The 10/24/14 Weekend Report Preview

The Dollar
$$$http://postimg.org/image/8jp4ugbcv/

The current daily cycle peaked on day 6 and formed a swing high on Friday day 7. That is in line with our expectation to see a left translated cycle form here.

1 $$$ dailyhttp://imageshack.com/a/img661/6946/NmJ48w.jpg

The dollar’s previous daily cycle peaked on day 8 and formed a daily cycle low on day 16. Wednesday saw the dollar break above the declining trend line to confirm a new daily cycle. Keep in mind that this weekly cycle is in the timing band for a weekly cycle low. We need to see a failed daily cycle to mark the weekly cycle decline. Failed daily cycles often times peak on or before day 8.

A loss of support at the 85.50 level will signal the daily cycle decline. A break below the (black) trend line confirms the daily cycle decline.

Stocks
stockshttp://postimg.org/image/69wujdu9x/

Stocks delivered a declining trend line break this week confirming a new daily cycle.

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Stocks tested the declining trend line on Tuesday, then struggled with it on Wednesday. Thursday saw stocks break above the declining trend line in a clear and convincing fashion and Friday saw more bullish follow through.

http://imageshack.com/a/img674/7198/mz6Auv.jpg

Friday was day 7 and stocks have confirmed a new daily cycle. Backing out our view of the daily chart we can see that stocks are currently at resistance at the convergence of the extended trend line and the 50 day MA. If stocks are rejected here, then we could seen another 6 to 7 weeks of downside. But if stocks can break through here, then this could indicate a new yearly cycle has begun.

The entire Weekend Report can be found at Likesmoney Subscription Services

The Weekend Report discusses Dollar, Stocks, Gold, Miners, The CRB Index, & Bonds in terms of daily, weekly and yearly cycles.
Also included in the Weekend Report is the Likesmoney CycleTracker

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Smoke em if you got em …

00 smoke themhttp://postimg.org/image/4bcodhvl3/

Tuesday night we discussed how stocks were close to confirming a new daily cycle but at the time, no cigar…

spxhttp://postimg.org/image/879bxcbzp/

Well today stocks broke above the declining trend line to confirm a new daily cycle. Stocks are emerging from a failed daily cycle. With last week being week 10, stocks have up to 7 to 11 more weeks before an intermediate cycle low is due. The failed daily cycle means that our expectation is to see left translated, failed daily cycles until an intermediate cycle low has formed. However, should stocks break to a new high then we will be forced to recgonize 10/15 as a shortened intermediate cycle low.

Bonds continued lower today.

tlthttp://postimg.org/image/djy6bgzw5/

Thursday was day 26 for the daily bond cycle. Bonds are moving into the later stages of their timing band to print a daily cycle low. The bullish reversal today off the September high could mark a daily cycle low. A break above 120.18 forms a swing low and quite possibly the daily cycle low.

Bonds are in month 10 of their yearly cycle. So bonds have entered their timing band for a yearly cycle low, as well. A failed daily cycle and a failed weekly cycle is needed to mark the yearly cycle decline. Therefore our expectation is to see the new daily cycle form in a left translated manner, peaking by day 8. Then rolling over into a failed daily cycle.

Trend Line Break

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The dollar broke above the declining trend line signaling a new daily cycle.

$$$http://postimg.org/image/jm21frq09/

Since the daily cycle count has not been clear, we still need to see a break above 86.13 to form a daily swing low and confirm a new daily cycle.

Last week was week 22 for the intermediate dollar cycle. Since the dollar has yet to print a failed daily cycle during this intermediate cycle, our expectation is to see this new daily cycle fail.

Gold also printed a trend line break today.

goldhttp://postimg.org/image/f1fv0u6ax/

Wednesday was day 12 for the daily gold cycle. Gold’s daily cycle peaked on Tuesday, breaking just above the declining 50 day MA. Gold lost the 50 day MA today as it formed a swing high. Gold also delivered a trend line break which signals a daily cycle decline. While gold does sport a day 11 cycle peak, that does not insure that this daily cycle will not fail.

More of a Nudge …

0http://postimg.org/image/45f0gtdxl/

In last night’s post, When Push Comes to Shove, we discussed that gold needs a shove to either declare a new daily cycle high or commit to a daily cycle decline.

Instead of a shove, we go more of a nudge. Let’s take a look.

goldhttp://postimg.org/image/lu9gsz6s3/

Gold managed to rally enough to close above the declining 50 day moving average. While that was not a clear and convincing move, here is what it did.

