The 12/191/4 Weekend Report Preview

The Dollar
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The dollar printed a daily cycle low on Tuesday. The dollar formed a swing low and broke above the declining trend line in a clear and convincing manner on Wednesday to signal a new daily cycle.

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Our expectation is to see this cycle form in a left translated manner and then decline into an intermediate cycle low.

Stocks
stockshttp://postimg.org/image/69wujdu9x/

Stocks printed a daily cycle low on Tuesday. It formed a swing low and delivered a clear and convincing declining trend line break on Thursday to confirm a new daily cycle. An ominous signal was sent on Friday with a 1623 million SOS print.

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Stocks have printed 5120 million Buying on Weakness since printing its October intermediate low. Which is more than double the normal BOW we see for a typical intermediate cycle decline.

That was somewhat counteracted by the 4858 million SOS that printed heading into the Tuesday’s daily cycle low. However since Tuesday, stocks have added another 2309 million SOS which brings the total SOS since the October intermediate low to 7167.

I believe that these historic huge SOS and BOW numbers are attributable to the bulls and bears fighting over what might turn out to be a major turning point for stocks.

And Friday’s big 1623 SOS is the second quadruple SOS day since the October ICL.

In the Weekend Report we will look at the 3 other times where stocks have printed a “Quad” SOS day.

The entire Weekend Report can be found at Likesmoney Subscription Services

The Weekend Report discusses Dollar, Stocks, Gold, Miners, The CRB Index, & Bonds in terms of daily, weekly and yearly cycles.
Also included in the Weekend Report is the Likesmoney CycleTracker

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Miner Divergence

0http://postimg.org/image/ueeyw199n/

The dollar fulfilled its cyclical duty today by breaking out to a new daily cycle high.

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Yesterday the dollar formed a swing low and delivered a clear and convincing trend line break to confirm a new daily cycle. Following a right translated cycle our expectation is to see the dollar go on to print a new daily cycle high. Today the dollar fulfilled that expectation.

With the dollar being late in the intermediate cycle we now turn our attention to signs that the dollar will form a left translated cycle that will lead to an intermediate cycle decline.

$$$ Weeklyhttp://postimg.org/image/sae2fgbel/

The new high today pushes the weekly cycle out to week 32. That makes this intermediate cycle stretched beyond the normal duration and therefore we can expect to see the new daily cycle form as a left translated, failed daily cycle. The dollar has only printed one other weekly cycle that stretched to 32 weeks, which makes this an outlier event.

Another possible explanation is that week 23 is acting as an intermediate cycle low and that this is really week 9. There was no failed daily cycle leading into the week 23 low. There have been occurrences of weekly cycles not failing, which makes this scenario a possibility. What strengthens this case for a week 23 low is that it falls into the normal timing band for an intermediate cycle low.

The two compelling things about a week 23 intermediate low is that, one, it makes this the second intermediate cycle of the year for the dollar. Many yearly cycles are comprised of two intermediate cycles, with the second intermediate cycle failing into the yearly cycle low. A failed weekly cycle typically peaks or or near week 8.

The second compelling thing about a week 23 intermediate low is how this now aligns with when the dollar has previously been at this level.

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The last three times that the dollar was turned back by this level resulted in either a severe yearly cycle decline or a three year cycle decline. So if this is week 9 of the second intermediate cycle of the year, that would leave up to 10 to 16 weeks for the dollar to decline into the intermediate and yearly cycle low.

Perhaps that is why despite the dollar being at an 8 year high the Miners are diverging off their recent lows.

gdx weeklyhttp://postimg.org/image/sofef1vi5/

The Miners appear to have left behind its yearly cycle low in early November.

And despite the dollar breaking out to a new higher today, the Miners also closed higher for the day.

zgdx dailyhttp://postimg.org/image/dv5c81d4t/

The daily Miner cycle peaked on day 14 and appears to have printed its daily cycle low on Tuesday, day 28. Tuesday printed as a higher low. Wednesday saw the Miners form a swing low and today they delivered a clear and convincing trend line break to signal a new daily cycle. A close above the declining 50 day MA would confirm a new daily cycle.

Clearer Picture

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The dollar broke above the declining trend line in a clear and convincing fashion today signaling a new daily cycle.

9 $$$http://postimg.org/image/tnckrjwk9/

Over the past 3 -4 weeks the dollar has done a masterful job obscuring its daily cycle count. However, today clears things up. The trend line break signals that day 23 was a daily cycle low and makes Tuesday a 21 day, right translated daily cycle low.

