The Mighty Dollar

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The dollar rallied again today printing another higher daily cycle high.

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Tuesday was day 5 for the daily dollar cycle. At 21 weeks into its intermediate cycle, the dollar is now due to roll over into an intermediate cycle low. Therefore our expectation would be to see the dollar to roll over by day 8 and print a failed daily cycle. However, as we saw today, until the dollar rolls over, commodities will continue to be volatile.

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Both oil and the CRB delivered trend line breaks on Monday. After the dollar set new highs today we see that they both formed swing highs and now threaten to break below the recent lows.

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Stocks continue to flounder as the dollar rallies. Monday saw stocks print a reversal and regain the 50 day MA. While stocks did form a swing low today, stocks were halted by the declining cycle trend line and lost the 50 day MA. We still are waiting on a clear and convincing trend line break to confirm a new daily cycle.

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Bonds formed a swing high today. If bonds deliver a clear and convincing trend line break that would indicate that bonds are continuing their intermediate cycle decline.

Commodities Delivering Trend Breaks

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Commodities took a bullish turn today with many forming swing lows or delivering a declining trend line break.

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Oil has been in decline since late July. Last week on Monday, oil printed its lowest point since the July peaK. Then on Tuesday of last week, oil formed a swing low. Finally today Oil broke above the declining trend line to confirm today as day 5 of the new daily cycle.

NATGAS also delivered a trend line break today.

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NATGAS’s yearly cycle peaked in February and decline into July. We suspected that NATGAS left behind a yearly low then, but was waiting on confirmation. The clear and convincing break above the declining weekly trend line along with closing above the resistance at the $4.00 level signals that NATGAS is in a new yearly cycle.

Agriculture also delivered a clear and convincing declining trend line break.

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The daily cycle for agriculture peaked in early September and declined into the lowest point last Monday. Although a swing low formed the next day it was not until today that a clear and convincing declining trend line break form making today day 5 of a new daily cycle.

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So with Oil, NATGAS, and Ag all delivering trend line breaks it is no surprise to see the CRB do so as well. The trend line break today confirms Monday as day 5 for the new CRB daily cycle.

Meanwhile stocks printed a lower low today.

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Monday was day 36 for the daily equity cycle. While a lower low did form, stocks also rallied into the close, recovering the 50 day MA. This has eased the parameters for forming a swing low. At day 36, stocks are in their timing band to print daily cycle low. A break above 1981.28 forms a swing low. Then a break of the declining trend line confirms a new daily cycle. With a peak on day 30, this daily cycle will form in a right translated manner. Therefore, we can expect the new cycle to go on to print a higher daily cycle high.

The 9/26/14 Weekend Report Preview

The Dollar
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Day 26 looked in real time like the dollar printed a stealth daily cycle low. I do believe that the dollar began a new daily cycle but it looks like that daily cycle began on Wednesday.

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The dollar broke to a new high on Monday. Then a swing high formed on Tuesday. Tuesday broke below the developing trend line which has me thinking that Tuesday printed an extended daily cycle low. Our expectation is to see this new dollar cycle form as a left translated cycle. Which means that we should see the dollar roll over on or before day 8. If I am correct that Tuesday was an extended daily cycle low that would make this coming Friday day 8. This Friday is “Jobs Friday” and we often see the dollar turn on or near a “Jobs Friday”.

Stocks
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The daily equity cycle peaked the previous Friday on day 30. Stocks lost the 50 day MA on Thursday only to regain it back on Friday.

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Stocks printed its lowest point on Thursday since the daily cycle peaked on day 30. Stocks are in their timing band to print a daily cycle low. Currently stocks would need to break above 1997.32 to form a swing low. A break of the declining trend line would then confirm a new daily cycle. Since this daily cycle has locked in a right translated nature our expectation is to see the impending new daily cycle print a higher dialy cycle high.

Broken Record

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Gold printed another lower low today.
Gold is getting late in its timing band.
Gold is due for a daily cycle low.
A swing low will likely form the daily cycle low.

It seems that the above has been the narrative on gold for the past four weeks. And it is all true again today.

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Thursday was day 38 for gold’s daily cycle. The bullish reversal has set up gold to form a swing low. A break above 1224.80 forms a swing low. Then a break above the declining trend line confirms a new daily cycle.

And what has been driving gold lower is the unrelenting push higher by the dollar.

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Thursday was day 7 for the dollar’s daily cycle. The dollar has broken above the previous three year cycle high. Please notice the dollar’s tendency to break above a previous high then reversing into a sharp decline. And with the dollar on week 20, the dollar is due for an intermediate cycle decline. Our expectation is to see the current daily dollar cycle form in a left translated manner. Which means that a bearish reversal should be imminent.

So the dollar is the puppet master. And once the intermediate cycle rolls over, we should see gold break out into a new daily cycle.

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Touching All The Bases

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Editors note:
I saved my draft report to proof read later. then I forgot to post it :)

Stocks reversed bullishly off the 50 day MA today suggesting that stocks may have formed a daily cycle low.

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Stocks peaked on Friday, which was day 30. Stocks formed a swing high on Monday, losing the day 10 MA in the process. Tuesday stocks broke below the daily cycle trend line confirming the daily cycle decline. At day 33, stocks are in their timing band to print a daily cycle low. The bullish reversal today has eased the parameters for forming a swing low. A break above 1999.79 forms a swing low.

But confirmation of a new daily cycle here is not a foregone conclusion. The daily equity cycle can extend to day 45. So there is still time for stocks to go lower. Also, stocks printed a big 470 million Selling on Strength today. In order to touch all the bases we will need to see break to new highs to confirm the new daily cycle.