It has shifted the daily cycle high from day 7 out to day 11. This shift dramatically increases the likelihood that this daily cycle will form as a right translated cycle. Which means that this would be the first daily cycle of a new intermediate cycle.

So let’s see what this looks like on the weekly chart.

gold weeklyhttp://postimg.org/image/by8dtc103/

Gold printed its lowest point on week 18 and then went on to break above the declining weekly trend line. Gold then formed a weekly swing low last week. And this week (so far) gold is delivering more bullish follow through.

This is looking more and more like an intermediate low has been left behind for gold. And if an intermediate low has been left behind, then there is a good chance that a yearly cycle low has been left behind as well.

Meanwhile, stocks came close to confirming a new daily cycle.

spxhttp://postimg.org/image/6l8xe61x9/

Stocks printed its lowest point last Wednesday, day 48. Since then stocks have formed a swing low and now has rallied 4 straight days. We are looking for a clear and convincing break of the declining trend line before we declare a new daily cycle.

Today was close, but no cigar.

00http://postimg.org/image/f6003wh03/

When Push Comes to Shove

0http://postimg.org/image/lqtfhxxkr/

It looks like we are getting to a point with gold where push comes to shove.

1 goldhttp://postimg.org/image/o06w47ycr/

We are still waiting to see if gold is through with its intermediate cycle decline. A right translated daily cycle would signal a new intermediate cycle. Right translated cycles typically rally past day 12. So far, gold has peaked on day 7. Since then it has drifted sideways. Today gold was halted by the declining 50 day MA. Regaining the 50 day MA would be a bullish signal shifting the likelihood of this daily cycle forming in a right translated manner. If gold is rejected by the 50 day MA here, then we will likely see gold go on to print a failed daily cycle.

The dollar is also approaching a point where push comes to shove.

$$$http://postimg.org/image/asi5zr8zf/

The intermediate dollar cycle peaked in early October. It has drifted lower since then. The dollar has done a masterful job obscuring its daily cycle count. A break above the declining trend line here would signal that Wednesday was the daily cycle low. A break lower here would see the dollar continue into its intermediate cycle low.

Miner Problems

00http://postimg.org/image/atblxglcx/

The bullish reversal printed the previous week broke above the declining trend line signaling a new daily cycle.

41 miners dailyhttp://postimg.org/image/6nm3lecdr/

The Miners have not yet formed a daily swing low, which is concerning. Since that bullish reversal the Miners have drifted sideways. They printed the highest point since the bullish reversal on Wednesday. The Miners drifted lower on Thursday and made a bearish break on Friday. This is beginning to look a lot like the high volume reversal from last year.

40 gdxhttp://postimg.org/image/ui51k1zjh/

Last year the Miners printed a high volume surge that reversed in a few days, leading to a failed daily cycle.

00gdxhttp://postimg.org/image/q47i00p3d/

Back to the current chart. The Miners formed a swing high off of Wednesday’s candle. The bearish follow through on Friday was accompanied by a bearish TSI crossover which signals that the daily cycle is in decline. At day 9, the Miners have another 2 to 3 weeks before finding their daily cycle low.

One metal has already printed a failed daily cycle.

pallhttp://postimg.org/image/qxvs117bn/

Palladium often leads the precious metals sector. Palladium’s daily cycle peaked on day 2, where it was rejected by the 200 day MA. A swing high formed the following day. On Wednesday Palladium reversed off the declining trend line and Thursday saw Palladium break below the previous daily cycle low, forming a failed daily cycle.

As we stated that Palladium often leads the precious metals sector. With the Miners printing that bearish break on Friday, it seems that the are destined to follow suit.

The 10/17/14 Weekend Report Preview

The Dollar
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The daily cycle count is still unclear. If Wednesday marked the daily cycle low, then either count does not result in a failed daily cycle.

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A failed daily cycle is required to complete the intermediate cycle decline. Regardless of the cycle count, a break above the declining trend line will signal a new daily cycle. The new cycle should peak on or before day 8 and then continue down into an intermediate cycle low.