And since stocks and the dollar have recently been in lockstep, I believe that this also signals a new daily equity cycle.

99 $ SPXhttp://postimg.org/image/onf4jlqxl/

Tuesday was the lowest point following the day 36 peak. A break above Tuesday’s high of 2016.89 forms a swing low. With Tuesday being in the latter part of the daily cycle timing band, a swing low will likely mean a new daily cycle. A break above the declining trend line confirms a new daily cycle. Following a right translated cycle we expect to see this new daily cycle print a higher daily cycle high

And now a little follow up to last night’s post.

rsxhttp://postimg.org/image/4uzweii4v/

The RSX delivered a clear and convincing swing low on over 6 times the average 200 day volume to signal a new daily cycle. A break of the declining trend line confirms a new daily cycle.

Buy When Others Cry

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Capitulation

rsx 1 vhttp://postimg.org/image/x1pfdkvk3/

The volume today in the Russian ETF was over 8 times the average daily volume over the past 200 days.

2 rsx yearlyhttp://postimg.org/image/5m30ta7xh/

Backing things out we see that the Russian ETF prints a yearly low every 9 – 15 months. December is month 9.

rsx weeklyhttp://postimg.org/image/v65azptb9/

The Russian ETF tends to print an intermediate cycle low every 15 to 24 weeks. This week is week 20. And the RSX is in the process of printing a bullish reversal.

rsx dailyhttp://postimg.org/image/863914kv9/

The RSX prints a daily cycle low on average every 15 – 24 days. Tuesday is day 21 and the RSX printed a bullish reversal on historic volume.

The RSX is in the timing band for a daily, weekly and yearly cycle low. A break above 14.97 forms a swing low, signaling a new daily cycle. Russia delivered a surprise by raising its interest rates from 10.5 % to 17 % to shore up the ruble and defuse the currency crisis threatening its stricken economy.

That move may have just put a bottom to this drop.

The 12/15 Evening Report

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I believed that the 12/01 candle obscured my daily cycle count for gold.

Goldhttp://postimg.org/image/9gfro8gsd/

It breached the developing trend line near the timing band for the daily cycle low. Along with the bearish crossover of the TSI this looked in real time like an early daily cycle low.

But if 12/01 was the daily cycle low, then this new daily cycle would be forming in a left translated manner.

While we need to be open to that possibility, I think the GLD is showing us a better representation of gold’s daily cycle.

gldhttp://postimg.org/image/krifclnnh/

GLD does not have a trend line break on 12/01 and clearly has a cycle peak on day 22. A swing high has formed. Now a break of the daily cycle trend line would confirm the daily cycle decline. The good news is that gold is late in its daily cycle and we should see a swing low form soon after a trend line break.

Stocks formed a lower low today.

spxhttp://postimg.org/image/kdnj1s0nt/

Monday was day 42 for the daily equity cycle. Stocks are in their timing band to print a daily cycle low. A swing low should mark the daily cycle low. A break above 2018.69 forms a swing low. A break of the declining trend line confirms the new daily cycle. Since this daily cycle has locked in a right translated nature we can expect to see the new daily cycle go on to print a higher daily cycle high.

The 12/13/14 Weekend Report Preview

The Dollar
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The dollar has breached a significant resistance level.

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The past three times the dollar has hit the 89 level it declined into either a major yearly low, 3 year low, or a 15 year low. At 7 months the dollar has entered the timing band to seek out yearly cycle low. A left translated, failed weekly cycle is required for the yearly cycle decline. The 89 resistance level could send the dollar into a yearly cycle decline.

Stocks
stockshttp://postimg.org/image/69wujdu9x/

The daily equity cycle peaked the previous Friday on day 26. Then declined all week into Friday, which was day 41. Stocks are in their timing band to print a daily cycle low. A swing low and trend line break signals a new daily cycle.

21 spx dailyhttp://postimg.org/image/g4yxbaenl/

Stocks dropped over 73 points this week. Only one other time over the past 28 months that saw stocks dropped over 70 points in a week and that occurred during the intermediate cycle decline.

