Gravitational Pull

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The daily equity cycle aged one more day today and is beginning to feel the gravitational pull of the impending daily cycle low.

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Tuesday was day 32 of the daily equity cycle. Stocks were rejected after back testing the swing high and probably set the declining cycle trend line. Stocks have yet to deliver a break of the daily cycle trend line to confirm the daily cycle decline. But the True Strength Indicator did break below the Zero Line, which often leads into the daily cycle decline.

The Transports confirmed their daily cycle decline today.

tranhttp://postimg.org/image/s55r947ab/

Like stocks, the transports daily cycle peaked on Thursday. However today they delivered a break of their daily cycle trend line to confirm their daily cycle decline.

The CRB also appears to be feeling the gravitational pull of a daily cycle low.

crbhttp://postimg.org/image/55t0k14c5/

Typically a left translated, failed daily CRB cycle peaks on or before day 8. Currently the CRB sports a day 7 peak with a swing high having formed on day 8. The CRB is just 0.68% away from forming a failed daily cycle. A break below 294.67 forms a third consecutive failed daily cycle.

And with the dollar apparently rallying out of a three year low, which we discussed here, it is no wonder that the CRB is taking it on the chin…

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Testing the Line

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Stocks peaked on Thursday, which was day 29 of the daily equity cycle. A swing high formed on Friday and Monday saw stocks test the daily cycle trend line.

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Monday was day 31 for the daily equity cycle. Stocks have entered into their timing band to print a daily cycle low. Stocks still need to break below the daily cycle trend line in order to confirm the daily cycle decline. And the 95 million Selling on Strength that printed today indicates more selling to come.

The Miners continue to deliver a bullish divergence to gold.

gdxhttp://postimg.org/image/x5ljcn6u7/

While gold was down today the Miners were up .63%. Monday was day 9 for the daily Miner cycle and the Miners were just 8 cents away from printing a higher daily cycle high. If they print a higher higher after today, that begins to shift the odds for this daily cycle to form in a right translated manner.

There was one other thing to note on the daily Miner chart today. There was a break of the declining TSI trend line. Of course we would like to see a clear and convincing break but this is a bullish signal for the daily cycle.

A Day Early but not a Dollar Short

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The dollar has a history of breaking through an important moving average only to reverse and trend the other way.

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The daily cycle low printed on 7/1/14 looks to be a trap. This fits well with May hosting the three year cycle low. The break of the upper trend line provides further evidence that May hosted the three year low.

But this is only part of the picture. This three year cycle is only part of a much larger cycle I term the 15 year Super Cycle.

The full report is available to subscribers.

I would like to make this report available here. The Special Dollar Report and a complementary 1 month subscription to the Likesmoney Premium Site is available for $30.

The complementary subscription will give you full access to the premium site. It includes:

1) The Weekend Report, which is posted usually Sunday mornings. It discusses Dollar, Stocks, Gold, Miners, The CRB Index, & Bonds in terms of daily, weekly and yearly cycles – Which includes the Likesmoney Cycle Tracker.

2)The Mid-Week Update. Posted on Wednesday’s– This is a review of the daily charts for the above mentioned asset classes.

3)Weekend Update look of the daily & weekly charts of Corn & DBA
4)Weekly Update of the Bullish Percentile Bingo
5) Frequent (just about daily) updates of my proprietary FAS Buy/Sell Indicator

The goal of the Weekend Report is to develop an on-going framework of expectations using cycle analysis.

I have also started a terminology section to explain some of the terms used.

For the Likesmoney Special Dollar Report and 1 Month Trial Subscription click here.

The 7/25/14 Weekend Report Preview

Editor’s note:
Stay tuned for an additional report on Sunday Night titled
” A Day Early But Not A Dollar Short”

On to the Weekend Report Review:

The Dollar
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The dollar printed higher highs during the week. Friday was day 17 and the dollar printed another higher high.

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A day 17 high has locked in a right translated nature to this daily cycle.

Stocks
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Entering this week the day 15 peak made it appear that a left translated cycle was forming. Stocks printed a new daily cycle high on Thursday pushing the daily cycle high out to day 29.