The 9/23/14 Evening Report

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Based on previous daily equities cycles, we needed to be open to the possibility that day 26 marked a daily cycle low. Today’s print takes that scenario off the table.

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The daily equity cycle broke below the trend line formed by the day 26 candle. The break of that trend line means that day 26 set the daily cycle trend line. Which makes today day 32. Today’s trend line break also signals that the daily cycle is in decline.

The dollar formed a swing high today.

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Tuesday was day 5 for the dollar’s daily cycle. The weekly cycle sits at week 20 and is in the timing band for an intermediate cycle decline. Our expectation is to see this daily cycle form in a left translated fashion and fail. The swing high and trend line break that printed today aligns with our expectation. Still we need to see a clear and convincing break of the trend line to confirm the daily cycle decline.

The Miners have been waiting on the dollar to rollover to form a swing low.

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The Miners daily cycle has been in decline since peaking in early August. The Miners printed the lowest point on Monday and today they formed a swing low. Considering that the Miners are late in their timing band, today’s swing has a good chance of marking the daily cycle low.

The Miners are currently declining into their yearly cycle low. As discussed here last night, I believe that the Miners need to break below 21.93 to form a lower low. You will notice that the Miners did not break below the June low of 21.93. By not making that lower low I believe that the Miners will need to do so before beginning a new yearly cycle. So if today’s swing low is the daily cycle low, then I expect to see one more failed daily cycle.

Bearish Outlook

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Stocks printed a new all-time high on Friday. Stocks took on a bearish disposition on Monday by forming a swing high and closing below the 10 day MA today.

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We discussed on Thursday that day 26 could mark an early daily cycle low, citing past examples. Stocks would need to bullishly rebound off of the dashed trend line for this scenario to be valid. A break below the dashed trend line would mean that today was day 31 and stocks have begun their decline into a daily cycle low.

Meanwhile the dollar printed another higher high today.

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Monday was day 4 for the dollar’s daily cycle. The dollar is now 19 weeks into its intermediate cycle and due for an intermediate cycle decline. Our expectation is to see this daily cycle form in a left translated manner and fail. I believe that we will see the dollar break above the 3 year cycle high before reversing into its daily cycle decline.

And if the dollar breaks above the three year high that should help to send the Miners lower.

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The Miners yearly cycle peaked on month 3. The Miners have now broke below the yearly cycle trend line signaling the yearly cycle decline. The Miners need to print a lower low to form the yearly cycle low. A break below the month 5 low of 21.93 will accomplish that.

The 9/19/14 Weekend Report Preview

The Dollar
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The dollar printed its highest point on Monday since the daily cycle began on August 11th. A swing high formed on Tuesday.

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The dollar quickly formed a swing low on Wednesday and more bullish follow through on Friday. Considering that Monday was getting late in the dollar’s timing band I believe that Tuesday printed a stealth daily cycle low.

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This was week 19 for the intermediate dollar cycle. The higher high that printed on week 19 assures us that the intermediate cycle will form in a right translated manner. Since a failed daily cycle is required for an intermediate cycle decline our expectation is to see this new daily cycle form as a left translated, failed daily cycle. If I were to guess, I would say that it looks like the dollar will run the stops above the previous 3 year peak before rolling over into an intermediate cycle decline.

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September is month 4 for the new yearly cycle. The dollar has broken above the declining monthly trend line to provide final confirmation of a three year cycle low has been left behind. It is worth noting that the monthly TSI is now approaching a level that has been breached only 5 times over the past 24 years.

Stocks
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The daily equity cycle peaked on day 19. The lowest point since then printed on Monday, day 26. Stocks have gone on to rally to new highs.

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Monday was potentially a half cycle low. If Monday was a half cycle low, then a break of the (dashed) trend line would signal a daily cycle decline. However, I believe that stocks printed an early daily cycle low, which I discussed in Thursday’s Evening Report. The big Buying on Weakness number from Friday also supports this notion.

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The huge 1.114 billion Buying on Weakness number of Friday is the bigger than the type of number we would expect to see at an intermediate cycle low, let alone a daily cycle low.

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The 9/18/14 Evening Report

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The daily equity cycle peaked on day 19 and then declined. It printed its lowest point on day 26 before forming a swing low. Today saw stocks break out to new highs.

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The normal timing band for a daily cycle low runs from day 30 through day 45. However the breakout to new highs has me thinking that a 26 day daily cycle low may have left behind.

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Stocks have printed sub-30 day daily cycle lows in the past as evidenced above. The above chart shows a 28 day daily cycle low formed in September of 2012 and December of 2012 saw stocks leave behind a 29 day daily cycle low.

Bonds appear to be ready to print a daily cycle low.

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Bonds formed a lower low on day 19. Bonds are in the timing band to form a daily cycle low. A swing low and trend line break will signal a new daily cycle. With the weekly count at week 11, we should see another failed daily cycle following once a daily cycle low forms.

The 9/18/14 Morning Update

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The dollar has been powering out of its three year cycle low that it left behind in May. The bullish surprise yesterday looks like the dollar has printed a stealth daily cycle low.

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A swing high formed on Tuesday, which was day 26 for the dollar’s daily cycle. Being that late in the daily cycle the dollar should have rolled over into its daily cycle low. The break to new highs indicate a new daily cycle.

Now the dollar is in week 19 for the intermediate cycle. The dollar is already in its timing band to seek out an intermediate cycle low. I suspect we will see the dollar break above the previous three year peak and then reverse into an intermediate cycle decline. A left translated, failed daily cycle is required for an intermediate cycle decline. Therefore we should see this new daily cycle roll over on or before day 8.