When Push Comes to Shove

0http://postimg.org/image/lqtfhxxkr/

It looks like we are getting to a point with gold where push comes to shove.

1 goldhttp://postimg.org/image/o06w47ycr/

We are still waiting to see if gold is through with its intermediate cycle decline. A right translated daily cycle would signal a new intermediate cycle. Right translated cycles typically rally past day 12. So far, gold has peaked on day 7. Since then it has drifted sideways. Today gold was halted by the declining 50 day MA. Regaining the 50 day MA would be a bullish signal shifting the likelihood of this daily cycle forming in a right translated manner. If gold is rejected by the 50 day MA here, then we will likely see gold go on to print a failed daily cycle.

The dollar is also approaching a point where push comes to shove.

$$$http://postimg.org/image/asi5zr8zf/

The intermediate dollar cycle peaked in early October. It has drifted lower since then. The dollar has done a masterful job obscuring its daily cycle count. A break above the declining trend line here would signal that Wednesday was the daily cycle low. A break lower here would see the dollar continue into its intermediate cycle low.

Miner Problems

00http://postimg.org/image/atblxglcx/

The bullish reversal printed the previous week broke above the declining trend line signaling a new daily cycle.

41 miners dailyhttp://postimg.org/image/6nm3lecdr/

The Miners have not yet formed a daily swing low, which is concerning. Since that bullish reversal the Miners have drifted sideways. They printed the highest point since the bullish reversal on Wednesday. The Miners drifted lower on Thursday and made a bearish break on Friday. This is beginning to look a lot like the high volume reversal from last year.

40 gdxhttp://postimg.org/image/ui51k1zjh/

Last year the Miners printed a high volume surge that reversed in a few days, leading to a failed daily cycle.

00gdxhttp://postimg.org/image/q47i00p3d/

Back to the current chart. The Miners formed a swing high off of Wednesday’s candle. The bearish follow through on Friday was accompanied by a bearish TSI crossover which signals that the daily cycle is in decline. At day 9, the Miners have another 2 to 3 weeks before finding their daily cycle low.

One metal has already printed a failed daily cycle.

pallhttp://postimg.org/image/qxvs117bn/

Palladium often leads the precious metals sector. Palladium’s daily cycle peaked on day 2, where it was rejected by the 200 day MA. A swing high formed the following day. On Wednesday Palladium reversed off the declining trend line and Thursday saw Palladium break below the previous daily cycle low, forming a failed daily cycle.

As we stated that Palladium often leads the precious metals sector. With the Miners printing that bearish break on Friday, it seems that the are destined to follow suit.

The 10/17/14 Weekend Report Preview

The Dollar
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The daily cycle count is still unclear. If Wednesday marked the daily cycle low, then either count does not result in a failed daily cycle.

http://imageshack.com/a/img540/5186/L78a1r.jpg

A failed daily cycle is required to complete the intermediate cycle decline. Regardless of the cycle count, a break above the declining trend line will signal a new daily cycle. The new cycle should peak on or before day 8 and then continue down into an intermediate cycle low.

Stocks
stockshttp://postimg.org/image/69wujdu9x/

The daily equity cycle peaked on 9/19 which was day 30. Stocks proceeded to decline through Wednesday, day 48, when stocks printed a bullish reversal.

http://imageshack.com/a/img674/3740/NvaNtc.jpg

Stocks printed a swing low on Thursday and then delivered a clear and convincing follow through day on Friday to confirm a new daily cycle. Between 9/19 and 10/16 stocks printed an incredible $4019 million in Buying on Weakness which is one of the reasons that lead me to believe that stocks not only left behind a daily cycle low, but an intermediate cycle low as well. Other reasons why I think that an intermediate low was left behind is discussed in the Weekend Report.

The entire Weekend Report can be found at Likesmoney Subscription Services

The Weekend Report discusses Dollar, Stocks, Gold, Miners, The CRB Index, & Bonds in terms of daily, weekly and yearly cycles.
Also included in the Weekend Report is the Likesmoney CycleTracker

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You can email me at likesmoney@gmail.com to receive a sample copy of the Weekend Report

The 10/17/14 Morning Update

000http://postimg.org/image/wf5ec101b/

Stocks managed to form a swing low on Thursday, barely.

spx swinghttp://postimg.org/image/5bvdb7p8z/

Stocks are deep in their timing band for a daily cycle low. A swing low has good odds of marking the daily cycle low. We would like to see a more clear and convincing swing low before we label this a daily cycle low.

nashttp://postimg.org/image/fn2mdk4b1/

The NASDAQ also managed to form a weak swing low. Once again we need to see a more clear and convincing swing low here as well.