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A swing high formed on Friday. Stocks will enter the timing band to pring a daily cycle low next week. A break of the daily cycle trend line is required to confirm the daily cycle decline. However, Friday’s Buying on Weakness print suggests there will be one more push higher.

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The 200 million B.O.W. on the SPY along with the 408 million B.O.W. on the Russell indicate one more push higher. This dovetails into our cyclical expectation of seeing one more daily cycle that prints a higher high before rolling over.

The entire Weekend Report can be found at Likesmoney Subscription Services

The Weekend Report discusses Dollar, Stocks, Gold, Miners, The CRB Index, & Bonds in terms of daily, weekly and yearly cycles.
Also included in the Weekend Report is the Likesmoney CycleTracker

To subscribe: http://likesmoneysubscriptionservices.wordpress.com/

For subscribers: the full Weekend Report can be found at Likesmoney Subscription Services at http://likesmoney.wordpress.com/

You can email me at likesmoney@gmail.com to receive a sample copy of the Weekend Report

Pull Up A Chair …

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… and get comfortable, I have a few charts that I want to go over tonight.

Starting with gold:

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Gold broke below the day 29 low today. We speculated on either day 22 or day 29 as being the daily cycle low. Today makes either scenario result in a failed daily cycle.

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A weekly swing high formed two weeks ago and today’s action has caused a weekly trend line break which signals an intermediate cycle decline. So at week 7, gold faces another 11 – 14 weeks of trending lower.

Yesterday morning Mika commented,

“I think what we’re seeing is a stretched daily cycle which has yet to bottom, and still very much RT. We will soon see a monstrous rip to the upside once this 1st daily cycle in this new IC has bottomed.”

Trying to keep an open mind I decided to see if there is any evidence to support this scenario. Right away we can acknowledge that gold has seen (few) daily cycles extend past day 30. So it is a possibility here.

What is unfolding on the dollar could align with an extended daily cycle for gold.

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The dollar has been caught in a weekly consolidation since October. The dollar is testing the upper stem of the triangle. If the dollar has left behind a three year low in May, then this weekly consolidation should resolve bullishly.

Today was day 16 for the daily dollar cycle. The dollar is two days shy of entering its timing band for printing a daily cycle low. So the daily cycle is potentially aligned to decline as it is reaching the upper stem. And the dollar declining is generally bullish for gold …

Now let’s look at couple of things on gold’s daily chart that can still lead to an extended daily cycle.

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The two things in particular is the reversal off the 200 MA and the declining trend line. If gold loses the support of the 200 MA then the bullish case of an extended daily cycle begins to evaporate. But if that support holds then a break of the declining trend line would signal a new daily cycle.

And the Buying on Weakness Number for GDX supports an extended cycle scenario.

bow gdxhttp://postimg.org/image/b8v8wf4mp/

The Miners printed 137 million Buying on Weakness today. This is a big number for the Miners. This number is more characteristic of a major low instead of a failed cycle.

So a clear and convincing close below the 200 MA supports the bearish view of a failed daily cycle. But a swing low off of today’s reversal followed by a declining trend line break signals a new daily cycle.

Eye Popping

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Stocks delivered an eye-popping Selling on Strength print today.

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The 852 million S.O.S. is a big number. It is more like the type of number we see as we near an intermediate top.

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Stocks managed to print a higher daily cycle high today. At day 28 stocks are two days shy of entering the timing band to print a daily cycle low. Today’s S.O.S. suggests that we could see a strong move lower. But since a right translated daily cycle is virtually assured, we can expect to see a higher daily cycle low form and then the next daily cycle go on to print a higher daily cycle high.

The dollar also closed at a new daily cycle high today.

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A day 14 peak locks in a right translated nature to this daily cycle. Our framework has identified the May pivot as the 3 year cycle low. We are still awaiting confirmation of this. However, if the May pivot was the three year cycle low, then this triangle consolidation should resolve bullishly.

The 7/22/14 Report

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Stocks broke above the day 15 peak today setting a new daily cycle high.

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Tuesday was day 27 for the daily equity cycle. A break to new highs has firmly shifted this to a right translated daily cycle. That makes day 19 a half cycle low and causes us to redraw the daily cycle trend line.

