The 2/15/19 Weekend Report Preview

The Dollar

The dollar printed a bearish reversal on Friday.

We discussed how the 97 level was a resistance level for the dollar. The dollar had four attempts to close above it and was soundly rejected by it on Friday. This has me expecting the dollar to now decline into its daily cycle low. Since the previous daily cycle was shortened we could see an extended daily cycle form here, which would make it likely to see a left translated daily cycle formation.

The dollar has not yet completed its yearly cycle decline. A left translated daily cycle formation would align with the dollar completing its yearly cycle decline. And a left translated daily cycle formation would indicate that this is week 21 for the intermediate dollar cycle.

A complete breakdown of the dollar’s daily, weekly, yearly and multi year cycles can be found in the Weekend Report.

Stocks

Stocks closed above the 200 day MA on Friday.

Friday was day 35, placing stocks in their timing band for a daily cycle decline. And stocks continue to print large SOS days. Now 11 of the preceding 16 days printed strong Selling on Strength numbers.

* Stocks are in their timing band for a daily cycle decline.
* Stocks continue to print SOS numbers which are harbingers that a cycle decline is imminent.
* Bearish divergences are developing on the oscillators which typically precede a cycle decline.

Once a swing high forms it will likely send stocks into their daily cycle decline. But stocks are in a daily uptrend. once the cycle decline begins, if the swing low forms above the lower daily cycle band that will mean that stocks remain in their daily uptrend and that would trigger a cycle band buy signal.

The entire Weekend Report can be found at Likesmoney Subscription Services

The Weekend Report discusses Dollar, Stocks, Gold, Miners, Oil, & Bonds in terms of daily, weekly and yearly cycles.
Also included in the Weekend Report is the Likesmoney CycleTracker

For subscribers click here.

You can email me at likesmoney@gmail.com to receive a sample copy of the Weekend Report

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Miner Balance

The previous 2 daily Miners cycle were stretched at 44 days and 45 days respectively. Since cycles tend to balance out the Miners are due for a shortened daily cycle.

The Miners peaked on day 7, formed a swing high, and then closed below the 10 day MA – managing to turn it lower to signal the daily cycle decline. The Miners printed a bullish reversal on Thursday, day 17, which is on the early end of its timing band for a daily cycle low. A break above 22.18 forms a swing low to signal a new daily cycle. And since the Miners are in a daily uptrend, if a swing low forms above the lower daily cycle band then the Miners will remain in their daily uptrend and trigger a cycle band buy signal.

A possible left translated daily dollar cycle appears to by the wind beneath the Miner’s wings.

Thursday was day 10 for the daily dollar cycle. The dollar once again ran into resistance at the 97 level. Thursday’s bearish reversal has eased the parameters for forming a swing high. A break below 96.77 forms a swing high to signal the daily cycle decline. And since the previous daily cycle was a shortened daily cycle that favors the current daily cycle stretching to balance out the cycle counts. Then a peak on day 10 could lead to a left translated daily cycle formation which would align with the dollar still seeking its yearly cycle low, which I plan to discuss in the Weekend Report.

Dollar Rejected

The dollar found support at the 200 day MA on Jan 31st and printed an early, 14 day, DCL. The dollar rallied out of that DCL to close above the upper daily cycle band, confirming a new daily cycle and indicating a new intermediate cycle.

However that dollar ran into resistance at the 97 level on Tuesday.

The dollar did print a new daily cycle high on Tuesday. But the dollar was rejected by the 97 level, a level that turned the dollar back in August and in October. This eases the parameters for forming a daily swing high. A break below 96.44 forms a daily swing high. A peak on day 8 would set up a potential left translated daily cycle formation. And with the dollar in its timing band for a yearly cycle low, a left translated daily cycle formation would align with the dollar completing its yearly cycle decline. In the Weekend Report I plan to detail what the dollar would need to do to complete its yearly cycle decline.

Stocks Continue to Deliver Sell Signals

Despite stocks being up on Friday and Monday, stocks continue to deliver sell signals.

Monday was day 31 for the daily equity cycle. That places stocks in their timing band for a daily cycle low. Over the past 13 trading days there have been 9 Selling on Strength days. Usually when there is a clustering of SOS days when stocks are in their timing band for a daily cycle low, a decline into the DCL soon follows.

The 2/08/19 Weekend Report Preview

The Dollar

The dollar confirmed a new daily cycle.

The dollar has rallied off of support from the 200 day MA to close above the 10 day MA and turned it higher. It also managed to close above the 50 day MA confirming day 14 as an early DCL. Closing above the upper daily cycle band ends the daily downtrend and begins a daily uptrend. It also indicates the dollar has begun a new intermediate cycle.

Stocks

Stocks ran into resistance at the 200 day MA and turned lower.

Stocks formed a swing high and did break below the daily cycle trend line to indicate that the daily cycle decline has begun. Friday was day 30, placing stocks in the early part of its timing band for a daily cycle low. The over 3240 million in Selling on Strength prior to the daily cycle peak has me expecting a deeper correction. Stocks should close below the 10 day MA and turn it lower before printing its daily cycle low. But stocks printed a bullish reversal on Friday. If stocks form a swing low here that would trigger a cycle band buy signal. A close back above the 200 day MA would indicate that day 30 was a half cycle low.

