The 9/18/14 Evening Report

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The daily equity cycle peaked on day 19 and then declined. It printed its lowest point on day 26 before forming a swing low. Today saw stocks break out to new highs.

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The normal timing band for a daily cycle low runs from day 30 through day 45. However the breakout to new highs has me thinking that a 26 day daily cycle low may have left behind.

2 spx lows

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Stocks have printed sub-30 day daily cycle lows in the past as evidenced above. The above chart shows a 28 day daily cycle low formed in September of 2012 and December of 2012 saw stocks leave behind a 29 day daily cycle low.

Bonds appear to be ready to print a daily cycle low.

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Bonds formed a lower low on day 19. Bonds are in the timing band to form a daily cycle low. A swing low and trend line break will signal a new daily cycle. With the weekly count at week 11, we should see another failed daily cycle following once a daily cycle low forms.

The 9/18/14 Morning Update

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The dollar has been powering out of its three year cycle low that it left behind in May. The bullish surprise yesterday looks like the dollar has printed a stealth daily cycle low.

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A swing high formed on Tuesday, which was day 26 for the dollar’s daily cycle. Being that late in the daily cycle the dollar should have rolled over into its daily cycle low. The break to new highs indicate a new daily cycle.

Now the dollar is in week 19 for the intermediate cycle. The dollar is already in its timing band to seek out an intermediate cycle low. I suspect we will see the dollar break above the previous three year peak and then reverse into an intermediate cycle decline. A left translated, failed daily cycle is required for an intermediate cycle decline. Therefore we should see this new daily cycle roll over on or before day 8.

The dollar printed a new daily cycle high on Monday, which was day 25. With the dollar being so late in its daily cycle a swing high has good odds of marking the cycle peak. Today the dollar formed a swing high off of the day 25 peak.

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After gaining over 3 points over the past month the dollar began trading sideways last week. That has eased the distance the dollar has to travel to breach the daily cycle trend line. A trend line breach is a requirement as the dollar seeks out its daily cycle low.

The current daily cycle has locked in a right translated nature. Therefore we can expect the next daily cycle to go on to print a higher daily cycle high.

I do not think that it is a coincidence that as the dollar printed a swing high that we witnessed a swing low form in other asset classes.

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Gold formed a swing low today. Tuesday was day 30 for gold’s daily cycle. It is getting late in gold’s daily cycle so the odds are good here that this will mark gold’s daily cycle low. A break above the declining trend line will confirm a new daily cycle.

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Oil formed a swing low last week, but broke above the declining trend line today. Tuesday’s clear and convincing trend line break makes today day 3 for oil’s new daily cycle.

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The daily equity cycle peaked on day 19 and trended lower since. It printed its lowest point on Monday, day 26. Today’s clear and convincing swing low could signal a new daily cycle. The trouble is that Monday is 4 days shy of the beginning of the normal timing band for a daily cycle low. A break above the day 19 will be needed provide confirmation of a new daily cycle.

Dollar Strength

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The dollar printed a new daily cycle high today.

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Monday was day 25 for the dollar’s daily cycle. And although the dollar made another higher high today, the True Strength Indicator continued trending lower. The dollar has essentially move the sideways for the past five days. This has lessened the distance needed to breach the daily cycle trend line, which the dollar will need to do before printing a daily cycle low. The dollar still needs to print a swing high before declining into a daily cycle low. A break below 84.26 now forms a swing high.

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Since peaking on day 19 stocks have been moving steadily lower and appear to be headed into a daily cycle low. But tonight I wanted to show you the weekly chart. Stocks formed a weekly swing high last week. Breaking lower today has caused stocks to deliver a bearish crossover on the weekly True Strength Indicator. And a bearish crossover on the weekly TSI is a reliable indicator of an intermediate cycle decline.

Bonds have been in a daily cycle decline since late August.

TLT

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The daily bond cycle peaked on day 7. Bonds broke below the previous daily cycle low on Wednesday producing a failed daly cycle. They continued to decline into Friday, which was day 16. Today bonds formed a swing low. A break above the daily cycle trend line will confirm a new daily cycle. The failed daily cycle signals an intermediate cycle decline for bonds. So we can expect that the rally into a new daily cycle should be short lived.

The 9/12/14 Weekend Report Preview

Dollar:

The Dollar
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The dollar’s daily cycle peaked on Tuesday, day 21. And has since traded sideways and as yet to print a swing high.

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The dollar will need to break below the daily cycle trend line to confirm the daily cycle decline. By trading sideways, that has allowed the dollar to consolidate and made it easier for the dollar to deliver a trend line break. A peak on day 21 has locked in a right translated nature to this daily cycle. Therefore our expectation is to see the next daily cycle go on to print a higher daily cycle high.

Stocks
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Stocks peaked on day 19 and printed a lower low on Friday, day 25. The timing band for a daily cycle low runs from day 30 through day 45. So, it is possible that stocks could find support at the 50 day MA, print a half cycle low, and continue higher.

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However stocks did lose on the 10 MA on Tuesday. And the True Strength Indicator has delivered a Zero Line Crossover. A bearish Zero Line Crossover is associated with a daily cycle decline. We need to be open to the possibility that stocks could even print an early daily cycle low.

The entire Weekend Report can be found at Likesmoney Subscription Services

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Also included in the Weekend Report is the Likesmoney CycleTracker

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Black Gold

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We will begin tonight looking at something that I do not spend much time on here but I do include an update on in the Weekend Report: Oil.

