Shadow of the Bear

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The Shadow of the Bear is spreading around the world.

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France printed a failed daily cycle today.

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Germany delivered bearish follow through to its failed cycle.

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Spain also delivered a failed daily cycle …

nasdaq

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Both the Nasdaq and the Russell also confirmed failed daily cycles today.

Can the S&P be far behind?

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Stocks closed above the lower daily cycle band on day 8 to indicate a new daily cycle. Stocks peaked on day 9 then formed a swing high on day 10. The day 10 close below the lower daily cycle band signaled that the daily cycle decline had begun. Monday was day 14 for the daily equity cycle and stocks continued lower. Stocks need another 3 weeks before they enter their timing band for a daily cycle low. So stocks can trend lower for the next 16 to 31 days before printing a daily cycle low.

Change of Nature

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The Big Picture is beginning to change for Gold.

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Since peaking in 2011, gold has been in the grip of a bear market. But the rally out of the recent yearly cycle low has gold breaking above the bear market trend line.

And I believe that that dollar is helping to drive this change.

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The dollar dropped over 2.6% this week giving up all of the gains since early November leaving no doubt that the dollar is declining into an intermediate cycle low. And I believe that there are even bigger implications at play. I discuss this in the Special Report on the Status of the Dollar.

This week I am offering a special 6 week trial membership along with the bonus report: The Status of the Dollar for $25. So you will receive 6 weeks of Likesmoney Subscribers access along with the Special Report: Status of the Dollar which include:
* The Weekend Report
* The Mid-Week Update
and I also post what I call my Weekend Updates.
The Weekend Updates cover:
* The FAS Buy/Sell Indicator
* NATGAS
* The Bullish Percentage BINGO

So please click here if you are interested in the 6 week trial subscription and Special Report: The Status of the Dollar.

The 2/05/16 Weekend Report

The Dollar
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The dollar did close above the upper daily cycle band following the day 12 low, which signals a new daily cycle. A cycle peak on day 1 and an early 12 day daily cycle low are 2 low probability events which make it likely that Friday was day 18 for the dollar’s daily cycle.

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Often times the dollar turns on or around a Jobs Friday. The dollar did print a bullish reversal on Friday that regained the 200 MA. An 18 count would place the dollar in its timing band to print a daily cycle low. A swing low and a close above the lower daily cycle band will signal a new daily cycle. A break above 97.31 forms a daily swing low.

This was a critical week for the dollar. This week’s decline has set things in motion that I discuss in my special report: The Status of the Dollar. In this report we will look at the dollar’s current 3 year cycle and where it is in the 15 year super cycle.

Stocks
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Stocks printed their lowest point in January on day 43. Stocks closed above the lower daily cycle band on January 29th to indicate that day 43 marked the daily cycle low.

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The bullish reversal Wednesday allowed us to draw a trend line. Stocks breached that trend line on Friday. This indicates that stocks have entered their daily cycle decline. The peak on day 9 locks in a left translated cycle formation. Stocks have been caught in a daily down trend, characterized by peaks below the upper daily cycle band and troughs below the lower daily cycle band. Stocks will remain in a daily down trend until it can close above the upper daily cycle band.

This week I am offering a special 6 week trial membership along with the bonus report: The Status of the Dollar for $25. So you will receive 6 weeks of Likesmoney Subscribers access along with the Special Report: Status of the Dollar which include:
* The Weekend Report
* The Mid-Week Update
and I also post what I call my Weekend Updates.
The Weekend Updates cover:
* The FAS Buy/Sell Indicator
* NATGAS
* The Bullish Percentage BINGO

So please click here if you are interested in the 6 week trial subscription and Special Report: The Status of the Dollar.

Dollar Game Changer

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The Miners were up big today!

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The Miners gained over 7% on the day.

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Oil was up big too, gaining over 10% for the day.
And I think that this is attributable to the big drop in the dollar.

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The today’s drop saw the dollar close below the December low. So while the dollar’s daily count is unclear, what is clear is that today’s drop produced a failed daily cycle and possibly a failed intermediate cycle.

And I believe that there are even bigger implications because of the beat down the dollar took today, which I was hinting at that last week. I believe that today was a game changer for the dollar. I am putting the finishing touches on a special report on the Status of the Dollar, that will cover this. It looks like I will be able to post that this weekend, following the Weekend Report.

Oil Drops

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Oil dropped over 5 % on Tuesday.

oil

Oil had closed above the lower daily cycle band on day 6 to signal a new daily cycle. Oil lost the lower daily cycle band on Monday and today oil delivered bearish follow through by dropping 5.14% on the day and losing the 10 day MA. Oil appears to be forming a left translated daily cycle. A break below 27.56 will form a failed daily cycle.

The timing band for Oil’s daily cycle low runs from 30 to 50 days. With Tuesday being day 9, that leaves another 4 to 8 weeks for to find its daily cycle low.

Dollar Perspective

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The currency wars are making it challenging to keep the daily cycle count straight. Friday’s surprise move by Japan caused the dollar to rally over 1%. The dollar formed a swing low and closed above the upper daily cycle band on Friday to make it appear that an early 12 day, daily cycle low formed.

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However’s today’s drop keeps alive the possibility that Friday was not day 1, but that the dollar is still declining into its daily cycle low.

At times like this it is sometimes helpful to back things out to the weekly chart for a better perspective.

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The dollar closed above the upper weekly cycle band on week 6 which indicates that week 15 hosted an intermediate cycle low. A close below the blue weekly trend line will signal that the dollar has begun its intermediate cycle decline.

