Domino Effect …

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The dollar printed its yearly and three year cycle low last May. The rally out of that low saw the dollar break above the 30 plus year declining trend line.

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The dollar is at a critical juncture. Let’s take a closer look.

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The dollar broke above the declining 30 year trend line in March. The dollar could be forming a monthly bull flag, gathering up energy to break higher. But what is developing in the commodity sector suggests a top is forming for the dollar. If the dollar loses this 30 year trend line that will make for a failed break out. It would not only mark the three year cycle peak, but also the 15 year super cycle peak. Which would have a domino effect on commodities and precious metals.

This is developed further in the Weekend Report.
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The 8/30/15 Weekend Report

The Dollar
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The dollar broke below the previous intermediate low on Monday forming a failed intermediate cycle.

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The dollar began to rally on Tuesday. It regained the 200 day MA and formed a swing low on Wednesday. The dollar closed above the lower daily cycle band on Thursday to confirm a new daily cycle. The dollar closed higher on Friday, providing more bullish follow through.

Friday was day 4 and the dollar closed just below the 50 day MA. We will see on the weekly chart (discussed in the Weekend Report) that the dollar just printed week 15 for the intermediate cycle, which is still shy of the timing band for an intermediate cycle low. There is still time for the dollar to print one more failed daily cycle. But the bullish weekly reversal on the weekly chart suggests that an early intermediate low has printed. We will need to watch the 50 day MA next week. Rejection by the 50 day MA will likely mean that the dollar will print one more failed daily cycle before printing the intermediate low.

Stocks
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Stocks dropped over 126 points between Monday & Tuesday.

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However stocks bounced back on Wednesday and formed a daily swing low on Thursday. Monday, day 34, was the lowest point since the day 9 peak. Stocks closed out the week on Friday right up against the declining trend line. At day 34, stocks are in their timing band to print a daily cycle low. A break above the declining trend line will signal a new daily cycle. I would like to see a close above the lower cycle band (approx 2016) for further confirmation.

The entire Weekend Report can be found at Likesmoney Subscription Services

The Weekend Report discusses Dollar, Stocks, Gold, Miners, The CRB Index, & Bonds in terms of daily, weekly and yearly cycles.
Also included in the Weekend Report is the Likesmoney CycleTracker

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Black Gold

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In last night’s subscriber’s Mid-Week Update we took a look at oil.

We discussed how Oil was deep in its timing band to print a daily cycle low. And that a break above 40.47 forms a swing low.

Well, today oil formed a Clear and Convincing Swing Low.

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The daily oil cycle peaked back on June 10 and has declined steadily since. Oil printed its lowest point on Monday. At day 61, oil is very deep in its timing band it print a daily cycle low. The clear and convincing swing low broke above the longer term declining cycle trend line (not shown) which confirms a new daily cycle. But I believe that oil is in store for a larger degree rally.

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Oil’s intermediate cycle peaked back on week 7. Oil broke below the lower cycle band back on week 15 which signaled the intermediate cycle decline. This daily cycle stretched so long that it is infringing on the timing band for an intermediate cycle low. Oil is forming a weekly bullish reversal which will ease the parameters to form a weekly swing low. So a weekly swing low and declining weekly trend line will confirm the a intermediate cycle.

Stocks Rebound

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Stocks printed their lowest point on Monday, day 34. That places stocks in their timing band to print a daily cycle low. We still need a break above Monday’s high of 1965.15 to form a swing low. But with stocks being up almost 4 % today, a daily cycle low may have just been left behind. And I think that once a new daily cycle is confirmed,it will also signal a new intermediate cycle.

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What bothers me about labeling week 38 as a right translated intermediate cycle low is that stocks never broke out to a higher high. I think that the intermediate cycle continued to stretch, making this — week 45. The earlist a weekly swing low can form will be next week. But I believe that a weekly swing low forms, it will signal a new intermediate cycle.

And the next chart helps support this scenario.

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Stocks making new 52 week lows has spiked this week. It has spike to a level that has occurred only a handful of times over the past 10 years. And each one of those times signaled a new intermediate cycle …

Be Vewy Vewy Quiet — I’m Hunting Gold’s Daily Cycle Low

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Gold printed a new daily cycle high on Monday, which was day 21.

The new high that gold printed on Monday, day 21, locks in a right translated formation to this daily cycle. However, 21 days places gold in its timing band to seek out a daily cycle low. And …

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… evidence is beginning to pile up that gold has started its daily cycle decline.

While Monday did print a higher high, gold closed lower on the day. Tuesday saw gold form a daily swing high. This is accompanied with a bearish crossover on the True Strength Indicator. Gold also closed below the upper daily cycle band, which is another signal that gold have begun its daily cycle decline. Now we await for a break of the daily cycle trend line to provide final confirmation of gold’s daily cycle decline. And once gold breaks below the daily cycle trend line, we can begun to hunt for the daily cycle low.

Failed Intermediate Cycle

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The dollar’s daily cycle peaked on day 9, formed a swing high and then broke below the previous daily cycle low on day 12 forming a failed daily cycle. After a brief counter trend rally, the dollar broke lower. Monday, day 20, saw the dollar continue lower, breaking below the previous weekly low and forming a failed intermediate cycle.

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The dollar did manage to close above the weekly support and the 50 day MA today. With the daily cycle on day 20, it is possible that the dollar form a daily cycle low. However there are bigger implications for a failed weekly dollar cycle. That is something that I discussed in the Weekend Report.

