Pull Up A Chair …

00

… and get comfortable, I have a few charts that I want to go over tonight.

Starting with gold:

$ GOLD Sharp Charts Workbench Stock Charts comhttp://postimg.org/image/ywjn0974n/

Gold broke below the day 29 low today. We speculated on either day 22 or day 29 as being the daily cycle low. Today makes either scenario result in a failed daily cycle.

Weekly Goldhttp://postimg.org/image/6hvdeebsh/

A weekly swing high formed two weeks ago and today’s action has caused a weekly trend line break which signals an intermediate cycle decline. So at week 7, gold faces another 11 – 14 weeks of trending lower.

Yesterday morning Mika commented,

“I think what we’re seeing is a stretched daily cycle which has yet to bottom, and still very much RT. We will soon see a monstrous rip to the upside once this 1st daily cycle in this new IC has bottomed.”

Trying to keep an open mind I decided to see if there is any evidence to support this scenario. Right away we can acknowledge that gold has seen (few) daily cycles extend past day 30. So it is a possibility here.

What is unfolding on the dollar could align with an extended daily cycle for gold.

$$$ weeklyhttp://postimg.org/image/swd1umek1/

The dollar has been caught in a weekly consolidation since October. The dollar is testing the upper stem of the triangle. If the dollar has left behind a three year low in May, then this weekly consolidation should resolve bullishly.

Today was day 16 for the daily dollar cycle. The dollar is two days shy of entering its timing band for printing a daily cycle low. So the daily cycle is potentially aligned to decline as it is reaching the upper stem. And the dollar declining is generally bullish for gold …

Now let’s look at couple of things on gold’s daily chart that can still lead to an extended daily cycle.

gold extendedhttp://postimg.org/image/xdmmzvfyl/

The two things in particular is the reversal off the 200 MA and the declining trend line. If gold loses the support of the 200 MA then the bullish case of an extended daily cycle begins to evaporate. But if that support holds then a break of the declining trend line would signal a new daily cycle.

And the Buying on Weakness Number for GDX supports an extended cycle scenario.

bow gdxhttp://postimg.org/image/b8v8wf4mp/

The Miners printed 137 million Buying on Weakness today. This is a big number for the Miners. This number is more characteristic of a major low instead of a failed cycle.

So a clear and convincing close below the 200 MA supports the bearish view of a failed daily cycle. But a swing low off of today’s reversal followed by a declining trend line break signals a new daily cycle.

Eye Popping

00http://postimg.org/image/rr5cis29n/

Stocks delivered an eye-popping Selling on Strength print today.

soshttp://postimg.org/image/c6og9w8z9/

The 852 million S.O.S. is a big number. It is more like the type of number we see as we near an intermediate top.

spxhttp://postimg.org/image/vahrq8lth/

Stocks managed to print a higher daily cycle high today. At day 28 stocks are two days shy of entering the timing band to print a daily cycle low. Today’s S.O.S. suggests that we could see a strong move lower. But since a right translated daily cycle is virtually assured, we can expect to see a higher daily cycle low form and then the next daily cycle go on to print a higher daily cycle high.

The dollar also closed at a new daily cycle high today.

$$$
windows 7 screenshot

http://postimg.org/image/a4qogdfdp/

A day 14 peak locks in a right translated nature to this daily cycle. Our framework has identified the May pivot as the 3 year cycle low. We are still awaiting confirmation of this. However, if the May pivot was the three year cycle low, then this triangle consolidation should resolve bullishly.

The 7/22/14 Report

0http://postimg.org/image/m4d633pqj/

Stocks broke above the day 15 peak today setting a new daily cycle high.

spxhttp://postimg.org/image/njx4anf9p/

Tuesday was day 27 for the daily equity cycle. A break to new highs has firmly shifted this to a right translated daily cycle. That makes day 19 a half cycle low and causes us to redraw the daily cycle trend line.

And since we need a left translated, failed daily cycle to conclude this weekly cycle that means we will need one more daily cycle to unfold in the current intermediate cycle.

goldhttp://postimg.org/image/4j3ssk7x9/

Gold is getting close to decision time. Gold found support at the 50 day moving average and formed a 29 day daily cycle low. But gold has yet to break above the declining cycle trend line. If gold fails to break above the declining trend line we may be forced to reconsider day 22 as the daily cycle low.

Bonds may be ready for a daily cycle decline.

tlthttp://postimg.org/image/8mo6kcytv/

Bonds printed a reversal candle on Monday. Then they formed a swing high today. Even though bonds closed higher, there was a very high 81 million Selling on Strength printed today. A break a below the daily cycle trend line will confirm a daily cycle decline.