ibbhttp://postimg.org/image/iz1fjfjbn/

Biotech, one of the leading sectors, delivered a strong bullish reversal. That bullish reversal found support at the 200 MA and was followed by a clear and convincing swing low. So it appears that Biotech printed a daily cycle low.

russhttp://postimg.org/image/alvqork43/

The Russell also delivered a strong bullish reversal followed by a clear and convincing swing low that allows us to label Wednesday as a daily cycle low.

tlthttp://postimg.org/image/tcxnyxeoj/

Bonds formed a swing high. Thursday was day 22 for the daily bond cycle. The swing high following the massive bearish reversal signals the daily cycle decline. Bonds are already in their timing band to print a daily cycle low. Bonds should print a daily cycle low over the next 5 days that breaks below the daily cycle trend line.

So both stocks and bonds have formed swings. Now we need to see some follow through.

00http://postimg.org/image/8a76bqdb9/

Poised for Reversal

00http://postimg.org/image/41mkml7t5/

The bullish reversal on day 48 has a good chance of marking the daily cycle low.

spx dailyhttp://postimg.org/image/fs0i3z0ll/

A break above 1874 forms a daily swing low. Then a break of the declining trend line will confirm a new daily cycle. The hugh BOW numbers suggest that this could possibly be a shortened intermediate low forming.

Bonds are in their timing band to print a daily cycle low.

tlt dailyhttp://postimg.org/image/4gxufltqh/

The bearish reversal that printed today likely will mark the cycle peak. A break below 121.84 forms a daily swing high and then a break of the daily cycle trend line confirms a daily cycle decline. A peak on day 20 locks in a right translated nature to this daily cycle and we can expect the next daily cycle to print a higher daily cycle high.

Decision Time for Gold

0http://postimg.org/image/7l4a79i91/

Gold has formed a weekly swing low this week.

gold weeklyhttp://postimg.org/image/owbi9xksl/

Last week was week 18 and gold printed a lower weekly low. At 18 weeks, gold has entered its timing band for an intermediate cycle low. But there is enough time in the timing band for gold to print one more failed daily cycle. So we need to turn our attention to gold’s daily cycle to see if it is forming in a left or right translated manner.

goldhttp://postimg.org/image/rrolgsosl/

Tuesday was day 6 for the daily gold cycle. While gold did manage to print a higher high, gold did close lower for the day. Gold is getting close to decision time for this daily cycle. Right translated daily cycles typically rally past day 8, so that is something that we are keeping an eye on. The other thing that we are watching is the declining 50 day MA. If gold can regain the 50 day MA that would be a bullish signal that would indicate a new intermediate cycle is underway. Consequently rejection by the declining 50 day MA would indicate a left translated cycle is forming.

The CRB appears may be finding its footing.

crbhttp://postimg.org/image/j6v9pmemd/

Tuesday was day 15 for the CRB’s daily cycle. While the CRB printed a lower low, it also reversed and closed higher for the day. This has eased the parameters for forming a swing low. The CRB will not enter its timing band for a daily cycle low for 3 more days but after 5 consecutive failed daily cycles I would not be surprised by a shortened daily cycle. A break above 276.91 forms a swing low and then break above the declining trend line would confirm a new daily cycle.

Failure …

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The S&P and the NASDAQ both broke below their previous daily cycle lows today, producing failed daily cycles. They join the Russell, which failed in late September.

Failed Daily Cycleshttp://postimg.org/image/hvfijmgbh/

A failed daily cycle leads to an intermediate cycle decline.

weekly spxhttp://postimg.org/image/6p3hgwil3/

The current intermediate equity cycle peaked on week 6. A weekly swing high formed on week 7 and a trend line break occurred in week 8. There was a clear and convincing bearish follow through last week. Today saw stocks break below the 50 week MA. Stocks also broke below the previous weekly low today confirming a yearly cycle decline. With the weekly cycle count at 10 weeks there is time for one to two more failed daily cycles before an intermediate cycle low is due.

However, the Buying on Weakness numbers have me wondering if something more significant is occurring.

Day 46http://postimg.org/image/k9ijk8exf/

There has been over 2.23 Billion Buying on Weakness since this daily cycle peaked on September 19th. I commented last week that we were seeing the type of BOW numbers usually seen at intermediate cycle lows. With today’s BOW of 500 million I decided to check.

spx sos 2http://postimg.org/image/rmx2425vz/

There was 1.48 billion in Buying on Weakness that printed going into the August intermediate cycle low. So already the BOW numbers for this decline has surpassed the the decline into the previous intermediate low by over 50%, which is significant. So I decided to compare the BOW numbers to the last yearly cycle decline.

sos 2012http://postimg.org/image/youzq99hr/

The last yearly cycle decline occurred in June, 2012. The BOW numbers that printed as stocks declined into that yearly low was 1.12 billion.