The 1/29/16 Weekend Report Preview

The Dollar
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“The Bank of Japan unexpectedly cut a benchmark interest rate below zero on Friday, stunning investors with another bold move to stimulate the economy as volatile markets and slowing global growth threaten its efforts to overcome deflation.”
(Article can be found here.)

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The dollar’s daily cycle peaked on day 7, formed a swing high and delivered a trend line break to signal the daily cycle decline. The move by Japan caused the dollar to rally over 1% on Friday. This appears to have forced an early daily cycle low to form since the dollar ended up closing above the upper daily cycle band.

Stocks
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Stocks confirmed a new daily cycle on Friday

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Stocks printed their lowest point on day 43 after a 3 week decline. That placed stocks deep in the daily cycle timing band. The swing low and accelerated declining trend line break signaled a new daily cycle. Friday’s close above the lower daily cycle band delivers final confirmation on a new daily cycle.

The entire Weekend Report can be found at Likesmoney Subscription Services

The Weekend Report discusses Dollar, Stocks, Gold, Miners, The CRB Index, & Bonds in terms of daily, weekly and yearly cycles.
Also included in the Weekend Report is the Likesmoney CycleTracker

For subscribers click here.

You can email me at likesmoney@gmail.com to receive a sample copy of the Weekend Report

NATGAS Heating Up

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NATGAS confirmed a new daily cycle today.

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The NATGAS daily cycle recently peaked on day 13, formed a swing high and declined into its daily cycle low. NATGAS printed a higher low on day 21, forming a right translated daily cycle.

NATGAS consolidated the daily cycle decline for 4 days. Today NATGAS broke higher, forming a clear and convincing swing low and closing above the lower daily cycle band to confirm Thursday as day 5 of the new daily cycle. Our cyclical expectation is to see NATGAS go on to print a higher daily cycle high.

Oil also confirmed a new daily cycle today.

oil

Oil printed its lowest point on 1/20, which was day 24. That placed oil a bit short of its normal timing band for a daily cycle low. Oil did formed a swing low and delivered a declining trend line break. Today we saw oil close above the lower daily cycle band to confirm that day 24 hosted the daily cycle low, making today day 6 of a new daily cycle.

I am not surprised to see these to commodity sectors rally on the bearish break of the dollar.

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As we discussed this morning, the dollar’s daily cycle peaked on day 7. A swing high formed on Wednesday, day 11 that also breached the daily cycle trend line. Today the dollar delivered more bearish follow through by closing below the daily cycle trend line. Thursday was day 12 for the dollar’s daily cycle. The dollar has begun its daily cycle decline. Since the dollar is 6 days shy of its timing band for a daily cycle low, we can expect the dollar to trend lower for the next 1 – 2 weeks before printing its daily cycle low.

Something to keep in mind is the jobs number is due out next Friday. So we just may see the dollars ‘s daily cycle decline stretch into next Friday.

The 1/28/16 Morning Report

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The dollar is delivering signals that the daily cycle decline has begun.

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The dollar’s daily cycle peaked on day 7. A swing high formed on Wednesday, day 11 that also breached the daily cycle trend line. This was accompanied by a TSI Zero Line Crossover all of which signals that the daily cycle decline has begun. A peak on day 7 signals a left translated cycle formation. A left translated daily cycle typically results in a cycle failure that begins the intermediate cycle decline.

But as we discussed on Tuesday, I think something bigger is developing here for the dollar. I think that a failed daily cycle may also lead to the yearly cycle decline and the 3 year cycle decline. All of which I plan on covering in this week’s Weekend Report.

And all of this has not been lost on gold …

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Gold printed another higher high on Wednesday, which was day 8. Gold is beginning to close above the upper daily cycle band indicating a daily uptrend. And with the dollar entering its daily cycle decline that should support gold going higher to form a right translated daily cycle.

Dollar Suspicion

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The energy sector printed a bullish reversal last week.

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Last week was week 22 for the energy sector’s intermediate cycle. That places the energy sector in its timing band for print an intermediate cycle low. A new daily cycle has started and this may also signal a new intermediate cycle. A weekly swing low is required to mark the intermediate cycle low. A break above 56.12 will form a weekly swing low. Then a close above the lower weekly cycle band will indicate a new intermediate cycle. The bullish divergence developing on the True Strength Indicator signals that not only is an intermediate low is imminent, but also a yearly cycle low.

gdx weekly

The Miners have formed a weekly swing low. Last week was week 19 for the intermediate Miner cycle. The Miners have begun a new daily cycle and the weekly swing low signals that a new intermediate cycle has also begun. Once again there is a bullish divergence on the True Strength Indicator that signals not only has an intermediate low been left behind, but also a yearly cycle low.

And the reason for this I suspect is the dollar.

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The dollar has been in a mini uptrend since emerging from the early December cycle low. The dollar printed an exhaustion candle on day 7 and appears to be rolling over. A bearish crossover has formed on the True Strength Indicator. A break below 98.99 will form a swing high. Then a break of the daily cycle trend line will confirm the daily cycle decline. A peak on day 7 has goods odds for a left translated cycle formation, which usually results in a failed daily cycle. A failed daily cycle will send the dollar into its intermediate cycle decline.

But I think something bigger is developing here for the dollar. I think that a failed daily cycle may also lead to the yearly cycle decline and the 3 year cycle decline. All of which I plan on covering in this week’s Weekend Report.