The 1/18/20 Weekend Report Preview

The Dollar

 
The dollar closed above the upper daily cycle band on Friday.

The dollar broke below its previous daily cycle low to print its lowest point on day 11. Breaking below the previous daily cycle low forms a failed daily cycle. 11 days is too early for a daily cycle low to form. But closing above the upper daily cycle band signals that the intermediate cycle low has been set — which indicates that day 11 was the daily cycle low. Since a cycle cannot fail then go on to make a new high, a break above the 97.41 would form a high daily cycle high which would have us label day 11 as the DCL. Closing above the upper dialy cycle band signals an end to the daily downtrend and the start of a new daily uptrend.

Stocks

 
Stocks printed a new daily cycle high on Friday.

Friday was day 31 for the daily cycle. That places stocks in their timing band for a daily cycle low. There are bearish divergences developing on the oscillators, which often precede a cycle decline. A swing high and a break below the daily cycle trend line will signal the daily cycle decline. The new high on Friday locks in a right translated daily cycle formation which aligns with stocks begin in a daily uptrend.  Stocks will remain in their daily uptrend unless they close below the lower daily cycle band. 

The entire Weekend Report can be found at Likesmoney Subscription Services

The Weekend Report discusses Dollar, Stocks, Gold, Miners, Oil, & Bonds in terms of daily, weekly and yearly cycles.
Also included in the Weekend Report is the Likesmoney CycleTracker

For subscribers click here.

You can email me at likesmoney@gmail.com to receive a sample copy of the Weekend Report

Oil Recovers the 200 MA

Oil formed a daily swing low on Thursday.

Oil printed its lowest point on Wednesday, day 31, placing oil in its timing band for a daily cycle low. Oil did close below the 200 day MA on Wednesday, which suggested a further decline. But oil delivered a bullish surprise on Thursday by forming a swing low and closing back above the 200 day MA to signal that day 31 was the daily cycle low. Oil will need to close back above the 10 day MA for confirmation.

JNUG

JNUG delivered a buy signal on Tuesday.

The decline from the August peak saw JNUG form a rounded bottom that printed its lowest point in November. The 200 MA (on the 4 hour chart) was resistance as JNUG was forming its bottom. Then JNUG broke above the 200 MA late December to form its daily cycle peak. The decline from the late December rally now has JUNG backtesting the 200 MA.

On closer inspection we can see that JNUG found support at the 200 MA. It formed a swing low and closed above both the 50 MA and the declining 10 MA. A long entry can be made with the stop place at the 200 MA which is 68.13.

This reflects what the Miners did on Tuesday. The Miners are late in their timing band for a daily cycle low and may have printed the DCL on Tuesday, which I plan to cover on Wednesday’s Mid-Week Update.

Bearish Divergence

Stocks broke out again to new highs on Monday.

Monday was day 27 for the daily cycle, placing stocks 3 days shy of their timing band for a daily cycle low. There are bearish divergences developing on the the money flow and oscillators which often precede a cycle decline. A break of the daily cycle trend line will signal of the daily cycle decline.

The 1/10/20 Weekend Report Preview

The Dollar

 
The dollar printed its lowest point on day 11. That should have been too early for a daily cycle low to form.

However with the currency manipulation and the conflict in the Mideast it certainly appears as if an early DCL formed. The dollar formed a swing low and closed above the 10 day MA. It is running into resistance at the converging 50 day MA and the 200 day MA. A close above these two moving averages would confirm that day 11 was an early DCL. The dollar is in a daily downtrend.  It will remain in its daily downtrend unless it closes back above the upper daily cycle band.
 

Stocks

 
Stocks printed a new daily cycle high on Friday.

Friday was day 26 for the daily cycle. The new high on Friday locks in a right translated daily cycle formation which aligns with stocks begin in a daily uptrend. There are bearish divergences developing on the oscillators, which often precede a cycle decline. Stocks did printed a bearish candle on Friday, which eases the parameters for forming a daily swing high. A break below 3260.86 will form a daily swing high. Then a break below the daily cycle trend line will signal the daily cycle decline. Stocks are in a daily uptrend.  Stocks will remain in their daily uptrend unless they close below the lower daily cycle band. 

The entire Weekend Report can be found at Likesmoney Subscription Services

The Weekend Report discusses Dollar, Stocks, Gold, Miners, Oil, & Bonds in terms of daily, weekly and yearly cycles.
Also included in the Weekend Report is the Likesmoney CycleTracker

For subscribers click here.

