The dollar printed its lowest point on day 17, which was early for a DCL to form. While the dollar closed above the 10 day MA on the previous Wednesday, it has since beenrejected by the 10 day MA last Thursday and then once again on Tuesday to extend its daily cycle decline.
Tuesday was day 24, placing the dollar in its timing band for a DCL. The dollar should break below the day 17 low of 104.41 in order to complete its daily cycle decline. The dollar is currently in a daily uptrend. But a close below the lower daily cycle band will end the daily uptrend and begin a a daily downtrend.
The Miners broke bullishly out of consolidation on Thursday but has not been able to deliver any bullish follow through.
The Miners formed a swing high on Monday. The Miners got stretched above the 10 day MA last week. Monday’s swing high is helping to allow the 10 day MA to catch up to price. With the Miners being in a daily uptrend, a successful backtest of the breakout would indicate a continuation of the daily uptrend and signal a cycle band buy signal. But a break below the lower triangle stem would signal the daily cycle decline.
The dollar printed its lowest point on day 17, which was early for a DCL to form. But the bullish reversal off support from the 50 day MA could have triggered a DCL to form. The dollar formed a swing low but was rejected by the declining 10 day MA on Thursday. Any bearish follow through will likely extend the daily cycle decline. The dollar is currently in a daily uptrend. A close back above the 10 day MA will indicate a continuation of its daily uptrend and signal a cycle band buy signal — in which we would then label day 17 as an early DCL.
Stocks
Stocks closed above the 50 day MA on Monday then delivered bullish follow through into Friday.
The new high on day 15 shifts the odds towards a right translated daily cycle formation. Stocks are now stretched above the 10 day MA. Stocks may need to consolidate to allow the 10 day MA to catch up to price. Stocks are currently in a daily uptrend. Stocks will remain in their daily uptrend unless they close below the lower daily cycle band.
The Weekend Report discusses Dollar, Stocks, Gold, Miners, Oil, & Bonds in terms of daily, weekly and yearly cycles. Also included in the Weekend Report is the Likesmoney CycleTracker
The Miners have been forming a triangle consolidation, which is obscuring our daily cycle counts.
A break below the day 38 low of 32.20 would extend the daily cycle decline. However, the Miners are currently in a daily uptrend. A bullish break out of consolidation would indicate a continuation of its daily uptrend and signal a cycle band buy signal – which would affirm day 38 as the DCL making Tuesday day 10 of the new daily cycle.
Stocks closed above the 50 day MA on Monday.We discussed on Saturday that close above the 50 day MA will shift the odds that stocks are in a new intermediate cycle.
Stocks also closed above the upper daily cycle band. Closing above the upper daily cycle band ends the daily downtrend and begins a daily uptrend. Closing above the upper daily cycle band also signals that the ICL has been set. — which I plan to discuss in the Weekend Report.
The dollar broke bearishly out of consolidation on Thursday and delivered bearish follow through on Friday.
Friday was day 17 for the daily cycle, which is early to expect a DCL to form. However, the dollar found support from the rising 50 day MA and formed a bullish reversal — easing the parameters for forming a swing low. The dollar is currently in a daily uptrend. If the dollar forms a swing low above the lower daily cycle band and closes back above the 10 day MA, that will indicate a continuation of its daily uptrend and signal a cycle band buy signal — in which we would then label day 17 as an early DCL. A break above 105.25 will form a swing low.
Stocks
Stocks regained the 10 day MA on Thursday and delivered bullish follow through on Friday, turning the 10 day MA higher.
Stocks ran into resistance at the 50 day MA on Friday. A close above the 50 day MA will shift the odds that stocks are in a new intermediate cycle. Stocks are currently in a daily downtrend. A close above the upper daily cycle band will end the daily downtrend and begin a new daily uptrend.
The Weekend Report discusses Dollar, Stocks, Gold, Miners, Oil, & Bonds in terms of daily, weekly and yearly cycles. Also included in the Weekend Report is the Likesmoney CycleTracker
Stocks rallied on Thursday with a rate hike in the rear view mirror.
Stocks regained the 10 day MA on Thursday. Stocks should turn the 10 day MA higher as it rallies out of the recent DCL. Stocks are currently in a daily downtrend. But a close above the upper daily cycle band will end the daily downtrend and begin a new daily uptrend.
Cycle Trading 