Close, But No Cigar

The Miners came close to forming a daily swing low on Friday.

Close, but no cigar …

The Miners rallied on Friday to gain 1.12% on the day. While the Miners failed to form a daily swing low, they did regain the 50 day MA and close above the lower daily cycle band delivering the first signals that day 52 hosted the daily cycle low.

So a swing low has good odds of forming the daily cycle low, which is a buying signal. But there are some signals developing that indicate that the Miners have begun an intermediate cycle decline.

The Miners closed below the lower daily cycle band Thursday and Friday, which signals the start of the intermediate cycle decline. On the weekly chart we can see that the Miners have formed a weekly swing high and delivered a break below the weekly trend line. Both of which indicate that the Miners are in an intermediate cycle decline. And this is before the dollar beings to rally out of its intermediate cycle low.

The dollar printed its lowest point on week 31, placing it deep in its timing band for an ICL. So while a new daily dollar cycle has begun, the dollar still needs to form a weekly swing low and break above the declining weekly trend line to confirm a new intermediate cycle. And if the dollar’s intermediate rally begins to develop some traction, that will surely send the Miners lower.

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The 9/22/17 Weekend Report Preview

The Dollar
$$$

The dollar finally broke above the declining trend line on Wednesday to confirm that day 26 hosted the DCL.

The dollar’s highest point so far was Wednesday, day 8. If the dollar fails to break above Wednesday’s high of 92.50 then it will form another left translated daily cycle. The dollar is in a daily downtrend. It will remain in its daily downtrend until it can close above the upper daily cycle band.

Stocks
stocks

Stocks broke out to a new high on Wednesday, day 21. That assures us of a right translated daily cycle formation and provides more evidence that August 21st hosted the ICL.

After printing a new daily cycle high on Wednesday, stocks drifted lower into Friday. But Friday’s bullish closed allowed stocks to remain above the 10 day MA. If a swing low forms then that would indicate that Thursday was a very mild half cycle low. If stocks continue lower and break below Wednesdays’ low of 2496.67 that will form a swing high to indicate the daily cycle decline. However, stocks remain locked in a daily uptrend so any dip is a buying opportunity. Stocks will continue it its uptrend until it closes below the lower daily cycle band.

The entire Weekend Report can be found at Likesmoney Subscription Services

The Weekend Report discusses Dollar, Stocks, Gold, Miners, Oil, & Bonds in terms of daily, weekly and yearly cycles.
Also included in the Weekend Report is the Likesmoney CycleTracker

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You can email me at likesmoney@gmail.com to receive a sample copy of the Weekend Report

Miner Change in Expectation

0 miner surprise

On Monday we discussed hunting for a Miner buying signal. Since then the Miners have continued lower and have changed our expectations.

The peak on day 42 locks in a right translated daily cycle formation. But since then the Miners have delivered some bearish signals. First off the Miners closed below the lower daily cycle band. A close below the lower daily cycle band indicates and end to the daily uptrend and the start of the intermediate cycle decline.

The Miners delivered a second bearish signal on Thursday by closing below the 50 day MA. With the Miners being very deep in their timing band for a daily cycle low the rising 50 day MA should have provided support for a daily cycle low to form.

There are also bearish signals developing on the weekly chart.

The Miners have formed a weekly swing high and has broke below the weekly trend line to signal that the intermediate decline has started. Therefore once the daily cycle low forms we will be watching for the new daily cycle to form as a left translated failed daily cycle.

The odds of a left translated daily cycle formation for the Miners will certainly increase if the dollar confirms a new intermediate cycle.

Week 31 remains as the lowest point, placing the dollar late in its timing band to form an ICL. The dollar has confirmed that it began a new daily cycle. So a weekly swing low and a break above the declining 10 week MA will confirm the new intermediate cycle. A break above 92.69 will form a weekly swing low. And if the dollar confirms a new intermediate cycle that should send the Miners to seek out their intermediate cycle low.

Bonds Beginning to Become Bearish

The daily bond cycle peaked on day 29. A swing high formed two days later. Then bonds broke below the daily cycle trend line on day 32 to confirm the daily cycle decline.