The entire Weekend Report can be found at Likesmoney Subscription Services

The Weekend Report discusses Dollar, Stocks, Gold, Miners, Oil, & Bonds in terms of daily, weekly and yearly cycles.
Also included in the Weekend Report is the Likesmoney CycleTracker

For subscribers click here.

You can email me at likesmoney@gmail.com to receive a sample copy of the Weekend Report

Bearish Signals Accumulate

Bearish signals continue to accumulate for stocks.

We discussed here how there have been 7 Selling on Strength days leading up to the daily cycle peak with over 3.2 billion in selling on strength. This type of clustering of large SOS numbers has been a reliable indicator of a pending daily cycle decline.

Other bearish indicators include stocks forming a swing high as they are being turned lower at the 200 day MA. Stocks have also closed below the daily cycle trend line and have breached the 10 day MA. There is also a bearish divergence developing on the True Strength Indicator along with a bearish TSI crossover. Given all of the above along with stocks being just one day shy of entering its timing band for a daily cycle low all point to an imminent daily cycle decline. A close below the 10 day MA will confirm the daily cycle decline.

Sell Signals Accumulate

Stocks printed a higher high on Tuesday.

Tuesday was day 27 for the daily equity cycle, placing stocks three days shy of its timing band for a daily cycle decline. While stocks broke out to a new daily cycle high, there are sell signals that are beginning to accumulate.

Over the past 10 trading days there have been 7 Selling on Strength days. Usually when there is a clustering of SOS days when stocks are in their timing band for a daily cycle low then a cycle decline is imminent.

Dollar Direction

The dollar’s daily cycle tagged the 50 day MA as it peaked on day 9. The ensuing swing high closed below the 10 day MA to send the dollar into its daily cycle decline.

The dollar rallied off of support from the 200 day MA on Thursday, day 14. The dollar delivered bullish follow through on Monday. Since 14 days is too early to expect a daily cycle low it is likely that day 14 is a half cycle low. On Monday, the dollar tagged the declining trend line and the declining 10 day MA. The dollar should choose its direction here. A close above the 10 day MA will have us label day 14 as an early daily cycle low. However, rejection by the 10 day MA should send the dollar lower to complete its daily cycle decline. And with a peak on day 9, that favors a left translated daily cycle formation which makes it likely to see the dollar break below the previous DCL to form a failed daily cycle. A break below 94.64 forms a failed daily cycle. The dollar is currently in a daily downtrend. It will remain in its daily downtrend unless it closes above the upper daily cycle band.

The2/01/19 Weekend Report Preview

The Dollar

The dollar closed below the lower daily cycle band on Wednesday to confirm the daily cycle decline.

The peak on day 9 favors a left translated daily cycle formation. Closing below the lower daily cycle band indicates a continuation of the intermediate cycle decline.

However, the dollar rallied off of support from the 200 day MA on Thursday. Then formed a daily swing low on Friday. It is not surprising that the dollar did not break below the 200 day MA on its first try. Thursday was only 14 for the daily dollar cycle. Since is too early to expect a daily cycle low, it is more likely that this is a counter trend rally that will set the declining trend line.

Stocks

Stocks printed a new higher on Friday, day 25. That locks in a right translated daily cycle formation.

Stocks are 5 days shy of its timing band for a daily cycle low. There are bearish divergences developing. It is not likely that stocks will break above 200 day MA on its first try. Stocks are in a daily uptrend. They will remain in their uptrend unless they close below the lower daily cycle band.

Something to keep in mind is that President Trump will deliver his State of the Union Address on Tuesday. Below are the last two times he delivered the State of the Union.

The last 2 times he delivered the State of the Union Address stocks declined into their cycle lows. And with stocks being 5 days shy of its timing band for a daily cycle low, there is the possibility history repeating itself.

The entire Weekend Report can be found at Likesmoney Subscription Services

The Weekend Report discusses Dollar, Stocks, Gold, Miners, Oil, & Bonds in terms of daily, weekly and yearly cycles.
Also included in the Weekend Report is the Likesmoney CycleTracker

For subscribers click here.

You can email me at likesmoney@gmail.com to receive a sample copy of the Weekend Report

Gravitational Pull

The dollar found support off the 200 day MA on Thursday.

Thursday was day 14 for the dollar’s daily cycle. If the dollar was in its timing band for a daily cycle low then we would expect that the 200 day MA would trigger the DCL. But the dollar should have 2 to 3 more weeks before it prints its daily cycle low. The peak on day 9 sets up the expectation for a left translated daily cycle formation, which aligns with the dollar being in a daily downtrend. The gravitational pull from the pending intermediate cycle low should cause the dollar break below the previous daily cycle low of 94.64 in order to complete its daily cycle decline.

The dollar has already confirmed that it is declining into its intermediate cycle low. The dollar printed its lowest point week 16, following the week 8 peak. But 16 weeks is too early to expect an intermediate cycle low. Last week the dollar was rejected by the 10 week MA which indicates a continuation of the intermediate cycle decline. Allowing 2 to 3 weeks for the completion of the current daily cycle will bring the dollar into its timing band for an intermediate cycle low. And since the cycle low is the lowest point following the cycle peak, then the dollar should break below the week 16 low of 94.64 in order to complete its intermediate cycle decline.

And in the Weekend Report I will explain why I think the dollar will continue lower to break below the September low of 93.39.