Stocks
stockshttp://postimg.org/image/69wujdu9x/

The daily equity cycle peaked on 9/19 which was day 30. Stocks proceeded to decline through Wednesday, day 48, when stocks printed a bullish reversal.

http://imageshack.com/a/img674/3740/NvaNtc.jpg

Stocks printed a swing low on Thursday and then delivered a clear and convincing follow through day on Friday to confirm a new daily cycle. Between 9/19 and 10/16 stocks printed an incredible $4019 million in Buying on Weakness which is one of the reasons that lead me to believe that stocks not only left behind a daily cycle low, but an intermediate cycle low as well. Other reasons why I think that an intermediate low was left behind is discussed in the Weekend Report.

The entire Weekend Report can be found at Likesmoney Subscription Services

The Weekend Report discusses Dollar, Stocks, Gold, Miners, The CRB Index, & Bonds in terms of daily, weekly and yearly cycles.
Also included in the Weekend Report is the Likesmoney CycleTracker

To subscribe: http://likesmoneysubscriptionservices.wordpress.com/

For subscribers click here.

You can email me at likesmoney@gmail.com to receive a sample copy of the Weekend Report

The 10/17/14 Morning Update

000http://postimg.org/image/wf5ec101b/

Stocks managed to form a swing low on Thursday, barely.

spx swinghttp://postimg.org/image/5bvdb7p8z/

Stocks are deep in their timing band for a daily cycle low. A swing low has good odds of marking the daily cycle low. We would like to see a more clear and convincing swing low before we label this a daily cycle low.

nashttp://postimg.org/image/fn2mdk4b1/

The NASDAQ also managed to form a weak swing low. Once again we need to see a more clear and convincing swing low here as well.

ibbhttp://postimg.org/image/iz1fjfjbn/

Biotech, one of the leading sectors, delivered a strong bullish reversal. That bullish reversal found support at the 200 MA and was followed by a clear and convincing swing low. So it appears that Biotech printed a daily cycle low.

russhttp://postimg.org/image/alvqork43/

The Russell also delivered a strong bullish reversal followed by a clear and convincing swing low that allows us to label Wednesday as a daily cycle low.

tlthttp://postimg.org/image/tcxnyxeoj/

Bonds formed a swing high. Thursday was day 22 for the daily bond cycle. The swing high following the massive bearish reversal signals the daily cycle decline. Bonds are already in their timing band to print a daily cycle low. Bonds should print a daily cycle low over the next 5 days that breaks below the daily cycle trend line.

So both stocks and bonds have formed swings. Now we need to see some follow through.

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Poised for Reversal

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The bullish reversal on day 48 has a good chance of marking the daily cycle low.

spx dailyhttp://postimg.org/image/fs0i3z0ll/

A break above 1874 forms a daily swing low. Then a break of the declining trend line will confirm a new daily cycle. The hugh BOW numbers suggest that this could possibly be a shortened intermediate low forming.

Bonds are in their timing band to print a daily cycle low.

tlt dailyhttp://postimg.org/image/4gxufltqh/

The bearish reversal that printed today likely will mark the cycle peak. A break below 121.84 forms a daily swing high and then a break of the daily cycle trend line confirms a daily cycle decline. A peak on day 20 locks in a right translated nature to this daily cycle and we can expect the next daily cycle to print a higher daily cycle high.

Decision Time for Gold

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Gold has formed a weekly swing low this week.

gold weeklyhttp://postimg.org/image/owbi9xksl/

Last week was week 18 and gold printed a lower weekly low. At 18 weeks, gold has entered its timing band for an intermediate cycle low. But there is enough time in the timing band for gold to print one more failed daily cycle. So we need to turn our attention to gold’s daily cycle to see if it is forming in a left or right translated manner.

goldhttp://postimg.org/image/rrolgsosl/

Tuesday was day 6 for the daily gold cycle. While gold did manage to print a higher high, gold did close lower for the day. Gold is getting close to decision time for this daily cycle. Right translated daily cycles typically rally past day 8, so that is something that we are keeping an eye on. The other thing that we are watching is the declining 50 day MA. If gold can regain the 50 day MA that would be a bullish signal that would indicate a new intermediate cycle is underway. Consequently rejection by the declining 50 day MA would indicate a left translated cycle is forming.

The CRB appears may be finding its footing.

crbhttp://postimg.org/image/j6v9pmemd/

Tuesday was day 15 for the CRB’s daily cycle. While the CRB printed a lower low, it also reversed and closed higher for the day. This has eased the parameters for forming a swing low. The CRB will not enter its timing band for a daily cycle low for 3 more days but after 5 consecutive failed daily cycles I would not be surprised by a shortened daily cycle. A break above 276.91 forms a swing low and then break above the declining trend line would confirm a new daily cycle.