The 8/26/16 Weekend Report Preview

The Dollar
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The dollar broke above the declining trend line and closed convincingly above the lower daily cycle band to confirm that day 39 hosted the daily cycle low.

If the dollar is still in its intermediate decline then current daily cycle rally should be halted by the 200 day MA. The dollar is currently in a daily downtrend. It will remain in the downtrend until it closes above the upper daily cycle band.

Stocks
stocks

Stocks printed their lowest point on Friday following the day 34 peak. Friday was day 43 for the daily equity cycle, which places stocks deep in their timing band to form a daily cycle low.

Stocks have been consolidating for over the past month. With stocks in their timing band for a daily cycle low a likely scenario would be a false break down out of consolidation. Followed by a rally into the new daily cycle. Keep in mind that stocks continue to be in a daily uptrend. They should remain in their daily uptrend unless they close below the lower daily cycle band.

The entire Weekend Report can be found at Likesmoney Subscription Services

The Weekend Report discusses Dollar, Stocks, Gold, Miners, Oil, & Bonds in terms of daily, weekly and yearly cycles.
Also included in the Weekend Report is the Likesmoney CycleTracker

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Possible Miner Low

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The Miners possibly printed their daily cycle low on Thursday.

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The Miners daily cycles have run 16, 22, 22, 19, and 22 days respectively since emerging from its bear market low in January. Thursday was day 23 for the daily Miner cycle, which places the Miners in their timing band for a daily cycle low. A swing low has good odds of forming the daily cycle low. A break above 27.86 will form a swing low.

Gold is also in its timing band for a daily cycle low.

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While the Miners have already formed a failed daily cycle, gold has not. As long as gold forms its daily cycle low above 1310.70 it will avoid forming a failed daily cycle. Since gold drives the precious metals market, if gold breaks higher it should drag the Miners right along with it. Thursday was day 25 for the daily gold cycle. A swing low and a break above the declining trend line will confirm a new daily cycle. And a close above the upper daily cycle band will signal a continuation of gold’s daily uptrend.

Miner Concerns

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In Monday’s report we discussed how the Miners are in a daily uptrend and a daily swing low would allow them to remain in their daily uptrend. Well, the Miners closed lower on Tuesday which gives me some minor concerns.

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Tuesday was day 21 for the daily Miner cycle. Tuesday’s drop caused the Miners to close below the 50 day MA. They also closed below the lower daily cycle band which signals an end of the daily uptrend. If the Miners break below the previous daily cycle low of 27.45 that would form a failed daily cycle.

So unless the Miners reverse immediately they are at risk of this developing into a daily downtrend. There are also concerns developing on the weekly chart.

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The Miners did form a weekly swing high last week. This week they broke below the intermediate cycle trend line which signals an intermediate cycle decline. If the Miners close out the week below the upper weekly cycle band that would provide more confirmation of an intermediate cycle decline. This is week 13 for the intermediate Miner cycle. Assuming that the Miners will print a daily cycle low this week, that still allows enough time for one more daily cycle to bring the weekly cycle into its timing band for an intermediate cycle low. So potentially we could see the next daily cycle develop as a left translated, failed daily cycle that would lead into an intermediate cycle decline.

Miner Uptrend

0 miner surprise

The Miners have been in a daily uptrend since emerging from its yearly cycle low.

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The Miner uptrend is characterized by daily cycles that peak above the upper daily cycle band wth daily cycle lows forming above the lower daily cycle band. Setting aside the 1st daily cycle following the yearly cycle low, the remaining daily cycles averaged 20 days from trough to trough.

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The Miners printed its lowest point on Monday, following the day 14 peak. Monday was day 20 which places the Miners in their timing band to print a daily cycle low. Monday’s narrow range day has eased the parameters for forming a daily swing low. A break above 29.59 will form a daily cycle low. Then a break above the declining trend line will confirm a new daily cycle.

If Monday ends up being the daily cycle low, that would mean that the Miners printed their DCL above the lower daily cycle band, indicating that the Miners remain in their daily uptrend. The Miners will continue in their daily uptrend unless they close below the lower daily cycle band.

The 8/19/16 Weekend Report Preview

The Dollar
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While day 27 is in the timing band for a daily cycle low, the lack declining trend line break makes it likely that the dollar is in an extended daily cycle decline with Thursday being day 39.

The dollar has established a daily downtrend. But Friday’s bullish harami signals a potential change. A break above 94.63 will form a daily swing low. Then a break of the declining trend line will confirm a new daily cycle.

Stocks
stocks

Friday was day 38 for the daily equity cycle, placing stocks late in their timing band to seek out a daily cycle low. Stocks have printed several swing highs but has failed to deliver any bearish follow through into a daily cycle decline.

Stocks continue to close above the upper daily cycle band, indicating a daily uptrend. At this point we need to see a close below the upper daily cycle band to signal that stocks are moving into a daily cycle decline. A break out to a new high would suggest that stocks have begun a runaway move.

The entire Weekend Report can be found at Likesmoney Subscription Services

The Weekend Report discusses Dollar, Stocks, Gold, Miners, Oil, & Bonds in terms of daily, weekly and yearly cycles.
Also included in the Weekend Report is the Likesmoney CycleTracker

For subscribers click here.

