The 4/10/21 Weekend Report Preview

The Dollar 

After peaking on day 24, the dollar printed its lowest point on Thursday, day 29. That places the dollar in its timing band for a daily cycle low.

The high on day 24 assures us of a right translated daily cycle formation which gives us the expectation of the dollar printing a higher low. A break above Thursday’s high of 92.50 will form a daily swing low. Then a close back above the 200 day MA will indicate a new daily cycle. The dollar currently is in a daily uptrend. If the dollar forms a swing low above the lower daily cycle band then the dollar will remain in its daily uptrend and trigger a cycle band buy signal.

Stocks

Stocks got a bit stretched above the 10 day MA on Monday. Stocks consolidated Tuesday and Wednesday.

Stocks broke higher on Thursday and delivered bullish follow through on Friday. The new high on day 25 assures us of a right translated daily cycle formation. Stocks are in a strong daily uptrend and will remain so unless they close back below the lower daily cycle band.

The 10 day MA has crossed above the 3975 resistance level, so now the 10 day MA can be used as the stop.

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Miners – The Big Picture

On Tuesday we discussed how the Miners are in the advancing phase of a new intermediate cycle. Tonight we will look at the longer term picture.

The Miners were on a brutal decline that began last August. The Miners printed their lowest point in March which was month 12. That places the Miners in their timing band for a YCL. The Miners have formed a monthly swing low to signal the new yearly cycle. The Miners will need to break above the declining monthly trend line to confirm the YCL. Then they could close above the 10 month MA as it rallies out of its YCL. The Miners are in a monthly uptrend. Since the swing low formed above the lower daily cycle band that signals that they will remain in their monthly uptrend and trigger a monthly buy signal. 

Miner Change Of Character

A change of character in the Miners is unfolding.

Prior to the March day 67 DCL the Miners were in a daily downtrend characterized by forming lower highs and lower lows. The day 19 DCL was the first higher low and now on Tuesday the Miners printed a higher high –> which ends the pattern of lower highs and lower lows. The Miners also closed above the upper daily cycle band. Closing above the upper daily cycle band indicates that the Miners are now in a daily uptrend. That aligns with the emerging bullish RSI pattern. Prior to the day 67 DCL, RSI 5 would embed in oversold and reverse quickly once overbought. That patterns is changing. RSI became embedded in overbought at the peak of the March daily cycle. RSI did not embed in oversold as the Miners printed the day 19 DCL. Instead, RSi reversed quickly and is now oversold.

If RSI becomes embedded in overbought that would be characteristic of the advancing phase of a new intermediate cycle.

Being in the advancing phase of a new intermediate cycle would signal a major change in trend. Which will be a game changer

Rare Air

Stocks continue to break out to new highs.

Since breaking above the 3975 resistance level stocks appear to be going vertical.

Monday was day 21 for the daily equity cycle. The new high on day 21 shifts the odds towards a right translated daily cycle formation. However, stocks are becoming stretched above the 10 day MA. Stocks will need to consolidate at some point to allow the 10 day MA to catch up to price. But if stocks too stretched above the 10 day MA we could then there will be a risk of a sharp correction. We will use a swing high and a break below the accelerated (blue dashed) trend line to signal the daily cycle decline.

The 4/03/21 Weekend Report Preview

The Dollar

The dollar formed a swing high on Thursday.

The new high on day 24 assure us of a right translated daily cycle formation. 24 days also places the dollar in its timing band for a daily cycle decline. A close below the 10 day MA will signal the daily cycle decline. The dollar currently is in a daily uptrend. The dollar will remain in its daily uptrend unless it closes below the lower daily cycle band.

Stocks

Stocks broke out to a new high on Wednesday then delivered bullish follow through on Thursday.

Thursday was day 20 for the daily equity cycle. A new high on day 20 shifts the odds towards a right translated daily cycle formation. Closing above the day 9 high signals the continuation its intermediate cycle advance.

The 3975 level was a resistance level.

Closing above the 3975 resistance level signals the continuation of the intermediate cycle advance. The 3975 level should now be support, which will be our stop.