Signs of Life

0 signshttp://postimg.org/image/agcrucd4h/

Last Tuesday was day 31 of the daily cycle and the Miners printed a lower low. While day 31 is getting late in the timing band, the troubling thing about this daily cycle correction is that the Miners did not deliver a daily cycle trend line break.

GDX fridayhttp://postimg.org/image/lun5h9x2b/

After Tuesday’s low, the the Miners drifted higher into Friday and ran into resistance at the declining cycle trend line.

gdx todayhttp://postimg.org/image/ffo4klqcj/

Monday saw the Miners break above the declining cycle trend line. They did not do so in a clear and convincing fashion, but still this shows some signs of life. With each passing day it becomes more likely that the gap will be left behind. And if the Miners break above the day 28 high 27.78, that would confirm a new daily cycle.

The dollar may be ready to lend a hand.

$$$http://postimg.org/image/rfsj6s84b/

Friday was day 12 and the dollar printed a reversal candle. The dollar followed through on Monday by printing a swing high. A break below the daily cycle trend line would confirm a daily cycle decline.

And if the Miners begin to rally, a declining dollar could provide the wind beneath its wings.

99http://postimg.org/image/dm1f9z6ob/

The 7/18/14 Weekend Report Preview

up arrow

The Dollar
$$$http://postimg.org/image/8jp4ugbcv/

This week saw the dollar rebound off the daily cycle trend line. The dollar broke through both the 50 MA and the 200 MA printing a new daily cycle high on Friday.

http://imageshack.com/a/img673/5540/83bff7.jpg

However, the reversal candle left behind on Friday suggests a daily cycle decline is imminent.

http://imageshack.com/a/img745/7638/ee49ed.jpg

Two points from the longer view daily chart:
1) The dollar is encroaching the upper stem of the triangle consolidation.
2) The True Strength Indicator has reached a level that has seen other daily cycles roll over.

Stocks
Free Image Hosting at www.ImageShack.us

The daily equity cycle peaked on day 15. It lost the day 10 MA as it declined into a half cycle low on day 19. The subsequent rally out of the half cycle low has failed to make a new daily cycle high.

http://imageshack.com/a/img536/3758/db592e.jpg

Stocks have been volatile since emerging from the half cycle low. The big down day on day 24 may have set the declining cycle trend line at day 23. Stocks are now five days shy of their timing band for a daily cycle low. If day 15 stands as the cycle peak, then it is quite likely that this cycle will result in a left translated failed daily cycle. A failed daily cycle should see stocks break below the previous daily cycle low of 1925.78.

The entire Weekend Report can be found at Likesmoney Subscription Services

The Weekend Report discusses Dollar, Stocks, Gold, Miners, The CRB Index, & Bonds in terms of daily, weekly and yearly cycles.

Also included in the Weekend Report is the Likesmoney CycleTracker

To subscribe: http://likesmoneysubscriptionservices.wordpress.com/

For subscribers: the full Weekend Report can be found at Likesmoney Subscription Services at http://likesmoney.wordpress.com/

You can email me at likesmoney@gmail.com to receive a sample copy of the Weekend Report

Gold Swing

000
upload a gif

http://postimg.org/image/h47y7205p/

Gold formed a swing low today.

goldhttp://postimg.org/image/7mzxmcnp7/

Gold found support on Tuesday and Wednesday at the 50 day MA. Today gold formed a swing low that is quite likely the daily cycle low. A break above the previous daily cycle high of 1346.80 confirms today as day 2 of a new daily cycle.

The Miners also formed a swing low today.

gdxhttp://postimg.org/image/dcg66ntvf/

Unlike gold, the Miners did not break the daily cycle trend line before forming this swing low. Also keep in mind the unfilled gap at the 25.50 level. The Miners do have a tendency of backtesting a bottom combine this with the SOS printed today makes me think that we will see a back test of this swing low.

The daily equity cycle correction confirmed today.

spxhttp://postimg.org/image/ajmymmtiz/

Thursday was day 24 for the daily equity cycle. The trend line break confirms the daily cycle decline. Since the day 15 stands as the daily cycle peak, that keeps alive the possibility that this decline will result in a left translated, failed daily cycle.

Which means that stocks are certainly not out of the woods yet.

99 woodshttp://postimg.org/image/ajmymmtiz/

Proceed With Caution

http://imageshack.com/a/img540/3460/89708f.jpg

Wednesday was day 23 and stocks have yet to break above the day 15 peak.

http://imageshack.com/a/img661/5134/8872ea.jpg

The intermediate equity cycle stands at week 23. Because stocks are beginning to get to the latter part of the timing band for an intermediate cycle low we are on alert for a left translated daily cycle forming which will signal the intermediate cycle decline.

Failure to print a new daily cycle high holds the door open for a left translated cycle still forming here.