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Since peaking above 107 in June, oil has been locked in a steady yearly cycle decline. Oil has now printed two straight failed daily cycles and currently sits in the timing band to print a daily cycle low. Since August there has been a bullish divergence developing on the daily True Strength Indicator. Now late in the timing band for a daily cycle low we see that Oil has printed a bullish reversal on big volume. There is a good likelihood that oil printed a daily cycle low. A swing low and a break of the declining trend line is needed to confirm a new daily cycle. And for those of you that read the Weekend Report will know that this new daily cycle could also mark a new yearly cycle.

I think that gold is also seeking out its yearly cycle low. In order to decline into a yearly cycle low, there needs to be a failed intermediate cycle. Today gold printed a failed intermediate cycle.

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Gold’s weekly cycle peaked on week 5 and is currently at week 14. There is enough time left in the intermediate cycle to allow for one more failed daily cycle to print for gold.

But here is something to keep an open mind about — Gold has now printed its lowest point of the year following the peak in March. So, technically speaking, gold could be in the process of forming a yearly cycle low. Therefore gold could deliver a bullish surprise once a daily cycle low prints and launch into a new intermediate mediate cycle.

Its About Time

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Tuesday was day 22 for the daily dollar cycle. The dollar’s daily cycle normally runs 18 – 25 days from trough to trough. So the dollar is in its timing band to print a daily cycle low.

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The bearish reversal on day 21 still stands as the cycle peak. A swing high this late in the daily cycle has a good chance of marking the daily cycle decline.

The dollar has also entered its timing band for an intermediate cycle decline.

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The dollar has printed another higher high this week. Week 18 begins the timing band for an intermediate cycle low. The dollar is on the verge of a daily cycle decline. Following that decline a new daily cycle should extend the weekly cycle out by about 6 more weeks to accommodate for a failed daily cycle to print.

Also notice that the EURO is getting late in its weekly cycle. The EURO is due to begin a new intermediate cycle. Which should coincide with the intermediate dollar decline.

Bearish Signals

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There are some bearish signals showing up both for the dollar and for stocks.

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Tuesday was day 21 for the dollar’s daily cycle and the dollar once again printed a higher daily cycle high. Yet, today’s bearish reversal along with the True Strength Indicator about to deliver a bearish crossover signal a daily cycle decline is imminent. With the dollar this far into its timing band for a daily cycle low, a swing high has good odds of signaling a daily cycle decline. A break below 84.05 forms a daily swing high.

Stocks also broke lower today.

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Last Thursday the daily equity cycle peaked on day 19. A swing high formed on Friday and then stocks broke lower the past 2 days. Tuesday was day 22 and we see that stocks have managed to close below 10 day moving average as well as close below the previous daily cycle high. Stocks could be declining into a half cycle low but there are some things on the weekly chart that point to a bigger correction.

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Stocks formed a weekly swing high. The weekly TSI has been forming a bearish divergence and is about to deliver a bearish crossover. Which all point to an intermediate cycle decline. Should week 4 remain as the cycle peak, then we could see stocks trend lower for the next 13 to 17 weeks.

The Mighty Dollar

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The dollar pushed to a new daily cycle high again today.

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Monday was day 20 for the dollar’s daily cycle. The dollar is assured forming in a right translated cycle which means that our expectation is to see the next daily cycle print a higher daily cycle high.

The weekly dollar cycle is at week 18. It is quite likely that the next daily cycle will be a failed daily cycle that leads into an intermediate cycle decline.

And as the dollar keeps setting new daily cycle highs, we see gold setting lower lows as it seeks out its daily cycle low.

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Gold is on day 24 for its daily cycle and as we just stated, printed a lower low. It looks like gold will continue lower until the dollar finally forms it swing high.

With the dollar being due for its daily cycle decline, that should allow gold to rally into a new daily cycle. However gold has breached its yearly cycle trend line indicating that gold has begun its yearly cycle decline. Therefore once gold begins a new daily cycle that rally should be brief. Gold should continue to print failed daily cycles as it seeks out it yearly cycle low. Since a cycle low is the lowest part following the cycle peak, we should see gold break below 1240.20 on its way to printing its yearly cycle low.

The 9/05/14 Weekend Report Preview

The Dollar
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The dollar’s current daily cycle printed a new high on Friday, day 19. The dollar has entered its timing band for a daily cycle low and will likely form one over the next 5 – 10 days. A peak on day 19 virtually assures us that this daily cycle will form in a right translated manner. Which means that we should see another daily cycle that follows and prints a higher daily cycle high.

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Allowing for the current daily cycle to conclude and then one more daily cycle would bring the intermediate cycle out to weeks 23 – 26, which is in the latter part of its timing band for an intermediate cycle low. Therefore we can expect that this next daily dollar cycle to form in a left translated manner and fail.

Stocks
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Stocks printed a higher high on Thursday, which was day 19. The odds are beginning to shift that this daily cycle will form in a right translated manner.

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While stocks did form a swing high on Friday, the rally into the close suggest that stocks will continue higher next week. Stocks appear to have back tested the previous daily cycle high. The TSI is about to deliver a bullish crossover which also suggest an underlying strength.

The entire Weekend Report can be found at Likesmoney Subscription Services

The Weekend Report discusses Dollar, Stocks, Gold, Miners, The CRB Index, & Bonds in terms of daily, weekly and yearly cycles.
Also included in the Weekend Report is the Likesmoney CycleTracker

To subscribe: http://likesmoneysubscriptionservices.wordpress.com/

For subscribers click here.

You can email me at likesmoney@gmail.com to receive a sample copy of the Weekend Report