The entire Weekend Report can be found at Likesmoney Subscription Services

The Weekend Report discusses Dollar, Stocks, Gold, Miners, Oil, & Bonds in terms of daily, weekly and yearly cycles.
Also included in the Weekend Report is the Likesmoney CycleTracker

For subscribers click here.

You can email me at likesmoney@gmail.com to receive a sample copy of the Weekend Report

A Miner Bullish Scenario

The Miners formed a swing low on Wednesday and delivered bullish follow through on Thursday.

While 19 days is a bit early to expect a DCL, the Miners did turn the 10 day MA lower as it declined into the day 19 low. And following a stretched 67 day DCL we could see a shortened cycle here, which will help to balance out the cycle counts.

There is a bullish zero line crossover on the True Strength Indicator, which often accompanies a DCL. And there is also a change in behavior on RSI 05. Prior to the day 67 DCL, RSI did not even get overbought before reversing and then embedded in oversold. That pattern is changing. The RSI became embedded in overbought during the peak of the pervious cycle. It reversed quickly once oversold and is now heading back up to overbought. If is embeds again in overbought that will be a good indication that the Miners are now in the advancing phase of a new intermediate cycle.

The Miners also managed to close above the 50 day MA on Wednesday. The 50 day MA has been a very difficult resistance for the Miners to overcome. But if the can deliver some bullish follow through here …

.. that would signal a major change in trend. Which will be a game changer

Stocks Waiting On A Break

Stocks are still waiting on a direction.

Tuesday was day 18 for the daily equity cycle. A break above the day 9 high of 3983.57 will assure us of a right translated daily cycle formation as stocks resume their intermediate cycle advance. However as we discussed yesterday, the bearish divergences developing on the oscillators point to a daily cycle decline. If stocks break below the 10 day MA and close below the 3940 level then the gravitational pull of the pending DCL will likely take over and send stocks to seek out their daily cycle low.

Status of the Daily Equity Cycle

Stocks backtested the 3940 level on Monday.

Monday was day 17 for the daily equity cycle. A break above the day 9 high of 3983.87 will shift the odds towards a right translated daily cycle formation.

However, we need to be mindful of the bearish divergences developing the oscillators. They are a warning of a pending daily cycle decline.

A close below the 3940 level would signal the daily cycle decline.

Bullish Set-Ups

The following are some bullish set-ups that caught my attention.

Since late January DRI has been in a daily uptrend that has been characterized by highs forming above the upper daily cycle band and lows forming above the lower daily cycle band. DRI formed a swing low on Thursday, closing above both the 10 day MA and the upper daily cycle band, then delivered bullish follow through on Friday. Forming a swing low above the lower daily cycle band signals that DRI will remain in its daily uptrend and triggers a cycle band buy signal.

DRI did get a bit stretched above the 10 day MA, similar to early February. Waiting on a tag of the 10 day MA may result in a better entry.

NSA has also been in a daily uptrend that has been characterized by highs forming above the upper daily cycle band and lows forming above the lower daily cycle band. NSA formed a swing low on Friday, closing above both the 10 day MA and the upper daily cycle band. Forming a swing low above the lower daily cycle band signals that NSA will remain in its daily uptrend and triggers a cycle band buy signal.

BIDU backtested a former consolidation zone and the 200 day MA. It formed a bullish reversal on massive volume. A position can be started on a swing low and added to with a close above the 50 day MA.

Stocks Deliver Bullish Follow Through

Stocks had a bullish day on Friday.

Stocks formed a bullish reversal off of support of the 50 day MA on Thursday. Then delivered bullish follow through on Friday by forming a swing low, closing above the 10 day MA and the 3940 resistance level so we will label day 15 as the half cycle low. Stocks are in a daily uptrend. Forming the swing low above the upper daily cycle band indicates that stocks will remain in their daily uptrend and triggers a cycle band buy signal.

The 3940 level was a resistance level.

Closing above the 3940 resistance level signals the continuation of the intermediate cycle advance. The 3940 level should now be support, which will be our stop.