The Selling on Strength is also giving warning signals.

http://imageshack.com/a/img538/7530/0aa4d7.jpg

Stocks printed a big 226 million selling on strength today. That follows a respectable 184 million SOS day on July 2nd. These are beginning to look like the type of numbers that I expect to see near an intermediate cycle top.

Meanwhile gold could be finding support.


http://imageshack.com/a/img904/716/76a25a.jpg

A break above 1314.50 forms a daily swing low. Should that happen gold would form a swing low in a support zone where the 50 day MA held as support. This is a bullish scenario that points to Monday being day 29.

And if Monday was day 29 then gold formed a right translated daily cycle that sets the expectation of the next daily cycle printing a higher high.

Delivered a Signal

http://imageshack.com/a/img904/4599/42fdad.jpg

The Miners delivered a signal and printed a huge Buying On Weakness today.

http://imageshack.com/a/img631/1091/40cc61.jpg

I want to remind you of the last time a big number printed on the BOW/SOS was on 7/11/14 when the Junior Miners printed a big 77 million Selling on Strength. The Juniors proceeded to drop over 9% on Monday and Tuesday.

http://imageshack.com/a/img539/6676/4d499d.jpg

The big BOW signals that the Miners are on day 31 instead of day 5. A reversal after a trend line break and gap fill at the 25.14 level would signal a new daily cycle

It would also signal that it is time to release the hounds

http://imageshack.com/a/img631/2542/6f94d4.jpg

Same Dilemma …

0http://postimg.org/image/yieazajlp/

Gold was hammered and lost over 30 points in the pre-market.

1 am goldhttp://postimg.org/image/8hftwkrnp/

We discussed two the concerns regarding gold in the Weekend Report.
1) That gold has not delivered a clear and convincing trend line break so Friday was either day 5 or day 27.
2) Friday’s SOS on the Junior Miners possibly indicating that gold’s decline was still imminent

1 gold daiklyhttp://postimg.org/image/bi7nmylrx/

Today’s drop did not see a trend line break but one should be forth coming but the SOS by the Juniors on Friday was prescient. So assuming we get a clear and convincing trend line break here, it seems that we are faced with the same dilemma, is gold on day 6 or day 28.

If gold is on day 28, then it is getting late in its timing band and a daily cycle low should occur sooner than later. Today’s decline stopped just shy of a support zone as well as breaching the daily cycle trend line. Over the next few days if gold can breach the daily cycle trend line and form a bullish reversal off the rising 50 day MA, then the possibility exists that this was an extended daily cycle and a stop can be placed just below the 50 MA..

However if day 22 was the daily cycle low then that makes Monday day 6.

2 gold 22 RThttp://postimg.org/image/67zahji31/

And if Monday was day 6, then gold has formed a failed daily cycle. A failed daily cycle would signal that the intermediate cycle is in decline. And at week 6, that leaves 12 – 16 weeks for gold to seek out its intermediate low.

So, if this intermediate cycle is still in ascent then the 50 & 200 MA should act as support during this daily cycle decline. If gold loses these two moving averages, then it is likely that the intermediate decline has begun.

The 7/11/14 Weekend Report Preview

up arrow

The Dollar

$$$http://postimg.org/image/8jp4ugbcv/

The dollar left behind a long upper shadow last Friday, which was day 2. After losing both the 200 day MA and the 50 day MA early this week the dollar certainly looked poised to deliver a failed daily cycle.

http://imageshack.com/a/img841/5710/87xl.jpg

But instead of failing, the dollar managed to rally the last two days of the week. So instead of a failed daily cycle, the dollar looks like it set its daily cycle trend line.

Stocks

Free Image Hosting at www.ImageShack.us

At 22 weeks stocks are in their timing band for a intermediate low. Therefore we are on alert for a left translated daily cycle forming to signal the intermediate cycle decline.

http://imageshack.com/a/img834/5175/yqw6g.jpg

The peak on day 15 followed by a swing high and decline aligned with our expectation to see a left translated daily cycle. But on Friday stocks broke above the developing declining trend line. The formation of a swing low and regaining the 10 MA will signal that this was a half cycle low.

The entire Weekend Report can be found at Likesmoney Subscription Services

The Weekend Report discusses Dollar, Stocks, Gold, Miners, The CRB Index, & Bonds in terms of daily, weekly and yearly cycles.
Also included in the Weekend Report is the Likesmoney CycleTracker

To subscribe: http://likesmoneysubscriptionservices.wordpress.com/

For subscribers: the full Weekend Report can be found at Likesmoney Subscription Services at http://likesmoney.wordpress.com/

You can email me at likesmoney@gmail.com to receive a sample copy of the Weekend Report