Bonds formed a swing low last Thursday off the day 33 candle. Since 33 days places bonds deep in their timing band for a daily cycle low that swing low had good odds of marking the daily cycle low.

However, bonds broke lower.

Bonds delivered a bearish signal last week when they failed to follow through on a swing low deep in the timing band for a daily cycle low. Bonds delivered another bearish signal on Tuesday by closing below the lower daily cycle band. That ends the daily uptrend and indicates that bonds have begun their intermediate cycle decline.

Looking at the weekly chart we can see that bonds formed a weekly swing high last week. Bonds are delivering bearish follow through this week. Bonds also broke below the weekly trend line which is another signal that the intermediate cycle decline has begun.

A failed daily cycle normally ushers in the intermediate cycle low. Since the current daily cycle peaked on day 29, that locks in a right translated daily cycle formation. Bonds should begin a new daily cycle any day. Bonds will need for the new daily cycle to form as a left translated, failed daily cycle in order to complete the intermediate bond decline.

Hunting a Miner Buy Signal

Monday was day 49 for the daily Miner cycle, placing the Miners late in their timing band for a daily cycle low.

The last 3 daily miner cycles ran 53, 39 and 45 days respectively. Which means that once the Miners form a swing low, it will have good odds of forming the daily cycle low. Ideally speaking the Miners should break below the (blue) daily cycle trend line in order to complete its daily cycle decline. But at this point a swing low and a bullish crossover on the 30 line on RSI will signal a new daily cycle.

The Dax

The Dax has been added to my Weekend Updates and the Mid-Week Updates

The Dax closed above the upper daily cycle band. this confirms that day 38 hosted the DCL and indicates that it was also the intermediate cycle low.

The Dax has begun to close above the upper daily cycle band to begin a new daily uptrend. It will remain in its daily uptrend until it closes below the lower daily cycle band.

The Dax formed a weekly swing low the previous week and delievered bullish follow through this week to confirm that week 20 hosted the ICL. Since the August weekly low was also a failed weekly cycle that indicates that week 20 also hosted the yearly cycle low.

The DAX is in a weekly uptrend and will continue so until it closes below the lower weekly cycle band.

The DAX printed its lowest point in Aug, following the month 16 peak, which followed a failed weekly cycle. A monthly swing low has formed to signal that month 18 was the yearly cycle low.

The yearly cycle low formed above the upper monthly cycle band indicating the Dax is entering a very bullish trend. The DAX is in a monthly uptrend and will continue until it closes below the lower monthly cycle band.

The Weekend Report, The Weekend Updates, and the Mid-Week Update are all part of the Likesmoney Subscription Services. Since I am introducing the Dax to my weekend reporting I am offering a 6 week trial offer. I am offering a special 6 week trial membership for $15. You will receive 6 weeks of Likesmoney Subscription Service.

The 6 week trial subscription includes:
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* The Weekend Updates.
The Weekend Updates cover:
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* NATGAS
* XLE
* GYX
* The Bullish Percentage BINGO
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The 9/15/17 Weekend Report Preview

The Dollar
$$$

The dollar printed it lowest point the previous Fri, placing it in its timing band for a DCL. However the dollar failed this week to break above the declining trend line to confirm a new daily cycle.

The status of the dollar’s daily cycle is unclear. Friday was either day 5 or day 31. The dollar needs to break above the declining trend line to confirm the new daily cycle, which would make Friday day 5. Unless that happens that means that the daily cycle is still declining into its daily cycle low making Friday day 31.

What is clear is that the dollar continues to close below the lower daily cycle band indicating a daily downtrend. It will remain in its downtrend until it can close above the upper daily cycle band.

Stocks
stocks

The new high on Friday, day 18, is shifting the odds towards a right translated daily cycle formation.

While stocks did not form a failed daily cycle as it printed the 8/21 low, all other evidence is indicating that the intermediate low has been set. Stocks are closing above the upper daily cycle band confirming the daily uptrend. They will continue in its daily uptrend unless they close back below the lower daily cycle band.

The entire Weekend Report can be found at Likesmoney Subscription Services

The Weekend Report discusses Dollar, Stocks, Gold, Miners, Oil, & Bonds in terms of daily, weekly and yearly cycles.
Also included in the Weekend Report is the Likesmoney CycleTracker

For subscribers click here.