You can email me at likesmoney@gmail.com to receive a sample copy of the Weekend Report

Miner Daily Cycle Decline


The Miners

 
The Miners broke bearishly out of consolidation on Wednesday.

The Miners delivered bearish follow through on Thursday, which was day 38, placing them late their timing band for a daily cycle low.  The Miners should break below the daily cycle trend line in order to form its pending daily cycle low. The peak on day 34 locks in a right translated daily cycle formation, which aligns with the Miners being in a daily uptrend.  They will remain in their daily uptrend unless they close below the lower daily cycle band.

Miner Resilience

When we looked at the Miners on Monday we noted that they late in their timing band band for a daily cycle low and that the oscillators had started to diverge. The Miners appeared to be ready to begin their daily cycle decline. So with the dollar rallying on Tuesday the Miners demonstrated bullish resilience.

The dollar broke below the previous daily cycle low on last week on day 12, which is too early to expect a daily cycle low. The dollar formed a swing low on Thursday and rallied again on Tuesday. Since the dollar’s daily cycle low can stretch to 26 – 30 days, Tuesday’s rally may just be setting up the declining trend line for the dollar as it declines into the pending daily cycle low.

And I think that is what the Miners were sniffing out on Tuesday.

The Miners have been consolidating the since becoming stretched above the 10 day MA as a result of rallying strongly into the year’s end. This allowed the 10 day MA to catch up to price. And if the dollar does compete its daily cycle decline that should ignite the Miners to break bullishly out of consolidation.

Miner Consolidation

The Miners have been consolidating the past 4 sessions after becoming stretched above the 10 day MA as a result of rallying strongly into the year’s end.

Monday was day 35 for the daily Miner cycle. That places them late in there timing band for a daily cycle low. There are bearish divergences developing on the oscillators which usually precede a daily cycle decline. A break below 29.01 will form a daily swing high to signal the daily cycle decline.

The bigger picture is that the Miners are pushing up against a multi year resistance zone. With the Miners being late in their timing band for a daily cycle decline, the Miners will likely need to print a daily cycle low before any breakout can be sustained.

The 1/04/20 Weekend Report Preview

The Dollar

 
The dollar broke below the previous daily cycle low on Monday to form a failed daily cycle.

The dollar then delivered bearish follow through on Tuesday. The peak on day 6 sets the dollar up for a left translated daily cycle formation. The dollar did manage to rally on Thursday and test the 10 day MA on Friday. Tuesday was only day 11, which is too early to expect a daily cycle low. Therefore the dollar should be rejected by the 10 day MA and continue its daily cycle decline. The dollar is in a daily downtrend.  It will remain in its daily downtrend unless it closes back above the upper daily cycle band.

Stocks

 
Stocks printed a new high on Thursday, day 20, to indicate a right translated daily cycle formation.

This was a volatile week for stocks. Stocks formed a swing high on Friday. There are bearish divergences developing on the oscillators, which often precede a cycle decline. A break below the daily cycle trend line will signal the daily cycle decline. Stocks are in a daily uptrend.  Stocks will remain in their daily uptrend unless they close below the lower daily cycle band. 

The entire Weekend Report can be found at Likesmoney Subscription Services

The Weekend Report discusses Dollar, Stocks, Gold, Miners, Oil, & Bonds in terms of daily, weekly and yearly cycles.
Also included in the Weekend Report is the Likesmoney CycleTracker

For subscribers click here.

You can email me at likesmoney@gmail.com to receive a sample copy of the Weekend Report
 

Half Cycle Low

Stocks formed a swing high and broke below the trend line on Monday.

Stocks continued lower on Tuesday to print a lower low, but ended up closing higher on the day. On Thursday stocks formed a swing low and broke out to a. new high. Tuesday was day 19, which is too early to expect a daily cycle low. A new high on Thursday, day 20, shifts the odds towards a right translated daily cycle formation. So Thursday’s swing low will have us re-draw the daily cycle trend line and label Tuesday as a half cycle low.

Stocks have been closing above the upper daily cycle band which means that they are in a daily uptrend. Thursday’s swing low signals that stocks will remain in their daily uptrend and triggers a cycle band buy signal with the stop being Tuesday’s low.