrend. It will remain in its daily downtrend unless it can close back above the upper daily cycle band.

Stocks

Stocks undercut the day 62 low to extend its daily cycle decline.

Stocks are very deep in their timing band for a DCL. Undercutting the day 62 low and closing below the 50 day MA on Friday should send everybody to the same side of the boat. However, the bullish divergence on the oscillators indicate a pending DCL. A swing low and close above the declining trend line will confirm the new daily cycle. A break above 3362.27 will form a swing low.. Stocks are currently in a daily uptrend. If a swing low forms above the lower daily cycle band then stocks will remain in their daily uptrend and trigger a cycle band buy signal.

The entire Weekend Report can be found at Likesmoney Subscription Services

The Weekend Report discusses Dollar, Stocks, Gold, Miners, Oil, & Bonds in terms of daily, weekly and yearly cycles.
Also included in the Weekend Report is the Likesmoney CycleTracker

For subscribers click here.

You can email me at likesmoney@gmail.com to receive a sample copy of the Weekend Report

Stocks Update

Stocks formed a swing high on Thursday.

Stocks found support at the 50 day MA on day 62. They formed a swing low and delivered bullish follow through to look, in real time, that stocks were emerging from an extended 62 day daily cycle low. But stocks were rejected by the 10 day MA on Wednesday and formed a swing high on Thursday. Since stocks did not close above the 10 day MA and turn it higher to confirm day 62 as the DCL, Thursday’s swing high signals that stocks are extending their daily cycle decline. That makes Thursday — day 66. Stocks should break below the day 62 low of 3310.47 in order to complete their daily cycle decline. And since stocks formed a swing high, that allows us to reconstruct the declining trend line to the dashed trend line. A swing low and a close above the declining (dashed) trend line will signal the new daily cycle.

Bullish Follow Through

Stocks delivered bullish follow through on Tuesday.

Stocks formed a swing low and closed above the declining trend line on Monday to signal the new daily cycle. On Tuesday stocks delivered bullish follow through by closing higher. However, stocks were halted by resistance at the 10 day MA. Stocks should break above the 10 day MA and turn it higher as it rallies out of its daily cycle low. Stocks are in a daily uptrend and will remain so unless they close below the lower daily cycle band.

Hoping I’m Wrong …

Stocks formed a swing low off of support from the 50 day MA and closed above the declining trend line to signal a new daily cycle.

In the Weekend Report we noted that stocks formed a weekly swing high and are in their timing band for an intermediate cycle low. Which gives us the cyclical expectation for this new daily cycle to left translate and fail in order to usher in the intermediate cycle decline.

Stocks appear to have delivered a classic false breakout from this megaphone topping pattern. Stocks formed a swing high and closed below the upper stem of the megaphone to signal the daily cycle decline. With stocks in their timing band for an intermediate cycle decline – this could trigger the intermediate cycle decline and a revision to the mean.

If stocks have begun the intermediate cycle decline then resistance from the upper stem of the megaphone pattern should reject stocks to send them into the intermediate cycle decline.

Here is why I am hoping that I am wrong. If stocks can recover the upper stem of the megaphone and break above the day 56 high – then I would submit that the flood of liquidity would be overwhelming our timing bands and that stocks are entering a bubble phase.

The 9/12/20 Weekend Report Preview

The Dollar

 
The dollar closed above the declining trend line on Tuesday to signal that day 18 hosted the DCL
 

The dollar got a bit stretched above the 10 day MA on Wednesday. It formed a bullish reversal off of the 10 day MA on Thursday and closed higher on Friday. Currently, the dollar is in a daily downtrend. But a close above the upper daily cycle band will end the daily downtrend and begin a new daily uptrend.
 

Stocks

We have been watching this megaphone topping pattern.

Stocks appear to have delivered a classic false breakout. Stocks formed a swing high and closed below upper stem of the megaphone to signal the daily cycle decline. With stocks in their timing band for an intermediate cycle decline – this could trigger the intermediate cycle decline and a revision to the mean.

However if stocks can recover the upper stem of the megaphone and break above the day 56 high – then I would submit that the flood of liquidity would be overwhelming our timing bands and that stocks are entering a bubble phase.

The entire Weekend Report can be found at Likesmoney Subscription Services

The Weekend Report discusses Dollar, Stocks, Gold, Miners, Oil, & Bonds in terms of daily, weekly and yearly cycles.
Also included in the Weekend Report is the Likesmoney CycleTracker

For subscribers click here.

You can email me at likesmoney@gmail.com to receive a sample copy of the Weekend Report

Mixed Signals

Stocks are giving us mixed signals.

The daily chart shows us that stocks are very deep in its timing band for a daily cycle low. Stocks have been in a daily uptrend that has been characterized by highs forming above the upper daily cycle band and lows forming above the lower daily cycle band. Stocks formed a swing low above support from the 50 day MA to signal a new daily cycle. A close above the 10 may MA will have us label day 59 as the DCL.

But stocks are telling us something different on the weekly chart.

Stocks formed a weekly swing high this week. This is week 24, placing stocks in their timing band for an intermediate cycle low. A close below the 10 week MA will signal the intermediate cycle decline. So while the short term daily chart favors price rallying out of a DCL, the longer term weekly chart indicates 3 – 7 weeks of stocks declining into an intermediate cycle low.