You can email me at likesmoney@gmail.com to receive a sample copy of the Weekend Report

Dollar Delivers Daily Downtrend

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Prior to August the dollar had been consistently closing above the upper daily cycle band which indicated that it was in a daily uptrend. Since August began, that has changed.

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The dollar began to close below the lower daily cycle band in early August. At first this signaled an end to the daily uptrend. Then the rally out of the day 27 low peaked below the upper daily cycle band before breaking lower. And for the past 3 days the dollar has closed below the lower daily cycle band. This confirms that the dollar has begun a daily downtrend.

While day 27 is in the timing band for a daily cycle low, the absence of a declining trend line break makes it likely that this is an extended daily cycle with Thursday being day 39.

And there is more bad news for the dollar.

$$$ weekly

The dollar crashed below the 50 week MA on week 12 and then formed a weekly swing high. It was rejected by the 50 week MA signaling that the dollar has begun its intermediate cycle decline. And then today the dollar broke below the intermediate trend line, confirming its intermediate decline. If what I suspect is true that this is day 39 for the dollar’s daily cycle then the dollar should deliver a short bounce before completing its intermediate cycle decline.

And perhaps that is why gold did not break out if its current consolidation pattern.

gld

A peak on day 8 followed by a swing high and a close below the upper daily cycle band all indicate that gold is in a daily cycle decline. I would have thought that with the dollar breaking below its intermediate trend line that it would provide enough of a tailwind to send gold rocketing higher. But perhaps gold is sniffing out a pending daily cycle low on the dollar. Still, gold is in a daily uptrend. Gold will remain in its daily uptrend unless it closes below its lower daily cycle band.

The 8/18/16 Morning Report

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Stocks are in their timing band to seek out a daily cycle low. Stocks have printed 2 swing highs but has failed to deliver any bearish follow through into a daily cycle decline.

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On Wednesday stocks printed a bullish reversal that regained the 10 day MA. A break above Monday’s high of 2193.81 would suggest that stocks are beginning a runaway move. This is characterized by small corrections of 15 to 60 points as stocks continue to advance.

Stocks continue to close above the upper daily cycle band, indicating a daily uptrend. At this point we need to see a close below the upper daily cycle band to signal that stocks are moving into a daily cycle decline.

Bullish Energy

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The energy sector continues to develop bullishly.

oil

Tuesday was day 9 for the daily oil cycle. Oil broke above the declining trend line which delivers final confirmation of the new daily cycle. Oil also closed above the upper daily cycle band. This signals an end to the daily downtrend and confirms that oil has begun a new intermediate cycle.

NATGAS appears to be bottoming as well.

natgas

NATGAS printed its lowest point on Friday, following the day 6 peak. NATGAS formed a swing low on Monday and then closed above the lower daily cycle band on Tuesday to indicate a new daily cycle. While Friday was only day 16, which is a bit early for a DCL, it does follow an extended 43 day daily cycle. So a 16 day cycle would help to even out the cycle counts. Now a break of the declining trend line will deliver confirmation of the new daily cycle .

Miner Swing High

0 miner surprise

Last Thursday we discussed how the Miners were delivering bearish signals. The Miners followed through on Monday by forming a daily swing high.

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Monday was day 15 for the daily Miner cycle. That places the Miners 3 days shy of entering their timing band to seek out a daily cycle low. The swing high that formed on Monday signals the start of the daily cycle decline.

Bonds are continuing their daily cycle decline.

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We discussed previously how bonds were becoming bearish. The daily bond cycle peaked on day 6, and formed a daily swing high on day 7. A peak on day 6 assures us of a left translated daily cycle formation. Monday was day 17 which places bonds on the verge of entering their timing band for a daily cycle low. The bearish turn on Monday should send bonds into their final daily cycle decline. A break below the previous daily cycle low of 136.74 would form a failed daily cycle and confirm the intermediate cycle decline.

The 8/12/16 Weekend Report Preview

The Dollar
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The dollar was rejected by the 200 MA which prevented it from breaking above the declining trend line. That makes it possible that Friday was day 35 of an extended daily cycle.

The dollar has started to close below the lower daily cycle band which ends the daily uptrend and indicates a daily downtrend has begun.

Stocks
stocks

Stocks entered their timing band to seek a daily cycle low this week. Because of that, we needed to be prepared for bearish follow through to the swing high that formed on Wednesday.

The 10 day MA held support on Wednesday. Stocks negated the swing high from Wednesday by breaking out to a new daily cycle high on Thursday. Now a break below Thursday’s low of 2177.97 will provide the next opportunity for stocks to form a daily swing high to begin their daily cycle decline. Stocks are currently in a daily uptrend and will remain in an uptrend unless they close below the lower daily cycle band.

The entire Weekend Report can be found at Likesmoney Subscription Services

The Weekend Report discusses Dollar, Stocks, Gold, Miners, Oil, & Bonds in terms of daily, weekly and yearly cycles.
Also included in the Weekend Report is the Likesmoney CycleTracker

For subscribers click here.

You can email me at likesmoney@gmail.com to receive a sample copy of the Weekend Report