You can email me at likesmoney@gmail.com to receive a sample copy of the Weekend Report

Miner Temptation

Thursday was day 47 for the daily Miner cycle. That places the Miners deep in their timing band to form a daily cycle low. Thursday’s bullish print eases the parameters for forming a swing low. With the Miners in a daily uptrend it is very tempting to buy the swing low.

Even though the Miners are late in their timing band for forming a daily cycle low the Miners have not yet broke below the (blue) daily cycle trend line. The Miners should break below the daily cycle trend line in order to complete its daily cycle decline.

The status of the dollar’s cycle also has me skeptical that a daily cycle low has formed.

Thursday was likely day 4 for the dollar’s daily cycle. The dollar still needs to break above the declining trend line to confirm the new daily cycle. And once the new daily cycle is confirmed, that increases the odds that dollar has also begun a new weekly cycle.

The dollar printed its lowest point last week. At 31 weeks the dollar is late in its timing band to form an ICL. A weekly swing low and a break above the declining 10 week MA will confirm the new intermediate cycle. A break above 92.69 will form a weekly swing low. So once the new daily cycle is confirmed, that increases the odds that dollar has also begun a new weekly cycle.

Which would be bearish for precious metals.
Perhaps that is why the Miners prints a large Selling on Strength number on Thursday.

Both the Junior Miners and the Miners printed large Selling on Strength numbers that aligns with a rallying dollar which foreshadows more downside for the Miners.

Gold Update

Currently gold is in a daily uptrend and will continue in its daily uptrend unless it closes below the lower daily cycle band. However the swing high and close below the 10 day MA to signals that gold has begun its daily cycle decline.

Tuesday was day 45 for the daily gold cycle. That places gold deep in its timing band for printing a daily cycle low. Gold should break below the (blue) daily cycle trend line in order to complete is daily cycle decline.

Since gold has been trading inversely with the dollar, then let’s get a sense of where the dollar is in its daily cycle.

The dollar printed its lowest point on Friday following the day 9 peak. Friday was day 26, placing the it early in its timing band for a daily cycle low. Lately the dollar’s daily cycle have been averaging over 30 days. But since the last daily cycle ran 50 days, we could see a shortened daily cycle here. The dollar has formed a daily swing low. A close above the declining 10 day MA will signal that day 26 did host the DCL. Then a close above the declining trend line confirms the new daily cycle.

Intermediate Evidence

image

Usually stocks break below the previous daily cycle low to form a failed daily cycle. The failed daily cycle would then confirm the intermediate cycle decline.

2_sxp_daily

Stocks did not formed a failed daily cycle as it declined into the 8/21 daily cycle low. However all other evidence points to 8/21 hosting the intermediate cycle low.

Beginning with the daily chart. Normally a close below the lower daily cycle band indicates that the intermediate cycle decline has begun. Then after the cycle low forms, a close above the upper daily cycle band indicates that the intermediate low has been set.

Stock did close below the lower daily cycle band on its way to the 8/21 DCL. And stocks have clearly closed above the upper daily cycle band which indicates that 8/21 hosted the ICL.

4_spx_weekly

The following confirm the intermediate cycle decline:
Weekly swing high
Break of the weekly trend line.
Closed below the 10 week MA
Stocks closed below the upper weekly cycle band
Bearish Zero Line Crossover on Weekly TSI

Then there is evidence from the weekly charts of an intermediate cycle low:
Weekly swing low.
Closed back above the 10 week MA.
Closed back above the upper weekly cycle band.
Bullish Zero Line Crossover on Weekly TSI.

1_AD_Line

There is also evidence from the advance decline line.

The weekly Advance Decline broke below the 10 week MA, which typically accompanies an intermediate cycle decline. Regaining the 10 week MA indicates a new intermediate cycle. However the Advance Decline is breaking to new highs. Usually when the AD line breaks to new highs stocks follow.

3_spx_uptrend

As previously mentioned; Stocks have closed back above the upper daily cycle band. This signals that stocks have re-established their daily uptrend. Therefore stocks should remain in their daily uptrend unless they close below the lower daily cycle band.