An intermediate decline at this point would likely take out the October low, producing a failed yearly cycle. In the Weekend Report we will look at that last two times stocks printed a failed yearly cycle. But stocks printed a huge, 1.7 BILLION Buying on Weakness on Friday. That is the largest BOW number that I have ever seen for the SPY. I did not notice that number building during the day so it surprised me to see it there at the end of the day. I know that we have been tracking the SOS numbers but I have to think that Friday trumps the SOS numbers that we have been seeing.

To put this in perspective, the total BOW leading into the October intermediate low was 3.131 Billion. The total accumulated BOW for this daily cycle, so far, is 4.501 Billion.

The entire Weekend Report can be found at Likesmoney Subscription Services

The Weekend Report discusses Dollar, Stocks, Gold, Miners, The CRB Index, & Bonds in terms of daily, weekly and yearly cycles.
Also included in the Weekend Report is the Likesmoney CycleTracker

To subscribe: http://likesmoneysubscriptionservices.wordpress.com/

For subscribers click here.

You can email me at likesmoney@gmail.com to receive a sample copy of the Weekend Report

Eye Popping BOW

000

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I was am getting ready to look over some charts in preparation for the Weekend Report. When I spied the BOW on the SPY I had to stop the presses and post a quick update.

bow

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The SPY printed a whopping 1.7 BILLION Buying on Weakness. That is the largest number printed that I have every seen for a Buying on Weakness number. Prior to today the SPY had accumulated a total of 2.785 billion in BOW for this daily cycle. Today’s number was over half of the accumulated total. That brings the new accumulated total to 4.501 Billion.

We will discuss this weekend how stocks are in their timing band for a daily cycle low and what the large BOW number might mean.

Still in a Decline

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While stocks posted a positive gain for the day, they are still caught in a daily cycle decline.

$ SPX

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Thursday was day 40 for the daily equity cycle. Stocks attempted to be print a bullish reversal early in the day. However stocks were rejected by the declining daily cycle trend line (as well as the day 10 MA) and closed near the lows of the day. The timing band for stocks runs 35 – 45 days, so there is still time for stocks to break lower.

And looking at the VIX makes me think we will see one more break lower.

$ VIX

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The VIX has been spiking since the daily cycle began its daily cycle decline. Yesterday the VIX filled a miner gap at the 18:45 level. Today after back testing the 50 day MA the VIX spiked higher, once again. There is a large gap at the 24 level that the VIX seems destined to fill.

I think that once that gap is filled we will see stocks print there daily cycle low. And since this daily cycle should form as a right translated cycle printing a higher low, we should see the next daily cycle print a higher high.

Something Sinister

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The daily equity peaked on Friday, day 36. It formed a daily swing high on Monday, signaling a daily cycle decline. Stocks delivered more bearish follow through today, dropping more the 1.6%. While stocks were due for a daily cycle decline, something more sinister may be afoot.

While stocks may have printed a total of 2.34 billion in Buying on Weakness during this daily cycle, they printed an even bigger 4.37 billion in Selling on Strength this cycle. The 4.37 billion is an unprecedented amount that I detailed here. In short, the huge SOS indicates an intermediate decline is near.

weekly spxhttp://postimg.org/image/enxou2qoz/

The weekly equity cycle peaked on week 7 and printed a clear and convincing swing high this week. While stocks are still near all-time highs the weekly True Strength Indicator is forming a bearish divergence which signals a change in trend.

The day 36 peak has locked in a right translated nature to this daily cycle. Meaning we are expecting that stocks print a higher low. The huge SOS numbers and bearish divergence on the weekly TSI is signaling that the next daily cycle will be at risk to form in a left translated manner, leading to an intermediate cycle decline.

Bullish Surprises

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Gold delivered another bullish surprise today.

goldhttp://postimg.org/image/b0qirqpzx/

Tuesday was day 7 for the daily gold cycle. Gold kicked off this daily cycle with an 80 point day on 12/01. After such a bullish day gold needed several days to consolidate that gain.

I believe that something has changed. Since the beginning of this intermediate cycle gold has been delivering bullish surprises. I believe that surprises tend to come on the side of the trend. We may be seeing the beginning of a new trend for gold.

gold 2http://postimg.org/image/elmeayujh/

Gold’s rally was halted today by the June low. If our daily count is correct, and today is day 7 then we should see gold break through this level. One of the hints that today is day 7 is that the TSI has breached its declining trend line, suggesting continued strength. If 12/01 did not begin a new daily cycle then that would make today day 22 and then we could see gold get turned back here into a daily cycle low.