And since we need a left translated, failed daily cycle to conclude this weekly cycle that means we will need one more daily cycle to unfold in the current intermediate cycle.

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Gold is getting close to decision time. Gold found support at the 50 day moving average and formed a 29 day daily cycle low. But gold has yet to break above the declining cycle trend line. If gold fails to break above the declining trend line we may be forced to reconsider day 22 as the daily cycle low.

Bonds may be ready for a daily cycle decline.

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Bonds printed a reversal candle on Monday. Then they formed a swing high today. Even though bonds closed higher, there was a very high 81 million Selling on Strength printed today. A break a below the daily cycle trend line will confirm a daily cycle decline.

Signs of Life

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Last Tuesday was day 31 of the daily cycle and the Miners printed a lower low. While day 31 is getting late in the timing band, the troubling thing about this daily cycle correction is that the Miners did not deliver a daily cycle trend line break.

GDX fridayhttp://postimg.org/image/lun5h9x2b/

After Tuesday’s low, the the Miners drifted higher into Friday and ran into resistance at the declining cycle trend line.

gdx todayhttp://postimg.org/image/ffo4klqcj/

Monday saw the Miners break above the declining cycle trend line. They did not do so in a clear and convincing fashion, but still this shows some signs of life. With each passing day it becomes more likely that the gap will be left behind. And if the Miners break above the day 28 high 27.78, that would confirm a new daily cycle.

The dollar may be ready to lend a hand.

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Friday was day 12 and the dollar printed a reversal candle. The dollar followed through on Monday by printing a swing high. A break below the daily cycle trend line would confirm a daily cycle decline.

And if the Miners begin to rally, a declining dollar could provide the wind beneath its wings.

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The 7/18/14 Weekend Report Preview

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The Dollar
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This week saw the dollar rebound off the daily cycle trend line. The dollar broke through both the 50 MA and the 200 MA printing a new daily cycle high on Friday.

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However, the reversal candle left behind on Friday suggests a daily cycle decline is imminent.

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Two points from the longer view daily chart:
1) The dollar is encroaching the upper stem of the triangle consolidation.
2) The True Strength Indicator has reached a level that has seen other daily cycles roll over.

Stocks
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The daily equity cycle peaked on day 15. It lost the day 10 MA as it declined into a half cycle low on day 19. The subsequent rally out of the half cycle low has failed to make a new daily cycle high.

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Stocks have been volatile since emerging from the half cycle low. The big down day on day 24 may have set the declining cycle trend line at day 23. Stocks are now five days shy of their timing band for a daily cycle low. If day 15 stands as the cycle peak, then it is quite likely that this cycle will result in a left translated failed daily cycle. A failed daily cycle should see stocks break below the previous daily cycle low of 1925.78.

The entire Weekend Report can be found at Likesmoney Subscription Services

The Weekend Report discusses Dollar, Stocks, Gold, Miners, The CRB Index, & Bonds in terms of daily, weekly and yearly cycles.

Also included in the Weekend Report is the Likesmoney CycleTracker

To subscribe: http://likesmoneysubscriptionservices.wordpress.com/

For subscribers: the full Weekend Report can be found at Likesmoney Subscription Services at http://likesmoney.wordpress.com/

You can email me at likesmoney@gmail.com to receive a sample copy of the Weekend Report

Gold Swing

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Gold formed a swing low today.

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Gold found support on Tuesday and Wednesday at the 50 day MA. Today gold formed a swing low that is quite likely the daily cycle low. A break above the previous daily cycle high of 1346.80 confirms today as day 2 of a new daily cycle.

The Miners also formed a swing low today.

gdxhttp://postimg.org/image/dcg66ntvf/

Unlike gold, the Miners did not break the daily cycle trend line before forming this swing low. Also keep in mind the unfilled gap at the 25.50 level. The Miners do have a tendency of backtesting a bottom combine this with the SOS printed today makes me think that we will see a back test of this swing low.

The daily equity cycle correction confirmed today.

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Thursday was day 24 for the daily equity cycle. The trend line break confirms the daily cycle decline. Since the day 15 stands as the daily cycle peak, that keeps alive the possibility that this decline will result in a left translated, failed daily cycle.

Which means that stocks are certainly not out of the woods yet.

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