To help you stay on top of the events that are unfolding, I am offering a special 6 week trial subscription for $15. Click here for the trial subscription.

The Weekend Report discusses Dollar, Stocks, Gold, Miners, The CRB Index, & Bonds in terms of daily, weekly and yearly cycles.
Also included in the Weekend Report is the Likesmoney CycleTracker

The 8/21/15 Weekend Report Preview

The Dollar
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The dollar formed a failed daily cycle the previous week. After a brief counter trend rally this week the dollar was rejected by the 10 day MA and continued lower.

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Friday was day 19 for the daily dollar cycle. At 19 days, the dollar has entered its timing band for a daily cycle low. The previous 3 daily cycles ran from 24 days to 34 days. There are some long term things taking shape with the dollar that has only happened twice over the past 35 years. This is something that we will look at in the Weekend Report.

Stocks
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An early daily cycle low appeared to have formed on day 26. But stocks could not break convincingly above the declining trend line. And once the selling started on Tuesday, it accelerated into Friday.

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Stocks broke below the 200 MA on day 26, but managed to recover. That positive close on day 26 makes me think that the Fed tried to intervene and force an early daily cycle low. But with a day 9 peak, this daily cycle had locked in a left translated nature. Now at day 33 stocks are in their timing band to print a daily cycle low. I do not think that the selling has exhausted itself and I think that we need to see a narrow range day that prints a lower low. That would ease the parameters for forming a daily cycle low. However I believe that the Fed realizes the danger the stock market is in. I cannot imagine that they will let the market continue lower without trying to intervene. Perhaps that explains the huge BOW number that printed on Friday.

If the Fed cannot halt the decline next week, I think that the October low is in jeopardy. A break below that would form a failed yearly cycle. I discuss that at length in the Weekend Report.

To help you stay on top of the events that are unfolding, I am offering a special 6 week trial subscription for $15. Click here for the trial subscription.

The Weekend Report discusses Dollar, Stocks, Gold, Miners, The CRB Index, & Bonds in terms of daily, weekly and yearly cycles.
Also included in the Weekend Report is the Likesmoney CycleTracker

For subscribers click here.

This Changes Everything

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Stocks dropped over 2% today, breaking below the previous daily cycle low and producing a failed daily cycle.

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Yesterday’s close above the 200 MA kept alive the possibility of an early daily cycle low forming on August 12th. However, stocks dropped over 2% today. Today’s drop broke below the August 12th low, making this the lowest point since the day 9 peak. Stocks also broke below the previous daily cycle low forming a failed daily cycle and clarifies the daily cycle count at day 32.

Stocks also formed a failed intermediate cycle today, which changes everything. I look at this more closely in a Special Thursday Night Report for subscribers. Tonight we will look at daily and weekly cycles for the Dollar, Stocks, Gold, Miners, Index, & Bonds.

The entire Special Thursday Night Report can be found at Likesmoney Subscription Services

I also post a Weekend Report usually on Sunday mornings. The Weekend Report discusses Dollar, Stocks, Gold, Miners, The CRB Index, & Bonds in terms of daily, weekly and yearly cycles.
Also included in the Weekend Report is the Likesmoney CycleTracker

For subscribers click here.

Attempted Recovery

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Last Wednesday, day 26, stocks broke below the 200 MA and plunged over 25 points. Stocks looked to be headed for a failed daily cycle. However (through Fed intervention) stocks recovered the 200 MA and closed positive for the day.

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Stocks once again lost the 200 MA today only to recover it by the end of the day. It is still unclear if today was day 31 or day 5 of a new daily cycle. Recovering the 200 MA keeps alive the possibility that today is day 5 of a new daily cycle. We will need to see a clear and convincing close above the declining trend line for confirmation of a new daily cycle.

However stocks are not out of the woods. If they continue lower, that could set the stage for a failed intermediate cycle. Which is something that I look at in the Mid-Week Update.

If you are interested in more, I post a Mid-Week Update that looks at the daily and weekly cycles for the Dollar, Stocks, Gold, Miners, The CRB Index, & Bonds.

The entire Mid-Week Report can be found at Likesmoney Subscription Services

Then I post a Weekend Report usually on Sunday mornings. The Weekend Report discusses Dollar, Stocks, Gold, Miners, The CRB Index, & Bonds in terms of daily, weekly and yearly cycles.
Also included in the Weekend Report is the Likesmoney CycleTracker

For subscribers click here.

Getting in Sync

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Gold’s daily cycle sits at day 17. The Miners sit at day 9. Gold is one day shy of entering its timing band for a daily cycle low while the Miners need another 9 days to enter its timing band.

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The Miners peaked on day 5 with today being day 9, so the Miners and gold are out of sync. But if gold can extend its daily cycle past 24 days, that will allow the Miners to enter their timing band for a daily cycle low.

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Gold currently sports a day 14 peak. A swing high has formed and gold printed its lowest point today, finding support at the day 10 MA. Tuesday was day 17 for gold’s daily cycle. This places gold one day shy of its timing band for a daily cycle low. Since 6 of the previous 7 daily cycles ran 24 days or longer there is a good chance that this daily cycle will follow suit. And it will also give the Miners to sync up.

And gold is at an important juncture. The next couple of days will likely determine nature of this daily cycle. If gold loses the 10 day MA, then the odds shift to this daily cycle forming as a left translated cycle. But if gold breaks above the mini trend line and breaks to a new high, then gold will form a half cycle low and it will lock in a right translated nature to this daily cycle.