So the BOW weakness number that we have seen so far is over double that of the previous yearly cycle decline. At day 46, the daily cycle is currently late in its timing band to print a daily cycle low. I suspect that we will see a daily cycle low form this week. While stocks still have another 8 – 12 weeks before an intermediate low is due the BOW numbers seem to indicate an intermediate low is at hand.

The 10/10/14 Weekend Report Preview

The Dollar
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The dollar has shot up like a rocket since July. Finally the dollar printed a trend line break on Wednesday that signaled a daily cycle decline.

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We can see that the other daily cycle corrections during this ascent took the dollar back to the 20 day MA. Currently the dollar has retraced to the 20 MA, which coincides with the previous three year cycle peak.

1 $$$ dailyhttp://postimg.org/image/84a3wytlp/

If day 31 was a shallow daily cycle low that would mean that this current daily cycle peaked on day 8 and should now be declining into a failed daily cycle.

The bullish reversal on Thursday followed by the swing low on Friday indicate that the dollar was in an extended daily cycle, like gold. Since the weekly cycle is at week 22 we can expect to see this new daily cycle peak on or before day 8 before rolling over into an intermediate cycle decline.

Stocks
stockshttp://postimg.org/image/69wujdu9x/

Friday was day 45 for the daily equity cycle. Stocks are in the latter part of their timing band to print a daily cycle low. The cumulative Buying on Weakness numbers of over 1.73 billion indicate a cycle low is at hand.

1 spxhttp://postimg.org/image/srzkkeuu7/

Stocks are currently less than 2 points away from printing a failed daily cycle. A break below 1904.78 forms a failed daily cycle confirming an intermediate cycle decline. The Weekend Report will discuss the signals of the intermediate cycle decline and the status of the yearly equity cycle.

The entire Weekend Report can be found at Likesmoney Subscription Services

The Weekend Report discusses Dollar, Stocks, Gold, Miners, The CRB Index, & Bonds in terms of daily, weekly and yearly cycles.
Also included in the Weekend Report is the Likesmoney CycleTracker

To subscribe: http://likesmoneysubscriptionservices.wordpress.com/

For subscribers click here.

You can email me at likesmoney@gmail.com to receive a sample copy of the Weekend Report

Back to the Mail Bag

00<http://postimg.org/image/pt6hps777/

An email from one of my subscribers, Brad, asked this question.

"LM if gold has been on an extended daily cycle could it be possible that the dollar is on an extended daily cycle as well"

Let's take a look.

1 $$$http://postimg.org/image/yph9tpxtf/

Currently we have the dollar’s daily cycle peaking on day 8 with today being day 12. A peak on or before day 8 is typical of a left translated cycle that is destined to fail. Considering that the dollar is on week 22 and due for an intermediate cycle decline a labeling of a peak on day 8 fits that framework.

2 $$$http://postimg.org/image/618x48l0z/

But what if, like gold, the dollar is on an extended daily cycle. Then the dollar peaked on day 39 which makes today day 43. Granted this is a possibility. But when we back the dollar out some more this becomes easier to consider.

3 $$$http://postimg.org/image/c6oo1x9l1/

We see that the dollar is currently backtesting the previous three year cycle high. An extended right translated daily cycle should only have a brief decline. So if the dollar prints a swing low we will be forced to consider this as an extended daily cycle. And if that is the case, then our expectation would be to see the new daily quickly break to a new high and then roll over into an intermediate cycle decline.

Meanwhile we have no confirmation of a daily cycle low yet for stocks.

spxhttp://postimg.org/image/88d5s5qb7/

The daily equity cycle peaked on day 30. Stocks printed there lowest point since then on Wednesday, which was day 43. Stocks are starting to get to the latter part of there timing band for a daily cycle low. We are still waiting on a swing low and a trend line break to confirm a new daily cycle. A brake above 1970.36 forms a swing low.

Reversal Time

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The bearish follow through today confirms the dollar’s daily cycle decline.

$$$http://postimg.org/image/nmgl1btsz/

With a daily cycle count of day 11, the dollar could see up to 3 more weeks of downside.

The Miners printed a massive bullish today.

GDXhttp://postimg.org/image/w5zyz325f/

Today’s huge reversal occurred deep in its timing band on hugh volume. It also delivered a declining trend line break to signal a new daily cycle. A break above 22.16 forms a swing low and confirms a new daily cycle.